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If Russia used chemical weapons in Ukraine, how would we know?

As Russian forces continued to approach the southern city of Mariupol this week, statements it became clear that they had used chemical weapons to drive out a group of Ukrainian fighters hiding in a steel factory. There is no evidence to support the claim, and Russia has denied it, but officials from Ukraine and the United Kingdom say they are investigating.

We spoke with several experts on how to evaluate and investigate such allegations.

What is a chemical weapon?

The Chemical Weapons Convention, which entered into force in 1997 and was signed by 193 countries, including Ukraine and Russia, lists compounds that countries are banned from using in weapons.

The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), which implements the Convention, divides chemical weapons into four categories:

  • Suffocating agents, such as chlorine gas, which irritate the nose and throat and cause the lungs to secrete fluid, causing a drowning effect.

  • Blister agents, such as mustard gas, which cause life-threatening blisters on the eyes, skin and respiratory tract.

  • Nervous agents, such as Novice or sarin, that affect the nervous system and are absorbed through the skin and lungs.

  • Blood agents, such as hydrogen cyanide, that prevent cells from absorbing oxygen, causing suffocation.

During war, these chemicals are usually sprayed into the air as gas, steam, aerosol, dust or liquid using munitions such as mortars, mines, missiles or artillery shells.

“Some are designed to disperse very quickly. Some are designed to be more permanent and to hold on and serve the so-called denial zone, to somehow keep everyone out, “said Jeffrey Knopf, a professor of nonproliferation and terrorism research at the Middlebury Institute for International Studies. Monterey, California.

A Syrian boy holds an oxygen mask on the face of a baby in a makeshift hospital after a reported gas attack on the rebel-held city of Duma in the eastern Guta region on the outskirts of the Syrian capital Damascus on January 22, 2018. (Hassan Mohammed / AFP / Getty Images)

Any chemical agent that can be reassigned and used to injure people in a conflict or violent attack can be a chemical weapon, Knopf said. For example, large quantities of tear gas can be used as a weapon against civilians.

Along with biological and nuclear weapons, chemical weapons are also considered weapons of mass destructionwhich are controlled by a series of treaties that aim to prevent nations from acquiring and using them.

When were they used?

World War I (1914-1918)

Chlorine and mustard gas were first used by warring parties during the First World War, especially on the Western Front, where neither country made a profit from the traditional trench warfare. Seven years after the war, the first international treaty banning chemical weapons, the Geneva Protocol, was signed, although it does not ban the production and storage of chemical agents.

World War II (1939-1945)

Although Nazi Germany found nerve agents, they were not used on the battlefield in Europe. However, the Nazis used the fumigant hydrogen cyanide or Cyclone B and other poisonous gases to kill millions of Jews in concentration camps.

Japan also used mustard gas and other poisonous gases in its war with China.

Korean and Vietnam Wars (1950-1975)

Although technically not a chemical weapon, the incendiary compound known as napalm was used in both wars by devastating American forces, burning large areas and causing severe burns and death. It was also used during the Second World War.

Iraq (1980s)

In March 1988, Saddam Hussein’s Iraqi regime used mustard gas and sarin to attack the city of Halabja during its war against Kurdish rebels. Several thousand civilians are believed to have been killed. Iraq has also used mustard gas and nerve agents in its eight-year war with Iran. Iraq has accused Iran of using chemical weapons during the war.

Kurd prays over the grave of a relative killed in the 1988 Halabja chemical attack in the Kurdish city, 300 km northeast of Baghdad, on March 16, 2021 (Shwan Mohammed / AFP / Getty Images)

Japan (1994, 1995)

The Doomsday cult of Aum Shinrikyo carried out two sarin gas attacks, one on the Tokyo subway in March 1995, which killed 14 and wounded thousands, and another in Matsumoto a year earlier, which eventually killed eight people.

Syrian Civil War (2011-)

Chemical weapons such as sarin and chlorine were used repeatedly during the still-ongoing 11-year civil war. One of the most famous cases was a sarin attack in 2013 in the eastern Guta region, near the capital Damascus. Estimates of the death toll range from a few hundred to more than 1,400. This led to a UN investigation that prompted Bashar al-Assad’s regime to sign the Chemical Weapons Convention, which he has violated several times since.

