Sinn Fein hailed his first victory in the Northern Ireland Assembly elections as a turning point for the British-controlled region and called for a debate on a united Ireland.
Party President Mary Lou MacDonald sent a simple message to the unionists on Saturday, telling them: “Do not be afraid, the future is bright for all of us.
The party deliberately downplayed its long-term goal of a reunited Ireland, but unionists would have been frightened by previous statements that they would like to see a border study on the reunification of Ireland within five to 10 years.
Can Sinn Fein call the border poll the largest party in Northern Ireland?
Absolutely not. This power belongs only to the Secretary of Northern Ireland. Brandon Lewis on Sunday flatly rejected such a poll, and his successors are unlikely to call a referendum with such profound consequences.
As Sinn Féin’s deputy leader, Michelle O’Neill, pointed out in the pre-election debate on the BBC’s leadership, the Brexit vote showed the dangers of referendums convened without adequate preparation.
The latest such exercise in Ireland has legalized abortion and is considered a model for controversial research. It took years of preparation, including gatherings of citizens and a proposal for legislation agreed in advance by parliament, so that voters know the exact consequences of their vote.
How can a border study be reached?
The Good Friday agreement allows for a consultation at some point, but avoids defining circumstances that are very different from the fact that the British government is deciding not to party in Northern Ireland. It reads: “If at any time it seems likely that a majority of the electorate would express a wish for Northern Ireland to cease to be part of the United Kingdom and to become part of a united Ireland, the Secretary of State will issue an Order to the Council border consultation ”.
results
Is the election result enough to qualify as a majority for a poll?
The agreement does not define what it means to have a majority, but experts say a number of indicators will have to be used, not just an election result.
A group of academics, led by Alan Renwick, deputy director of the constitutional unit at University College London, spent two years studying a potential border study. Their 259-page report asks all the key questions about how it can arise and how it will be designed.
They conclude that there will need to be majority support for a united Ireland, probably between 51% and 55%, for some time before the Secretary of State has to fulfill his “mandatory obligation”.
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Alan Weissol, also from the UCL’s constitutional body, said a united Ireland was a distant prospect in 1998 and the wording of the agreement was overshadowed by “serious gaps and ambiguities in the framework” for a poll.
UCL offers six sources of evidence for the majority: election results, opinion polls, qualitative polls, the Stormont vote, election-winning seats, and demographics.
Why is demographic data important?
It is widely accepted, rightly or wrongly, that those with a Catholic heritage will support a united Ireland, while those with a Protestant conviction will fight for the status quo.
The latest census results this summer could show that Catholics are outnumbering Protestants for the first time.
However, Peter Shirlow, director of the Institute for Irish Studies at the University of Liverpool, believes a new cohort could emerge once the Northern Ireland peace deal matures. He called them “secular unionists” of the two faiths who wanted Northern Ireland to remain part of the United Kingdom.
If there was a united Ireland, what would it look like?
Debates south of the border have suggested that parliament will sit in Dublin if a united Ireland is ever reached, but UCL has found that this will be fraught with problems.
His report outlines four constitutional options:
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Decentrated institutions preserved in Northern Ireland, but with sovereignty transferred from London to Dublin.
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One central legislature is likely to be in Dublin, but unionists are likely to see this as a hostile takeover. “This model has historically been preferred by many Irish Republicans, constitutional or otherwise. But some would see this approach [as came across in our evidence sessions] contrary to the consensus-building aspect of the 1998 agreement, “UCL said.
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Federal state. This model “will avoid some of the management complications of unilateral transfer of functions. But a federation of two would be unbalanced, “said UCL, which looks at institutions based around urban regions or population centers.
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Confederation of two countries – Northern Ireland, independent of the United Kingdom and Ireland. UCL found that this “would be less in line with the unity requirement laid down in the 1998 agreement”. The post-Brexit status of Northern Ireland inside or outside the EU may also require a referendum.
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