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President Biden’s position among Americans has improved slightly over the past two months, but he remains in negative territory in most assessments of his performance, and Republicans have significant advantages over Democrats in key economic indicators that shape the midterm election. on the Washington Post-ABC News.
The new poll, while better for the president and his party from its lowest point two months ago, nonetheless highlights the winds facing Democratic candidates ahead of the November vote. With an overall approval rating of 42 percent, Biden received low marks for his governance of the economy and inflation, and Republicans have significantly more confidence than Democrats in both measures.
More than 9 out of 10 Americans say they are at least concerned about the rate of inflation, which has been at its 40-year high in recent months. This includes 44 percent, which are categorized as “upset.” Republicans are much more likely to call themselves inflation-stricken than independents or Democrats.
At the same time, half of all Americans (50 percent) say well-paid jobs are easy to find in their communities, findings that reflect unemployment levels close to half a century low and, anecdotally, many signs of “hiring” “In business windows across the country. Less than 43 percent say these jobs are hard to find. Republicans, who generally view the economy more negatively than Democrats, may be surprisingly more inclined to say that well-paid jobs are easy to find.
As a positive indicator for Biden and his party, the Post-ABC poll also shows Democrats moving to rough parity with Republicans over their intentions to vote in the House of Representatives in November, often seen as a key indicator of potential changes in the balance sheet. power. Republicans need a five-seat net profit to take control of the House of Representatives, which would allow them to block Biden’s agenda for the last half of his term.
Today, 46 percent of registered voters say they would vote for a Democrat in their congressional district, compared to 45 percent who say they would vote for Republicans. Based on historical models, Democrats are likely to need a greater advantage to avoid losing their majority.
Yet last fall, Republicans had a 10-point lead, leading seven points in February on what is known as the general vote. Almost all of the change since February is the result of a shift toward Democrats among the self-determined independents, a group that may be unstable in opinion polls.
Democrats have a difference of 12 points among voters aged 18 to 39; in February, these voters were roughly equally divided between the two parties. Democrats have an advantage over these younger voters, although they disapprove of Biden’s performance by 13 points, 52 percent to 39 percent.
The same pattern is observed among independent registered voters. This group disapproves of Biden by 21 points, but shares 42-42 in the congressional vote.
Despite the disappearance the difference between the two countries, which party members say they will support in November, Republicans and Independent Republicans continue to say they are safer to vote in November than Democrats, by 10 percentage points in the latest poll.
Biden’s overall approval rating among adult eligible voters is five points higher than in February, when 37 percent of Americans said they approved of his work. His disapproval rate is now 52 per cent, slightly lower than the 55 per cent in February, but this change is within the bounds of error. He excelled among men and women and showed improvement among independents and a slight improvement among Democrats – but failed among Republicans.
Still, there is a significant difference in the passions that people bring to their assessments of the president. Overall, 42 percent say they strongly disapprove of his work, while 21 percent say they strongly approve.
Biden received higher marks for his management of the war in Ukraine than two months ago, from 33 per cent approval in February to 42 per cent in the latest poll. But 47 percent disapprove, identical to February. The improvement is primarily due to a decline in the percentage of people who did not have an opinion two months ago.
An even bigger change is in the assessments of his response to the coronavirus pandemic. Currently, 51 percent approve of his performance in this area, compared to 44 percent in February. Overall, there is a change of 14 points in two months, bringing Biden from negative to positive territory for the coronavirus, and the level of approval is already similar to what it was last September.
However, there is no real change in the economy, as 38 percent say they approve of Biden’s behavior, compared to 37 percent two months ago. His assessments of job creation are better, but overall they are still negative, with 41 per cent approving and 46 per cent disapproving.
Biden’s worst assessments come from the dominance of inflation, with 68 percent saying they disapprove, compared to 28 percent who give him a positive rating. The president is particularly weak on this issue among independents who could hold the key to the outcome of much-contested race in the House of Representatives and Senate in November. Just over 1 in 5 independents, 22 percent, say they approve of Biden’s handling of rising prices.
Each political party enjoys an advantage in the way the public sees their ability to deal with a variety of issues and problems, but Republicans hold an advantage on some of the issues that lead elections.
As for the economy, 50 percent of Americans say they believe the Republican Party will do a better job, compared to 36 percent who say they believe more in the Democratic Party. When it comes to inflation, 50 percent say they trust the Republican Party more compared to 31 percent who say that to Democrats. Republicans have a 12-point lead (47% to 35%) on the issue of crime, which many Republican candidates emphasize in their campaigns.
In terms of immigration, the public is highly divided, with 43 percent saying they believe in Republicans and 40 percent saying they believe in Democrats. Republicans and Democrats are deeply polarized on the issue, while independents are evenly divided, with 39 percent saying they trust Democrats and 39 percent on the Republican Party.
Education issues have come to the fore in the political debate over the past year and played a role in the victory of Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin (right) last November. Democrats have been defended on various aspects of education, from teaching the history of racism to the role of parents in school curricula to school closures and mandates for pandemic masks.
Democrats have long taken the lead on education, but this has eroded in post-ABC polls since last November’s election and in February, with Democrats only three points ahead in both cases. The new poll found that Democrats have an eight-point advantage (47 percent versus 39 percent). Although an improvement, the gap is still significantly smaller than the Democrats’ average lead in 1990 polls.
Democrats have the biggest advantages in terms of equal treatment of racial and ethnic groups (52 percent to 31 percent of Republicans) and equal treatment of groups, regardless of their sexual orientation or gender identity (55 percent to 26 percent).
The latter have become politically exciting points, with Republican governors and Republican-led legislatures seeking to limit gender debate to students and take action to ban transgender students from participating in school sports.
As the Supreme Court approaches the decision on the Mississippi Restrictive Abortion Act, Americans say they trust Democrats more than Republicans to tackle the problem, from 47% to 37%.
Democrats regained a slight advantage in party identification after losing ground last year. The current poll finds that 48 percent identify themselves as Democrats or addicted to Democrats, which is identical to last April, but rose from a low of 43 percent in February. Meanwhile, 43 percent identify as Republicans or Republicans, a little less than 46 percent in February, but still more than 40 percent a year ago.
The Post-ABC poll was conducted on April 24-28 among a random sample of 1,004 adults reached by mobile and landline phones. The permissible error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for the overall results and among the sample of 907 registered voters.
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