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Emmanuel Macron is heading to Germany with the wind – and many ambitions – in his sails.
After winning a second term as French president, Macron can claim to be a prominent EU leader and a new impetus for his efforts to make Europe more powerful and independent.
But, as always with Europe, nothing much will change unless Paris and Berlin move in the same direction. So Macron’s first foreign visit since his re-election was, of course, a trip to Berlin for dinner with Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Monday.
The meeting with Scholz, who succeeded Angela Merkel as chancellor in December, will take place just hours after Macron presented his renewed vision for the EU at a Europe Day ceremony in Strasbourg. His speech is expected to touch on the ever-sensitive issue of changes to the treaties that underpin the European Union.
The two leaders meet as Europe faces a daunting geopolitical landscape dominated by the Russian war in Ukraine but also shaped by increasingly assertive China and uncertainty about the future political direction of the United States.
“At this very moment, when we are facing the greatest foreign policy challenge since 1945, the Franco-German engine is of incredible importance,” said Nicole Westig, chairman of the Franco-German parliamentary group in the Bundestag.
“If Europe wants to defend its values and democracy, France and Germany must work closely together,” said Westig, a Liberal Free Democrat lawmaker, one of three parties in Scholz’s ruling coalition.
Based on interviews with officials, legislators and analysts in France and Germany, POLITICO has put together items likely to be on Macron’s to-do list in Berlin – and looked at the challenges it faces to meet them.
1. Learn to love Olaf
Macron and Scholz are not strangers to each other, but they are not best friends. Macron has known Scholz, a Social Democrat, since he was Germany’s finance minister, working closely with Paris on a historically EU-funded coronavirus recovery fund. But the French leader has not yet built the same close working relationship he developed with Merkel.
“Both leaders already have a lot of experience in their work and know each other,” said Stefan Seidendorf, deputy director of the Franco-German Institute, a non-profit research organization.
“There is no Franco-German moment of fear when a new president or chancellor comes, and you must first come to terms with the reality that neither France nor Germany can lead Europe alone,” he added.
Macron has not yet built the same close working relationship with Olaf Scholz as he did with Angela Merkel | Photo of the pool by Andreas Gora / Getty Images
But a French official admitted that the couple “still need to meet”. Speaking on condition of anonymity, the employee used the word “s’apprivoiser” – which often refers to the domestication of animals – to describe what should happen next, showing that Paris sees room for improvement in personal relationships.
An official from Macron’s political party – recently renamed Renaissance – said the relationship needed to be “tested over time” and noted that “Macron has already gained seniority and experience” by attending numerous European Council meetings where Scholz is still is a novice.
2. Organize a (polite) offensive in defense
Germany’s recent decision to buy US F-35 fighter jets to replace its aging Tornado has angered some French officials, as Paris is pushing for Europe to become more autonomous in defense (benefiting from France’s sizeable defense industry).
“Sometimes we have the feeling that Germany is closer to NATO and more American than European,” complains a former adviser to the French government, who regrets that Berlin did not turn to the French two-jet fighter Rafale.
German officials say the decision to buy the F-35 reflects the need to replace the fleet with bombers that could carry US nuclear bombs in the event of a direct conflict with Russia under a long-standing agreement with Washington. The United States would allow the use of French aircraft for this purpose only if Paris revealed important technical details about its Washington fighter jets – something that is considered very unlikely, say German authorities.
A key question is whether Paris and Berlin can find a way to step up cooperation on their joint fighter project, the Future Combat Air System (FCAS), which has literally yet to come out of the ground. Scholz said earlier this year that he remained committed to the FCAS despite the decision to buy the F-35, but the progress of the project would take much more than words.
3. Make the Germans relax with the money
Macron – along with Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and a number of other EU leaders – is pushing for a easing of the EU’s fiscal rules, the Stability and Growth Pact, to allow exceptions for more defense spending and climate action. Paris has also proposed the idea of creating a new financial asset, similar to the Coronavirus Recovery Fund, to finance such investments and mitigate the impact of rising energy prices.
Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi also insists on easing EU fiscal rules Filippo Monteforte / AFP via Getty Images
However, the Scholz government has so far rejected these demands, arguing that the EU must first make full use of the existing reconstruction fund.
Seidendorff of the Franco-German Institute said Paris and Berlin had worked well together to create the fund, but now risked reaching an unambitious compromise on future finances that could work for both in the short term but not develop further. EU.
4. Connect with energy and climate
Both leaders are committed to the dual goals of radically reducing carbon emissions and diverting Europe from Russian energy. But Macron will want to avoid the highness shown by some French officials when they claim that their strategy for adhering to nuclear energy has already been doubly confirmed, as it serves them well for both purposes. Meanwhile, Germany is pushing for a decision a decade ago to move away from nuclear power, which has increased its dependence on Russian gas.
As for the climate, maybe Scholz is taking the initiative, not Macron. Berlin wants France to improve the legislation that makes up the EU’s 55-year climate package before Paris ends its presidency of the EU Council at the end of June. The German government – which includes the Greens – fears that the Czech Republic, the next country in the presidency, may lack the political strength and determination to push the package forward.
French authorities insist Berlin can count on Paris. “The high priority at the end of the French presidency is Fit For 55 in its entirety, and we intend to speed up the work,” said one. “We have no intention of applying the brakes.”
5. Talk about the neighbors
The unpleasant question of whether and when to welcome new EU members has been on the agenda, thanks to Ukraine’s request to join the bloc quickly.
Although both Paris and Berlin are cautious about Ukraine’s request for official candidate status for the EU summit in June, they have long had very different views on the prospect of other countries joining the club. Berlin insisted on opening the door to the countries of the Western Balkans, while Paris was much calmer about the idea.
The big question for Berlin is whether Macron is ready to rethink his views and offer something new, as some believe he will.
“It has become clear to the French side that the lack of a neighborhood policy and EU enlargement has already become intolerable in the face of the crisis in Ukraine,” Seidendorf said. “Some form of accession prospect must be created to avoid no man’s land between Russia and the EU.
A French official said the issue of EU enlargement deserved “in-depth consideration”, but also stressed the position France has held for years – that any EU enlargement must go hand in hand with a broader reform of the bloc. This may include removing the unanimity requirement for voting in certain areas such as foreign policy. “The day we are 35 [EU member countries]we need to come up with something new, a new decision-making mechanism, “he said.
Scholz recently made a similar remark, telling reporters that the EU “needs to make progress on institutional reforms to make us fit for enlargement.”
6. Let’s at least tweak the contracts!
Expect Macron to push for a debate on changing EU treaties in both Strasbourg and Berlin.
The conference on the future of Europe, Macron’s idea, will conclude on Monday with the final presentation of hundreds of proposals made by EU citizens to reform the way Europe works, including by changing treaties. The proposals prompted MEPs to adopt a resolution last week calling for a convention to be convened by stepping up the treaty revision procedure.
On Monday, Macron will insist that changing the treaty is “neither a totem nor a taboo” and will raise the issue with Scholz in Berlin, according to an Elise official. On the one hand, the official noted, the EU has already managed to undertake major reforms, preferred by Macron, without changing the treaties. However, other changes supported by Macron will require a change in the treaty, such as giving the European Parliament the right to initiate legislation and revising the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights to include abortion rights, the Elysee Palace official said.
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