Former Winnipeg mayor Glenn Murray is the undisputed front-runner for the city’s next mayor, according to a Probe Research poll.
Murray, who served as Winnipeg’s mayor from 1998 to 2004, was the preferred mayoral candidate of 44 percent of outright voters who responded to Probe’s online poll of 622 Winnipeg adults conducted July 14-25.
Murray had a substantial lead over the other 11 registered candidates, none of whom garnered more than 20 percent support from definite voters in the Probe survey.
“The former mayor is in a strong position entering the next phase of the campaign. He benefits from a strong lead and the perception that his considerable political experience matters,” Probe Research said in the research paper.
Murray served one full term and part of a second term as mayor of Winnipeg before resigning to run for federal office. He has also served as an Ontario Liberal, a member of the provincial parliament and a cabinet minister.
Murray said he wasn’t taking his big lead for granted.
“I do 10 or 12 events on weekends, seven to 12 on weekdays. We want to be the hardest working campaign,” Murray said Thursday in The Forks.
Two terms St. James Coun. Scott Gillingham came in second in the poll, attracting 16 percent of definite voters who responded.
Former Winnipeg Center Liberal MP Robert-Falcon Ouellette was third with 13 per cent.
“The current St. James councilor and former Winnipeg Central Liberal are the next leading contenders, but both have a long way to go before they pose a significant threat to Murray’s mayoral bid,” Probe said.
No other candidate managed to get into double digits.
Business consultant Jenny Motkaluk, who received 38 per cent of the vote in the 2018 Winnipeg mayoral race, was fourth with eight per cent support, the Probe survey found.
Probe said Motkaluk “has key pockets of support but is dealing with highly negative views of her after she made comments criticizing The Forks over their plans to celebrate Canada Day.”
Entrepreneur and writer Sean Lowney, who was the first candidate to announce his intention to enter the race, came in fifth with six percent.
“Loney is believed to have good ideas, but suffers from a significant lack of name recognition — and may be losing support from Murray and (to a lesser extent) Ouellette,” Probe said.
Former Manitoba Liberal Party leader and lawyer Rana Bokhari is in sixth place with four per cent.
“Bohari’s available voter base is relatively small,” Probe said, adding that it was “surprising given her tenure as former provincial Liberal leader.”
Rick Shawn, who owns The Wilderness Supply, was supported by three percent of those polled.
Security company owner Don Woodstock, food delivery driver Jessica Peebles and 2018 mayoral hopeful Desmond Thomas each received two percent.
Grocery store worker Chris Clasio and engineer Idris Adelakun each attracted one percent.
Murray’s lead is significant, not insurmountable
Probe Research partner Mary Agnes Welch said Murray’s lead over all other candidates was significant three months before the civic election. She also described the former mayor’s support as very broad.
“He currently has support among critical groups of voters. Women, older people – who vote! – and kind of like these southern suburbs of Winnipeg. He already has access to these really critical constituencies,” Welch said outside the Probe office in downtown Winnipeg.
She also noted that Murray’s lead is not insurmountable. In the 2014 Winnipeg mayoral race, former MLA and NDP MP Judy Wasylycia-Leis had a big lead over the summer, but ended up losing to Brian Bowman on election day.
Gillingham said he is not concerned about Murray’s lead at the moment.
“Three months is a long way until election day,” he told City Hall. “Mr Murray has a recognizable name. We understand that he advertised while the survey was being conducted.”
St. James Coun. Scott Gillingham is second in the Probe poll with 16 percent support. (CBC)
Probe Research also asked survey respondents how likely they were to vote for registered candidates and potential candidates. Murray remained the most popular candidate, albeit with a smaller lead over Gillingham and Ouellette.
Sixty-seven percent of those polled said they would definitely or possibly vote for Murray, compared to 51 percent for Gillingham and 50 percent for Ouellette.
Murray and Gillingham were active during the campaign, each making several public policy announcements. Ouellette hasn’t made news since signing up in May.
“I know you’re wondering why I’m not running around a little longer,” Ouellette said Thursday in an interview at the Riel House National Historic Site in St. Vital.
“We’re going out to a few events and spending time working with the team, but also just enjoying the summer. The campaign will be very long. There are still 92 days until the election.”
Of the registered candidates, Motkaluk garnered the most negative sentiment, with 43 percent of respondents saying they would definitely not vote for her.
The Probe poll also found Murray to be the candidate of choice for NDP and Liberal voters who participated in the poll, while Gillingham was the preferred candidate for the Progressive Conservatives.
Robert-Falcon Ouellet is third with 13 percent, although he hasn’t made news since registering in May. (Bartley Kives/CBC)
Probe Research conducted its survey using a representative sample of respondents drawn from the firm’s own Winnipeg panel and supplemented with respondents from a national panel.
As an online panel, no sampling error can be attributed. Probe said a random and representative convenience sample of 622 adults would have a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The Winnipeg election is scheduled for October 26.
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