Amanda Nunes is at a crossroads.
In the main event of UFC 277 on Saturday, “The Lioness” has a chance to erase the near-bitter taste of a loss to Julianna Peña, a loss that cost her the UFC bantamweight title, a seven-year undefeated streak and possibly have her case unequivocally recognized for the greatest women’s fighter of all time.
If Nunes goes out and gets through Peña, as he’s expected to do the first time around, and as he’s done with so many challengers in the past, then December’s upset will be remembered as a landmark moment in an otherwise flawless career. If Peña wins again, suddenly one of MMA’s biggest upsets will look more like passing the torch to an opponent who has Nunes’ number every day of the week. Suffice it to say, there’s a lot more on the line in this rematch than a shiny piece of metal.
The co-main event features two of the world’s best flyweights competing for an interim title with undisputed champion Daveson Figueiredo temporarily sidelined. On the one hand, former champion Brandon Moreno wants to take the gold again and set up a fourth fight with his Brazilian rival; on the other hand, Kai Cara-France is looking to avenge his 2019 loss to Moreno and bring home another title in New Zealand’s City Kickboxing.
In other main card action, veteran heavyweight Derrick Lewis stands in the way of Sergey Pavlovic challenging for a top 10 spot, Alexander Pantoja and Alex Perez meet in a flyweight battle that could put a new title challenger at Figueiredo, and Magomed Ankalaev could potentially secure a title shot with an excellent performance against light heavyweight stalwart Anthony Smith.
What: UFC 277
Where: American Airlines Center in Dallas
When: Saturday, July 30. Early four-game prelims begin on ESPN+ at 6:00 PM ET, followed by four-game prelims on ABC, ESPN and ESPN+ at 8:00 PM ET. The five-fight main card begins at 10:00 PM ET and is available exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate position in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings)
Julianna Peña (1) vs. Amanda Nunes (2)
Is this a new beginning for Amanda Nunes or the beginning of the end?
Nunes has been open about being satisfied with everything she has accomplished in her extraordinary career, going so far as to say in a June 2020 interview that she is considering retirement. She won UFC titles in two divisions. She wants to train someday. She is a mother. she’s happy And if there’s one thing we know in the fighting game, it’s that contentment can lead to unhappiness when it’s time to get back into that cage.
None of these factors are why Julianna Peña defeated Nunes in their first meeting. Peña has a style tailor-made to bring Nunes down: Great wrestling, a huge amount of well-earned confidence and a bottomless tank of gas. All of those strengths were on display when she upset Nunes, and there’s no reason to believe she can’t do it again, this time equipped with the knowledge that her strategy works not just in theory, but in reality.
Skill for skill, we know Nunes is a better fighter than Peña. She has the knockout power advantage and is a better grappler, so I’m willing to accept the argument that she didn’t perform to the best of her abilities at UFC 269. Ideally, Nunes looks at this loss as a valuable one learning experience and we see a renewed fire in her.
I’ve just seen too many Nunes wins to count, and while I think she’ll be more methodical than dominant on Saturday with an emphasis on conserving her energy, this version of Nunes is good enough to to defeat Peña. “The Venezuelan Vixen” will do her best to beat Nunes again and while I expect her to take Nunes out in 25 minutes, I also expect Nunes to get the better of a competitive decision.
Nunes, #Andagain.
Pick: Nunes
Brandon Moreno (2) vs. Kai Kara-France (T4)
Speaking of #AndAgain, I like Brandon Moreno’s chances to become champion once again.
Kai Kara-France has never looked better, but Moreno has also improved by leaps and bounds since their first meeting and he already had the edge then. Difficult to deal with Moreno’s aggression, not to mention the variety of his attacks. He has more ways to win this one.
On the other hand, Cara-France has a heavy right hand and excellent foot time. He also showed solid takedown defense against Askar Askarov, one of the best fighters in the flyweight division, so if Moreno decides to get some wrestling involved, Cara-France is ready for it. These two are very close, and while Moreno won a clear decision the first time, another 10 minutes to work could have changed the tone of this match.
