Olaf Scholz is under increasing international pressure to make a major decision: whether to give the green light for German battle tanks to be sent to Ukraine.
Berlin’s Western allies are turning the screws on the German leader as Kyiv pleads for more weapons to consolidate its gains against Russia and reclaim occupied territory as the war nears its first anniversary.
Public statements by leading German ministers in recent days suggest that the government’s position is changing. But Scholz, who is the most important decision-maker, has yet to show a change of heart.
The German chancellor wields enormous influence not least because of the military and political implications of the decision by Europe’s most populous nation and largest economy to send its own tanks to Ukraine. It also has the power to approve or veto the re-export of the German-made Leopard 2 tanks, which are used by 13 armies across Europe.
Yet Scholz, known for his cautious style, has expressed hesitation for months about the tank delivery, even as the Greens and liberal partners in his triple coalition have grown bolder in their support for it.
“Germany must. . . not to interfere if other countries decide to support Ukraine, regardless of what Germany itself decides,” Green Economy Minister Robert Habeck said on Thursday.
While Scholz last year promised a “radical shift” in Germany’s defense and security policy in response to Vladimir Putin’s incursion into its neighbor, that change appears slow for Kyiv and its loudest allies in Europe, including Poland and the Baltic nations.
“There is always a similar pattern: first they say no, then they fiercely defend their decision, only to say yes in the end,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said this week. “We are still trying to understand why the German government is doing this to itself.”
Senior figures in Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) deny the chancellor is too hesitant. “I don’t see it as a concern,” Michael Roth, head of the Bundestag’s foreign affairs committee, told German radio on Friday. “He’s acting cautiously, in a way that takes into account the fact that [German] society is divided on this issue.” He said there was “no clear majority” in favor of sending tanks to Ukraine.
The German leader has repeatedly expressed concern that his country is seen as escalating the conflict and provoking Putin, who has hinted he may resort to nuclear weapons. Recent polls show that a majority of Germans are against supplying Ukraine with Leopard 2 tanks.
Scholz is not helped by the political baggage of his GSDP, which has a long history of pacifism and a track record of promoting closer ties with Russia. However, Rolf Mützenich, head of the party’s parliamentary group, said on Thursday that when it comes to sending battle tanks to Ukraine, “there are no red lines”.
The German leader’s position on sending weapons to Ukraine has changed since the start of the war. He initially refused to send heavy weapons at all, saying his country would not “go it alone.” But then Berlin began supplying armored vehicles, self-propelled howitzers and air defense systems.
Last week, he and Joe Biden, the US president, announced that they would supply infantry fighting vehicles: the US-made Bradley and the German-made Marder. The move came a day after French President Emmanuel Macron said France would provide AMX-10 armored vehicles – considered by some military analysts to be “light tanks” – to Ukrainian forces.
In an apparent bid to increase pressure on Berlin, Britain announced this week that it was working on plans to send a small number of Challenger 2 tanks to Kyiv.
Polish President Andrzej Duda also announced plans to send 14 Leopard 2 tanks to the Ukrainian army “as part of international coalition building” – a step that would only be possible with Germany’s approval. A Scholz spokesman said Thursday that Berlin had not yet received a formal request to re-export German-made tanks.
US officials remain more cautious. Although they said they were discussing the prospect of sending tanks to Ukraine, such a move does not appear imminent. Some believe that the German Leopards are a better option for Kyiv because they are lighter and easier to maintain than the American Abrams.
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Still, Scholz could only succeed in operating against tanks if he could do so in step with the Americans. “He needs the cover of a nuclear power,” said Yana Pulierin, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “A European consortium may not be enough for him.”
Scholz’s reluctance both embarrassed and angered his critics. Roderich Kiesewetter, a member of the Bundestag’s foreign affairs committee from the opposition Christian Democrats (CDU), accused the chancellor of surrounding himself with “Russian romantics” who “want to sacrifice Ukraine”. Kieseweter welcomed the statements from Warsaw and London and called on Berlin to “finally rethink its position” on the tanks, adding: “We were too cautious.”
Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, the Free Democratic Party (FDP) chairman of the Bundestag’s defense committee and a prominent Russia hawk, suggested that the SPD leadership had not understood the importance of pacifism. “If you see Russia’s aggression and you see how brutal the fighting against Ukraine is, it’s not unpacifist if you’re trying to defend yourself.”
The “terrible” destruction inflicted by German tanks on the Soviet Union – which included Ukraine – in World War II still casts a long shadow over her country, she said. But history, she argues, can be used to make a positive case for sending in tanks. “You can . . . say that German tanks, German soldiers were a nightmare for the Ukrainian people in the Second World War, and now this equipment is no longer a nightmare – it is to help Ukraine.
Additional reporting by Felicia Schwartz in Washington
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