The government of Prime Minister Doug Ford has been quietly reviewing its plan to meet Ontario’s 2030 carbon reduction targets.
The new forecast of greenhouse gas emissions in the province, published on a government website, shows some significant deviations from the reductions provided for in the “Made in Ontario Environmental Protection Plan” in 2018.
The new plan does not include any reductions from higher utilization of electric vehicles, which represent nearly 15% of the projected CO2 emission reductions in the government’s 2018 plan.
Also missing from the new forecast: any mention of the Ontario Carbon Trust, which the government previously advertised as a significant source of emissions reductions. It was announced in 2018 as a $ 400 million fund to help the private sector develop clean technologies, but never materialized.
The forecast for the protection of natural gas in the plan for 2018 to reduce CO2 emissions by 2.3 megatons (MT) has been reduced to almost nothing in the new plan: 0.03 MT
Although Ford’s government has unveiled its 2018 environmental plan, it has not released a news release on its new emissions forecast. CBC News asked Environment Minister David Piccini for an interview in the days before the long Easter weekend, but he was not available.
This is the new forecast of the Ford government on how it expects to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Ontario by 2030 (Ministry of Environment, Conservation and Parks of Ontario)
Despite revisions, the new forecast still shows that Ontario is achieving a 30% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 2005 to 2030 levels.
“The province remains steadfast in its commitment to meeting its 2030 emissions reduction target and is confident in its plan and trajectory to get there,” the new document said.
The revised forecast notes that Ontario has already achieved “greater reductions in greenhouse gas emissions than any other province or territory in Canada.”
These cuts came almost entirely through initiatives by previous liberal governments, most notably the cessation of coal-fired power in Ontario. By the time Ford’s government came to power in 2018, the province was already two-thirds of the way to achieving that 2030 target.
The government can be helped along the way by the pandemic. Ontario emissions in 2020 showed the sharpest decline year on year since the 2008-09 recession hit the manufacturing industry: 16 MT lower than in 2019, according to federal data released this week, largely because drivers travel less and travelers less.
Ontario’s new forecast predicts that it will achieve its 2030 target by reducing emissions by 12 MT from current levels.
These reductions will come mainly from three sources:
- Higher content of renewable sources in gasoline.
- Stricter emission standards for heavy industry.
- The planned diversion of the steel industry from coal-fired furnaces.
Keith Stewart, a senior energy strategist at Greenpeace Canada, says most of the planned emission reductions in the province are driven by either federal regulations or programs that Ottawa helps pay for.
“The Ford government is basically focusing on past actions taken by the Ontario governments and current actions taken by the federal government,” Stewart said in an interview.
“Ontario seems to be saying, ‘We’re going to do whatever the federal government either makes us do or pays for, and nothing more.’ And that’s not good enough in a climate crisis,” Stewart added.
Ottawa’s clean fuel mandate requires gasoline and diesel suppliers to reduce carbon intensity. Ontario achieves this largely by raising the minimum ethanol content in gasoline to 15 percent.
According to data provided by the Ministry of Environment to CBC News, the transition to “green steel”, funded in part by federal and provincial governments, is expected to reduce emissions by 5.1 MT, while the content of renewable gasoline and heavy industry standards will combine for a reduction of 5.35 MT. The ministry did not provide a breakdown between the two initiatives.
This chart shows the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions that the Ford government predicts in 2018 in its Environmental Plan. (Ontario Department of the Environment, Conservation and Parks)
There are much lower projections for reducing emissions from less food waste dumped in landfills (0.97 MT), greater use of transit (0.58 MT) and conservation of natural gas (0.03 MT) .
The government’s plan is working, Piccini spokesman Philip Robinson said in an email to CBC News.
“This has been done while ensuring that our approach is flexible to the opportunities, needs and circumstances faced by job creators, and is not detrimental to Ontario’s economic growth,” Robinson wrote.
The three-page document outlining Ontario’s new plan to reduce emissions does not mention climate change, something Stewart says.
“This plan is to meet federal requirements, not to tackle the climate crisis, because the Ford government does not recognize it as a crisis,” he said.
The Trudeau government unveiled a plan last month to reduce Canada’s emissions by 40 percent from the 2005 benchmark. However, Ontario is sticking to the 30 percent target that Canada is committed to the legally binding Paris Agreement in 2016.
Diane Sachs, deputy leader of the Ontario Green Party, says the government’s forecast is unreliable.
“It hides even more details than the baseless figures in Ford’s latest forecast,” Sachs said in a press release.
“Doug Ford is not doing anything about climate emergencies,” she added.
“Doing nothing on the greatest problem of our time is an insult to our children and future generations.”
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