OTTAWA –
When three Conservative leadership hopefuls met last week for a debate, the same word kept repeating itself.
Unity. Or more precisely, the need for it.
In a contest largely seen as a battle for the party’s soul that has exposed decades-old fissures between the groups that make up its very coalition, what might it take to achieve unity once the results are revealed on September 10th?
While that question remains, many in the party and outside are preparing for a scenario in which Pierre Poillievre wins.
Much of that thinking is based on the longtime lawmaker’s popularity among existing grassroots, combined with his ability to draw large crowds and sell what his campaign claims are more than 300,000 memberships.
But after victory comes the challenge of leading.
“Somebody needs to think a little bit about the morning after,” said Gary Keller, former chief of staff to Rona Ambrose, who was interim party leader after she lost government in 2015.
Of the remaining 118 members of the faction, as many as 62 supported Poilievre. This compares to the party’s leadership race in 2020, when the faction was more evenly split between Peter McKay and eventual winner Erin O’Toole.
O’Toole’s inability to manage the faction after losing the 2021 election to the Liberals ultimately led to his downfall. He was forced out by a vote of his MPs under the provisions of the Reform Act, measures which will remain in place for the next leader.
Poilievre said his campaign message of “freedom” served as a great unifier among conservatives. However, Keller said if some in the group take that to mean they’ll be able to say whatever they want on social media, they shouldn’t.
“I think people will be put off by that idea alone.”
Poilievre and his supporters during the race were accused of sowing division in the party by inciting personal attacks on rivals, namely former Quebec premier Jean Charest.
Most recently, MPs supporting Poilievre — along with Scott Aitchison, a rural Ontario representative and his leadership colleague — questioned whether Charest, who has spent the past 20 years out of federal politics, plans to stay with the party after the race is over.
Longtime B.C. MP Ed Fast, Charest’s campaign co-chair, tweeted “the purity tests must stop” and warned party members that when the Conservatives are divided, the Liberals win.
Fast himself resigned from his role as financial critic after criticizing Poilievre’s promise to fire the governor of the Bank of Canada, which ruffled some feathers in the faction.
“It is a sad situation that Jean Charest, a patriot and defender of Canadian unity, continues to have his loyalty questioned by party members who want to foment division,” said Michelle Coates Matter, a spokeswoman for his campaign.
“What exactly is the end game here? Losing the next federal election by alienating Conservative members who support Charest? It seems a poor strategy for a party that wants to expand its base and win federal elections.”
While Poilievre enjoys a majority of the party’s caucus support, most of Quebec’s 10 MPs support Charest, leaving open the question of what happens next if he fails.
Asked recently about the possibility, MP Alain Reyes, who organized Charest’s campaign, expressed confidence in the former Quebec premier’s chances, saying the party does not need “American-style divisive politics.”
“I have every confidence that our members will make the right choice,” he said in a statement.
The Center Ice Conservatives, a centre-right advocacy group formed during the leadership race, said the party has room to grow if it leaves the fringes and concentrates on issues that matter to the mainstream.
Filmmaker Michael Stewart says both Charest and Poilliever have policies that speak to centrists, and what they’re hearing from their group’s supporters is a desire for more focus on “dinner table issues” like economic growth and jobs .
“There’s a lot of distraction with hype around the vaccines and the convoy and things like that.”
Not only did Poilievre support the “Freedom Convoy,” he used his message of “freedom” to campaign on the anger and frustration people feel over government-imposed COVID-19 rules, such as vaccine and mask mandates.
How it will fare with social conservatives also remains an open question.
Poilievre has pledged that no government he leads will introduce or pass legislation restricting access to abortion.
Jack Fonseca, director of political operations for the anti-abortion group Campaign Life Coalition, said many of those who strongly oppose vaccine mandates also share values with social conservatives.
“They are very much about freedom, about family and yes, even about life and faith,” he said.
The Social Conservatives have traditionally been a well-mobilized part of the party’s base during leadership contests and helped deliver victories for O’Toole and former leader Andrew Scheer, who is now helping Poillievre in the race.
While Fonseca and other anti-abortion groups are encouraging members to choose socially conservative candidate Leslyn Lewis as their first choice, he said the “liberty conservatives” recruited by Poilievre will expect results.
That includes giving Lewis the role of critic, he said.
“He will be forced to face that reality and deliver on political commitments to the libertarian and social conservatives who are his base.”
“If it doesn’t, the danger is you become a flip-flop like Erin O’Toole,” he said, referring to the concessions the former leader made on promises after winning the leadership.
The purity tests must stop. Trudeau wins when @CPC_HQ is divided. @jeancharest_ has always shown up for the Conservatives and Canadians. He was clear: He would work with all Conservatives during and after this leadership race to defeat Trudeau.
— Ed Fast (@HonEdFast) August 5, 2022
This report by The Canadian Press was first published on August 7, 2022.
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