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BELFAST – Sinn Fein is expected to become the first nationalist party to dominate Northern Ireland on Friday, while Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party lost hundreds of seats in local elections, seen in part as a referendum on his leadership.
The final number may not be known until Saturday or later, but Sinn Fein was on track to win the largest number of seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly – and with it the power to nominate party leader Michelle O’Neill as prime minister. in a regional government with separation of powers.
The idea that Sinn Fein – once the political wing of the Irish Republican Army – could triumph in this election would have been unthinkable a generation ago. But the party is taking advantage of demographic change and expanding its appeal by focusing on the bread and butter problems, while downplaying its long-term drive to reunite Ireland.
Katie Hayward, a political sociologist at Queen’s University in Belfast, said that if the Northern Ireland legislature was “dominated by a nationalist party that wants to see the end of Northern Ireland in practice, it would really be symbolically significant”.
Sinn Féin can see a remarkable election victory in Northern Ireland
Sinn Fein’s victory will have no immediate consequences for unification. Any changes to the status of Northern Ireland will require referendums on both sides of the border, and public support for a single island is not yet available.
But Sinn Fein hopes he can build support over time. Jonathan Tonge, a political expert at the University of Liverpool, said the election results certainly increased the chances.
“There will soon be no border study on Irish unity, but there will be one day,” he said.
The more immediate question is whether the new CEO will meet. The Democratic Unionist Party – the main party, animated by the idea that Northern Ireland should remain part of the United Kingdom – is boycotting, citing its suffering from the post-Brexit trade agreement between Johnson and the European Union.
The results of the mayoral and mayoral elections in England, Scotland and Wales were also reported on Friday. General elections are not until 2024, and turnout in local elections is often low. But these interim mandates are often an indicator of how the main political parties are doing. And that was the first big test for Johnson’s Conservatives since the cost of living crisis and the scandal known as the Partygate.
The government is facing three ongoing investigations into alcohol gatherings that violated pandemic blocking rules, while the prime minister urged citizens to stay home and not mix with people from multiple households. Johnson is the first incumbent prime minister found to have broken the law.
Analysts said Johnson was seriously injured but not fatally injured in the local elections.
“This is not a knockout,” said Will Jennings, a political expert at the University of Southampton. “It wasn’t great for the Conservatives, but it’s still not bad enough to force them to act, so Boris is living to fight another day.”
There were some calls at local and regional level for Johnson to step down, but there did not appear to be a cascade of letters from Conservative MPs calling for a no-confidence vote.
However, Jennings said the Conservatives could not simply dismiss this as a medium-term blues and hope things would improve. “Governments are losing and can continue to make money, but the government is facing a very grim economic situation,” he said. “Voters will feel significant economic pain next year or two.
As of Friday night, the Conservatives had lost more than 300 seats in England and suffered significant losses in Scotland. Some of these losses have been in places where they have been dominant for years.
In London, the Labor Party won two leading councils: the Wandsworth district, a Conservative stronghold that was a favorite of former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, and the Westminster district, which had voted conservative since its inception in 1964 (Westminster is where Johnson cast on Thursday with his dog Dilin, together for a trip.)
Gavin Barwell, the former chief of staff to Johnson’s conservative predecessor, Theresa May, called the results in London “catastrophic” and said they should be a “wake-up call for the Conservative Party”.
While the ruling Tories lost positions, there was no single beneficiary. The shoulders were divided between the Labor Party, the main opposition party, as well as the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party.
The Conservatives, who do better in post-industrial cities in the north of England and Labor in big cities, remain. And Labor has failed to make significant breakthroughs in the “red wall” of the North of England, making it more competitive in the next general election. These are areas where in 2019 Johnson’s Conservatives won huge support from former Labor voters who were in favor of Brexit.
“We had a hard night in some parts of the country,” Johnson told television. “But on the other hand, in other parts of the country, you still see the Conservatives moving forward and making quite remarkable profits in places that haven’t voted for Conservatives in a long time, if at all.
Keir Starmer, the leader of the Labor Party, hailed the early results as “a big turning point for us”. Later on Friday, British police said they would investigate Starmer for a potential breach of covid blocking rules. He came under pressure after footage of him drinking beer indoors with colleagues last April. He denies any rules have been violated.
Adam reported from London.
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