The armed Islamist organization ISIS, one of several groups fighting Syrian forces, is also suspected of using mustard gas during the war.

There are other isolated cases of nerve agents and chemical weapons used for targeting facesincluding allegedly from Russia.

Have chemical weapons been used in Mariupol?

Members of the far-right Azov Battalion, which is fighting the Ukrainian military, said three of its fighters were dizzy and short of breath after a drone dropped an explosive device near the steel plant where they were hiding. Some describe a sweet taste in their mouth and seeing white smoke.

Most experts say there is not enough evidence to conclude that the symptoms are the result of a chemical attack.

A view shows the Azovstal Iron and Steel Works plant behind buildings damaged during the Ukrainian-Russian conflict in Mariupol on April 7. (Alexander Ermochenko / Reuters)

Dan Cachet, a Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London and a chemical warfare expert, analyzes the reports in thread on Twitter and said there may be other explanations for the type of symptoms described by the soldiers, given that they were at an industrial site in a city that had been mercilessly shelled over the past month and a half.

“There are many opportunities in industrial conditions for conventional or incendiary weapons to cause chemical problems due to fires and explosions,” he wrote. “Also, look at the wider environment. Mariupol is a large toxic combustion pit at the moment.

It is difficult to confirm the allegations without photos or video of the scene, said Angela Kane, the former UN High Representative for Disarmament Affairs who led the team investigating the 2013 sarin attack in Guta, Syria.

In this investigation, investigators were on the scene within five days of the attack and submitted their final report, concluding that sarin had been used against civilians, as in three other attacks, four months later.

WATCH Former US Defense Secretary Andrew Weber on allegations of chemical weapons use:

It is difficult to determine whether Russia has used chemical weapons, says an expert

Although it will be difficult to determine whether Russia has released a poisonous substance over Mariupol if chemical weapons are used, they are likely to continue to be used in larger quantities, said former Assistant Secretary of Defense Andrew Weber. 5:27

Why are they used?

Most experts say that the purpose of chemical weapons is primarily to terrorize the civilian population psychologically and that they are usually not effective as tactics on the battlefield, especially since most professional soldiers are equipped with equipment to protect against them.

You can at least have a chance to hide from missiles, but you can’t hide from the air you breathe. – Prof. Katarzyna Zisk, Norwegian Institute for Defense Research

“This could be something that can help break the will to resist and morale,” said Katarzyna Zisk, a professor of international relations and contemporary history at the Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies in Oslo. “You can at least have a chance to hide from missiles, but you can’t hide from the air you breathe.”

When used by non-state actors, such as terrorist organizations, chemical weapons can help fighters “hit their weight,” she said.

In urban conditions, they could be a way to speed up the end of the battle and force the enemy to make concessions, Zisk said.

“City warfare is very difficult and often very long because its people can hide in buildings and you have to take over building after building,” she said.

After the Iran-Iraq war, chemical weapons were used primarily as measures to fight insurgents against the country’s own population, not against other countries, Knopf said.

A Russian soldier collects weapons found while patrolling the Mariupol Theater, which was bombed on March 16 this week in Mariupol. (Alexander Nemenpv / AFP / Getty Images)

Can you protect yourself from them?

Most military personnel have protective equipment and units that are trained to work in a polluted environment, Zisk said, but civilians usually do not have such protection.

Treatment after exposure to chemical weapons may not always be possible. In the case of some nerve agents, for example, antidotes should be administered within minutes of exposure.

The amount and concentration of the chemical also affect how deadly it is. In the Tokyo subway attack, for example, sarin used was a pure form that evaporates quickly, said Kane, who is now a respected contributor to Sam Nunn’s Nuclear Threat Initiative in Washington, DC.

“There were deaths, but not as many as might be expected,” she said.

In Guta, sarin is cut with another chemical and lasts longer, causing more deaths.

Subway passengers affected by sarin gas placed in Tokyo’s central subways were transported to St. Luke’s International Hospital in Tokyo on March 20, 1995 (Chikumo Chiaki / Associated Press).

How do you prove they were …