The safe bet is to go with the fighter who has done this championship dance before and that is Moreno. Three times actually. It’s the upside in the title fight that makes me feel confident that he’ll get the better of Kara-France again, although I’m also confident that this isn’t the last time we see Kara-France fight for a UFC belt .
Moreno by decision.
Choice: Moreno
Derrick Lewis (6) vs. Sergey Pavlovich
At the risk of being the subject of his next roast, I’ll just say it: I don’t think Derrick Lewis can beat high-level forwards anymore.
Here are Lewis’ recent wins: Chris Daukaus (Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist), Curtis Blades (vastly improved hands, but a fighter at heart), Alexey Oleynik (submission specialist with an aversion to standing up), and Ilir Latifi (a solid boxer, but not has been threatening to knock anyone out for years). We know Lewis can handle some heady competition. We don’t know if he can win a back-and-forth battle on the feet anymore.
We also don’t know how good Sergey Pavlovich’s shot actually is, but there’s plenty of evidence that the massive Russian can do it with his hands. Twelve knockouts, all in the first round, that’s a recipe for success against the often slow-starting Lewis. If Pavlovich finds time early, Lewis could be in serious danger of taking his third knockout loss in his last four fights.
Lewis must work to close the gap and harass Pavlovic against the fence as he looks for rounds to put him on his back. One thing we know for sure is that Lewis’ ground-and-pound is as deadly as ever. Pavlovic is a plus athlete with grappling experience, so much like Lewis himself, he can probably just get out of the bottom position, but fighting on the ground is a good way for Lewis to do damage to his bigger opponent.
Pavlovich sits just outside the top 15 of the MMA Fighting Global Rankings and is poised for a big jump up at Lewis’ expense. He takes this one by knockout.
Selection: Pavlovich
Alexandre Pantoja (7) vs. Alex Perez (8)
The fly category is ridiculously deep right now.
In this case, you could put Alexander Pantoja and Alex Perez in an interim title fight, and while they don’t have the name recognition of Moreno and Cara-France, the quality of the competition is just as high. Perez has already fought for a title in the UFC – albeit as an understudy – and Pantoja owns two wins over Moreno (one from their season on The Ultimate Fighter).
I have Pantoja sliding into that next contender spot with a win over Perez on Saturday. Perez has quick hands and solid grappling, the latter of which could give Pantoja trouble, but Pantoja packs a serious punch when he starts throwing, and his jiu-jitsu is elite. There aren’t many places Perez can take this fight where Pantoja isn’t a threat.
The other factor to consider here is that Perez is prone to takedowns, while Pantoja never finished. If you want this one to go the distance then Pantoja is the pick all the way. I see these two having a lively exchange in the standup and on the ground in round 1 before Pantoja pulls away and finds a submission in round 2.
Choice: Pantoja
Magomed Ankalaev (7) vs. Anthony Smith (8)
I understand the whole “Anthony Smith is going to force Magomed Ankalaev to bring out the dog” point of this matchup and why it should work in Smith’s favor, but I think Ankalaev is up for the challenge.
Note that Ankalaev is a solid counter-attacker who uses smart moves to avoid shootouts. Even if Smith’s plan is to do so casually, Ankalaev has the knack of preventing action from becoming inaction. Look for his precision and counter to thwart Smith’s early efforts to push the pace.
As the battle continues, this is where Smith’s big game experience comes into play. You know he means it when he says there’s nothing about Ankalaev that scares him, and he won’t be afraid to take risks to stop Ankalaev’s eight-fight winning streak. Smith is the most dangerous type of opponent for Ankalaev: highly skilled, highly motivated and with more to gain than lose.
Ankalaev has yet to make a statement to become a clear #1 contender, and while I’m picking him to overcome adversity and win a decision against Smith, I doubt he dominates in such a way that the matchmakers move him to the top of the line.
Selection: Ankalaev
Preliminary
Alex Morono defeated Matthew Semelsberger
Drew Dober defeated Rafael Alves
Don’Tale Mayes def. Hamdi Abdelwahab
Drakar Klose beat Rafa Garcia
Michael Morales defeated Adam Fugit
Ji Yeon Kim defeated Joseline Edwards
Nicolae Negumerianu defeated Igor Potieria
Orion Cosce defeated Blood Diamond
Add Comment