Critics have already described Nicolas Sturgeon’s address to NATO audiences this week as a “delusion”. But there is another epithet worth using with this opportunistic politician, whose enthusiasm for the Western union only emerged after Vladimir Putin’s troops invaded Ukraine. And this is: duplicity. Her words were stunning in their hypocrisy, given that she wants to join the NATO club but will not pay the membership fee.
An independent, SNP-led Scotland will continue to oppose nuclear weapons, even as it shelters under the alliance’s nuclear umbrella. But it would be much worse if there was no room in “her” Scotland for the UK’s deterrents, which are currently based on Clyde. Her government will seek to expel one of NATO’s three nuclear arsenals, potentially leaving only US and French forces fully effective.
Sturgeon said the war in Ukraine had strengthened her conviction that it was “absolutely right and essential” for an independent Scotland to join NATO, saying membership would be a “cornerstone of an independent Scottish security policy”. She was helped by the fact that Sweden and Finland, which have always been admired by Scottish nationalists, also intend to join the alliance.
But neither they nor the other non-nuclear member states seem to oppose living under the protection of weapons held by the United States, the United Kingdom and France. And needless to say, none of them, as far as I know, is currently calling for the expulsion of nuclear bases.
No one will be surprised to learn what Sturgeon did not say to the US audience – nor did they try to understand. At the heart of its defense policy is the removal of the UK-based Trident submarine from the Fasslaine naval base in Clyde if Scotland secedes from the UK.
Probably under this circumstance, the UK government will try to lease some form of Faslane and surrounding facilities, such as Coulport, where the missiles are located. But even that proposal has met with strong opposition from SNP activists and Sturgeon’s coalition partners, the Scottish Greens, who remain adamantly opposed to even Scotland joining NATO.
In a recent document from the think tank, Rear Admiral John Gower, a former Assistant Chief of Defense and a leading UK military expert on nuclear policy, acknowledged that the basis of Trident’s capability to protect NATO as well as Britain , is Continuous At Sea Deterrence (CASD), where the Trident submarine is always at sea, somewhere in the world. But he added: “CASD relies almost entirely on unimpeded access to Scotland, its inland waters and territorial seas. Any change in the status quo will jeopardize … the UK’s most significant contribution to NATO’s security.
There is also no obvious alternative site for Trident boats, although they are currently going to Devonport for repairs. Rear Admiral Gower said it was impossible to overestimate the challenges – political and financial – that any Fasslane move could pose. Although he warned that Britain’s allies may not have fully understood the risks, he added ominously: this is almost certainly understood in Moscow. Many Scottish voters may see the abandonment of nuclear weapons as a “convenient, comfortable, risk-free by-product of independence”, but they need to be aware of the consequences for Scotland, the rest of the UK and NATO.
For a lifelong unilateral, Sturgeon’s speech is a remarkable read. She seems to be trying to promote the idea of being a long-time “cold warrior”, pointing out that Scotland has a “key position” at the northern end of NATO, where Russian warplanes and submarines “regularly attack”. This observer had no idea that she was so well trained in strategic matters, and it is clear that Putin’s invasion frightened her into the light of day and forced her to reevaluate her ridiculous defense policy.
Her support for joining NATO, first reluctantly approved by her party in 2014, is welcome, but only if it accepts that membership carries responsibilities. And most importantly, when Putin brandishes his nuclear sword, the UK’s main defense – its Trident submarines – must remain in Scotland.
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