JIUQUAN, CHINA – JUNE 17: The Shenzhou-12 manned spacecraft of the China Manned Space Agency aboard… [+] the Long March-2F rocket blasted off with three Chinese astronauts on board at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center on June 17, 2021 in Jiuquan, Gansu Province, China. The crew of the Shenzhou-12 spacecraft will be carried on the Long March-2F rocket launched to the space station that China is building from the Gobi desert, marking the country’s first manned mission in nearly five years. (Photo by Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)
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A large Chinese rocket booster is expected to make an uncontrolled descent from orbit to Earth’s surface sometime on Saturday.
It is very likely that most of the 23-ton hunk of metal, tanks and other components will burn up as it tears through the atmosphere at literally lightning speed. Analysts expect that a ton or two of debris could survive all the way to the surface, falling on a long debris field that could cover a large area of territory.
Fortunately, there’s a good chance most of what’s left of the ten-story Long March 5B (aka CZ-5B) rocket booster will end up in the ocean.
A number of experts and organizations have been tracking the used missile since it became clear earlier this week that it would not be headed for a controlled disposal. Latest forecasts as of Saturday morning sometime around noon Pacific time.
During the projected re-entry window, the CZ-5B is expected to make a wide arc across the Southern Hemisphere, mostly passing over large swathes of the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, but also flying over parts of South America, China and other Asian nations.
The latest tracking and impact forecasts from the US Space Force predict re-entry to occur as soon as 9:20 a.m. PT on Saturday.
The booster successfully sent the new Wentian Laboratory Module to the Tiangong Space Station last weekend. But the CZ-5B doesn’t seem to have the ability to do a controlled re-entry.
The previous two missions using the large booster also ended in uncontrolled re-entries, with one landing in the ocean and another dropping debris over West Africa. No major damage or casualties were reported in this case.
The bottom line is that the risk to people and property is low, but can easily be reduced to virtually zero risk with a few modifications that are common in the industry.
Once inside the intended re-entry window, the lack of news is good news, as it will take some time to determine where the missile debris ended up, especially if it falls harmlessly and largely unnoticed in the ocean.
An evolving story….
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