- The conflict in Ukraine is disastrous for Russia, but Putin does not think it is going badly, says Fiona Hill.
- The Russian leader has received poor intelligence and is living in a “bubble”, according to the Russian expert.
- However, Hill stressed that Putin would not give up his goal of “dismembering” Ukraine, despite major setbacks in the war.
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The war in Ukraine has so far been disastrous for the Russian military on many levels, but Russian President Vladimir Putin “does not think anything went wrong,” according to a leading expert on Russia.
“The sad fact from our point of view is that Putin does not think that something went wrong. I know this may sound absolutely strange, because we can say that if he declares victory now, it is a very fiery victory,” Fiona said. Hill, who was Russia’s chief adviser to the Trump administration’s National Security Council, said Tuesday at an event hosted by the Chicago Board of Global Affairs.
Although the war was “devastating for Russia,” Hill said Putin’s mentality still dates back to the time he was a KGB operative, and he is always looking to adapt to the situation on the ground to achieve his goals. . The Russian leader knows that when operations do not go according to plan, then “you have to have unforeseen situations,” she said.
“As for Putin, he will find a way to achieve his goals in the war, which include the ‘dismemberment’ of Ukraine,” she added. Hill stressed that the Russian leader does not see Ukraine as a real country, but instead sees it as a territory that historically belongs to Russia.
Putin is actually seen as the bearer of the legacy of Russian tsars or emperors, Hill said, and subjugation of Ukraine is a crucial part of that in his eyes.
“This is a war for history. In principle, Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine because Ukraine did not comply with his view of Russian history,” Hill said. “He sees himself as a king, he sees himself as a reclaimer and reclaimer of Russia,” she continued.
Russia lost thousands of troops in Ukraine, as well as an astonishing number of generals, after Putin, without provocation, launched the war in late February. The Russian army failed to capture Kyiv and struggled to make progress in other areas of strategic importance during the conflict. The war has led to unprecedented sanctions and united the West in major ways, pushing historically neutral countries Sweden and Finland into the arms of NATO, a military alliance Putin has criticized for years and partly blamed for invading Ukraine.
Asked why Putin was so wrong, Hill said a number of factors. The COVID-19 pandemic has put an end to Putin’s “greater isolation than normal” in recent years, Hill said, stressing that the whole world is affected.
Putin also did not receive solid intelligence on Ukraine for “various structural reasons,” Hill said, including “a very high penalty for confusing things.” People who are dissatisfied with the Russian leader often end up in prison or die in violent and suspicious ways.
In addition, Putin believes that West is going through a “period of incredible weakness,” Hill said, which is not entirely wrong in the sense that both the United States and Europe have struggled with major political divisions in recent years. But the war had the opposite effect, and he saw the West unite to support Ukraine and oppose Russia.
Putin also “does not understand Ukraine” and believes it “belongs to Russia,” Hill said, underestimating the sense of citizenship that has emerged in the former Soviet republic over the past 30 years. The Russian leader believes that this war will be a “replay” of successful Soviet invasions of Eastern European countries during the Cold War, as well as the annexation of Crimea in 2014, because “he is in a bubble,” Hill said.
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