It may take five years. Or they may be 10. They may even be 15. But with Sinn Fein’s victory in the Northern Ireland regional election, the Nationalist Party is now clearly in the lead, and a united Ireland is a realistic opportunity for the first time in more than a century.
If the party has its way, the division will end – and with it the United Kingdom.
No matter where you are on this issue, one point is certainly clear. A united Ireland would be an economic catastrophe, especially for the republic.
The South is much more successful than the North, but it is not big enough to easily absorb the huge subsidies needed by the six counties to stay afloat. Nor can he expect much help from the European Union. In fact, this would be similar to merging West Germany with East Germany – but far, much worse in terms of the price to be paid. Once this starts to sink, the chances of it ever happening will decrease.
Ever since Good Friday brought some peace to the region, support for Sinn Fein has grown steadily.
However, there was no doubt that it was a surprise for most of the rest of the world to see an organization that many still associate with violence and terror that actually won elections.
Led by Michelle O’Neill – a relatively fresh, moderate leader compared to some of her more sinister predecessors – the party won 27 seats in the Assembly, pushing the Democratic Unionists into second place with 25.
It is true that its success is largely due to the division of the dispute on the unionist side. However, as leader of the largest party, O’Neill will have the right to become prime minister.
She will be the first nationalist to hold this position, and this will mark a major change in the policy of Northern Ireland.
As Nicola Sturgeon has shown in Scotland, once nationalist politicians come to power, they can build and build support.
Aided by the messy and inoperable Northern Ireland Protocol, which leaves Northern Ireland half in and half out of the EU, support for reunification with the South may grow.
What are the chances of Sinn Fein winning a referendum? It can be only 20 or 30 pcs. But this is more likely than at any other time in several generations.
But here’s the problem. The North is not exactly a huge reward, at least economically.
The numbers are sobering. It manages the highest budget deficit of any of the four nations that make up the United Kingdom.
According to an analysis by the Institute for Governance based on fiscal 2019/20, it has a deficit of 19 percent of GDP – slightly more than Wales and much higher than Scotland. Following the 2008/2009 financial crisis, this hit a staggering 30% of GDP.
The human deficit is more than £ 5,000, again the highest of any of the four nations. Public spending per capita is higher than elsewhere in the UK and tax revenues are lower.
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