We have two Monday Night Football games coming up in Week 2, with Tennessee heading to Buffalo to take on the Bills. Our NFL betting picks predict a rough day for Ryan Tannehill, who has to contend against this airtight Bills defense.
Welcome to our free betting picks and NFL predictions for the Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills, the first of two Monday Night Football games tonight.
The Bills proved they deserve to be atop the Super Bowl odds board by making a huge statement at the start of the 2022 season last Thursday.
Buffalo defeated the defending champion LA Rams on the road in Week 1 and now sets their sights on last year’s top seed in the AFC – the Titans – in Week 2.
The Bills had a bit of a bye to prepare for the home opener, which is one of the reasons this line is trending toward the home team. Tennessee’s Week 1 effort against the NY Giants didn’t help the visitor, as the Titans squandered a 13-0 lead in the second half and lost 21-20 as a 5.5-point home chalk.
In addition to analyzing the Over/Under totals, our best bet is a quarterback-focused prop that might struggle to get things going tonight.
Titans vs Bills best odds
Titans vs. Bills picks and predictions
The last time these franchises faced off, the Titans won a shootout 34-31 at home last October. And even though Tennessee outplayed the mighty Bills in that game, quarterback Ryan Tannehill didn’t perform great.
Tannehill finished just 18-for-29 for 216 yards, no touchdowns and one interception (he ran for a TD). It was Tennessee’s rushing attack that anchored that victory, with RB Derrick Henry rumbling for 143 yards and three scores — one of which was a 76-yard TD run.
Looking at this rematch in 2022, not only is Tennessee on the road in Week 2, but Tannehill’s receiving corps isn’t what it was the last time these foes butted heads. AJ Brown and Julio Jones are gone, with that pair combining for 150 yards on 10 receptions against the Bills.
Tannehill threw for 266 yards in the Week 1 loss at New York, connecting on 20 of 33 attempts for two touchdowns against the Giants’ aggressive defense, bringing plenty of blitzing under new defensive coordinator Wink Martindale. The G-Men blitzed on nearly 49 percent of their throws — third-highest in Week 1 — and Titans QBs posted 7.3 yards per attempt and completed 60 percent of their throws for 109 yards in those situations.
Tannehill is one of the best QBs in the league when facing extra rushers, but he struggles when opponents are only able to get pressure with the front four. Last season, his yards per attempt dropped to 5.6 under pressure versus 7.8 on the blitz — completing just 53.7 percent of his throws — according to PFF. The Bills could use just that on Monday night.
Buffalo collected seven sacks and seven QB knockdowns in the win over the Rams, posting a 30.6% pass rush rate without needing any extra passes. Defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier managed just one 49 sacks against Los Angeles, and the Bills finished 10th in passing percentage on ESPN. Buffalo’s EPA allowed for returns was the second-lowest in the nation (-0.308) against a much larger air attack.
Tennessee’s offensive line was a major concern entering the season, coming off a 2021 campaign in which the pass defense finished 26th in adjusted sack percentage at Football Outsiders. And while that group held up better than expected against the Giants in Week 1, the Bills are a big step up in the defensive competition and I’m betting on a weaker day than Tannehill in terms of passing.
In addition to the Bills’ pressure and versatile defenders capable of clogging passing lanes and stifling YAC, Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel wasn’t thrilled with the play called by offensive coordinator Todd Downing in Week 1.
Downing neglected his star rusher Henry on a number of key possessions in the second half and gave the RB just 21 carries, a far cry from his workload last year before suffering a midseason leg injury and returning for the playoffs.
With Tannehill feeling the heat from Buffalo’s defense, expect that playbook to be skewed after surrendering just 43% of the snaps in Week 1 — a notable drop from a playbook that ran 48.78% of the time in 2021.
My Best Bet: Ryan Tannehill Under 216.5 yards
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Titans vs Bills betting preview
Go to:•Spread Analysis •Over/Under Analysis •Match Info •Injuries •Time •Trend to Know
Distribution analysis
The prediction for this monster AFC game was Buffalo -7.5 in the summer. After the Week 1 results, the books reopened Buffalo to -9 and that quickly went to -10.5 in some sportsbooks.
Tonight’s Bills vs. Rams performance came amid a summer of love for the Bills Mafia, which has generated plenty of action in all of its futures markets. Since then, the Titans buyback has reduced that spread to -9.5 on Buffalo, with most shops selling -10.
Covers Consensus shows 61% of home picks, while sportsbooks like WynnBet account for 60% of Bills tickets, but the big bets have the Titans as underdogs and that has more than 79% of Tennessee’s control.
Covers NFL betting analysis
Over/Under analysis
That over/under total was at 51 points on the offseason prediction lines and reopened at 50 points last Sunday night.
Early action went into the Under and pushed that number to 48 points on multiple carriers, with Buffalo making light work of the Rams’ offense in Week 1 and the Titans’ once-powerful offense being stymied by the Giants’ defense last Sunday.
Covers Consensus shows 61% of Over picks, while WynnBet’s books account for 55% of Over bets, but a whopping 97% of early money jumps to Under, forcing the books to lower that total.
Titans vs Bills game info
• Location: Highman Stadium, Orchard Park, NY • Date: Monday, September 19, 2022 • Kickoff: 7:15 pm ET • Television: ESPN
Titans vs Bills key injuries
Titans vs. Bills time
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Titans vs Bills betting trends you need to know
The Bills are 12-4 SU and 10-5-1 ATS in the first three games of the season over the last five years (since Sean McDermott took over as head coach). Find more NFL betting trends for Titans vs. Bills.
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