Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Finland and Sweden have sought NATO protection and are considering a paradigm shift in their respective security policies: abdication from neutrality and military independence.
In January, Social Democratic Prime Minister Sanna Marin said in Helsinki that Finland could not be expected to seek NATO membership in the current legislative term. However, Russia’s invasion revealed the shortcomings of not being a member.
Although NATO has provided some assistance to Kyiv, it remains reluctant to intervene directly or collectively under Article 5. Finland, like Ukraine, is a direct neighbor of Russia, sharing a 1,300 km (600 miles) border.
“It is not surprising that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a key factor in bringing Sweden and Finland closer to applying for full NATO membership.
Russia’s invasion has dramatically changed the political discourse in Sweden and Finland, as well as public opinion, “Alistair Shepard, a senior lecturer in European security at Aberystwyth University, told Al Jazeera.
There are indications that both Finland and Sweden are moving towards a real historical change of course in their respective security policies. During the Cold War, Sweden and Finland were essentially considered neutral countries, albeit for different reasons.
“Sweden’s neutrality was a much larger part of their national identity, while Finland’s neutrality was more pragmatic and effectively imposed on them by the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance signed between Finland and the USSR in 1948,” Shepard said. .
“Very significant contribution”
Since the end of the Cold War, they have both developed closer ties with NATO, especially since joining the Partnership for Peace (PfP) in 1994 and the European Union in 1995.
“The Partnership for Peace is designed to offer non-NATO countries a way to develop their individual relations with NATO at a pace and to the extent that they choose,” Shepard said.
Despite joining the EU and, more importantly, defense and military policy, the two countries continued to position themselves as non-militarily committed. In practice, this meant that until they were no longer politically neutral, they formally remained outside all military alliances.
The latter seems about to change.
Finland is reportedly willing to decide on NATO membership within weeks. Sweden, meanwhile, is facing elections in the middle of the year and is a little more cautious than Finland about its future.
The government will want to avoid impulsive changes in security policy that would throw decades of dogma overboard and alienate its core electorate. However, since Russia’s invasion, public opinion has changed significantly, making Sweden’s membership, as well as Finland’s, NATO membership more likely than ever.
“The survey in Finland found that 53 percent support NATO membership and 41 percent in Sweden. Most recently, this has risen further by more than 50 percent now in favor of Sweden [rising to 62 percent if Finland joins]. In Finland, 68 percent are in favor of joining NATO [rising to 77 per cent if the government recommends it]”Shepard said.
Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Anderson said after a meeting with her Finnish counterpart that the new security situation would be addressed comprehensively and quickly.
In any case, Sweden and Finland are already firmly integrated into NATO structures. Their armies have been cooperating with NATO troops for many years. Finnish and Swedish troops have participated in the NATO-led operation in Afghanistan, and the two have been working closely with the United States on equipment and training since 2015.
“Both countries are what NATO calls ’empowered partners.’ “These are partners who have made significant contributions to NATO’s operations and objectives,” Shepard said.
“Russia will not be happy”
In essence, their membership will further strengthen NATO’s presence and security in the Baltic region. Both Sweden and Finland are bringing advanced and well-trained troops to NATO.
“This can create some long-term challenges, because having 32 members can slow down or hinder consensus decision-making. It also shows how far Russia has isolated itself from the rest of the European community, “Alexander Lanoshka, an assistant professor of international relations at the University of Waterloo, told Al Jazeera.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has hinted that all gates are wide open, but NATO has not yet considered formal accession. This is only possible after submitting an application.
The schedule depends in particular on two factors. On the one hand, the respective governments in Stockholm and Helsinki must ratify the plan.
“All national parliaments will have to ratify their application to join. “It seems that the two governments prefer to move fast rather than slow, but these legislative restrictions could stop,” Lanoshka said.
The second obstacle is NATO membership. However, major NATO countries have already indicated that they would welcome the accession of Finland and Sweden.
Support comes from the United States, Germany, France, the United Kingdom and Poland. None of the other countries has yet opposed the idea, which is crucial, as all 30 members must agree on the candidacy.
“In the context of the Russia-Ukraine war, it is likely to be approved quickly and membership will be accelerated to show the unity and strength of the alliance in the face of Russian aggression,” said Catherine. Wright, a senior professor of international politics at Newcastle University, told Al Jazeera.
“If applications are made, I expect membership to be granted this year.”
However, the inclusion of the two Scandinavian countries in the alliance is not considered without concern.
Russia will not be happy, which makes Secretary General Stoltenberg emphasize at every opportunity that it is not NATO that is expanding, but that countries have the opportunity to join the alliance.
“Significantly escalates the war”
Moscow has said that if Finland and Sweden join NATO, Russia will have to strengthen its defense in the region, including by repositioning nuclear weapons.
The Kremlin has been threatening “consequences” for years if Finland and Sweden join NATO. Presidential spokesman Vladimir Putin recently said that Russia “will have to adjust” the balance of the border.
“Russia is trying to influence the decision of Sweden and Finland, for example, by claiming that it will end the Baltic Sea without nuclear energy,” Wright said.
“Still, as the Lithuanian president pointed out, Russia has long had nuclear weapons storage points in Kaliningrad. If nothing else, such a position is likely to strengthen the argument for NATO membership. “
Former Russian President and current Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said in a telegram that the status of a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the Baltic and Baltic Seas should no longer be discussed, alluding to the Kaliningrad exclave between Poland and Lithuania. .
Finland and Sweden’s NATO membership will remove the neutrality and non-alignment of two European countries by moving towards a militarized understanding of security as a key approach for the West.
However, Putin views Finland and Sweden differently from Ukraine because of their different histories.
Ukraine is seen as part of Putin’s imaginary “Russian world.” Therefore, Sweden and Finland are less comparable to Ukraine outside of their proximity to Russia.
“Any Russian invasion of Finland or Sweden, even before NATO membership, is unlikely, given that it would escalate the war significantly,” Wright said.
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