“What we have seen in the last few days is that they are still trying to set the conditions,” the senior defense official told reporters Monday. We call it shaping operations.
“They seem to be trying to learn from failed lessons in the north, where they did not have adequate maintenance skills in the area where they are going to operate,” the official said.
The official said the United States had seen Russia move with “heavy artillery”, “command and control equipment” and “aviation, especially rotary aviation support” as part of the 11 new battalion tactical groups that have moved east. and southern Ukraine “over the past few days.”
Russia is gathering troops and appears close to capturing the southeastern port city of Mariupol. CNN reported on Monday that the fate of Mariupol depends on an unknown number of defenders who are taking last place in an iron and steel plant.
According to Petro Andryushchenko, an adviser to the city’s mayor, heavy fighting is still raging on Monday.
Russia’s divided – and sometimes chaotic – operation in northern Ukraine is well documented, and their early military failures came as a great surprise to US and Western officials.
Since Russia launched its attack on Ukraine on February 24, it has bombed Ukrainian cities with missiles and artillery, destroying apartments, hospitals and schools, leaving dozens of civilians killed. But its ground invasion has largely stopped, and Moscow has failed to capture key cities, including Kyiv, amid fierce resistance from Ukrainians and what senior defense officials have described as tactical mistakes.
Russia is focusing on the east and south
The United States estimates that Russia has added 11 battalion tactical groups (BTGs) to its forces in the east and south since late last week, according to a senior U.S. defense official, bringing Russia’s total BTG to 76.
“They have increased their capabilities in Ukraine,” the official said.
The official said that all Russian ground forces are currently concentrated in eastern and southern Ukraine, but the United States cannot determine exactly how the new BTGs are distributed.
In preparation for a new type of battle in the open plains of southeastern Ukraine right next to Russia, the United States is giving Kyiv the kind of powerful capabilities that some Biden officials thought were too high a risk of escalation a few weeks ago.
The new $ 800 million arms package is the clearest sign so far that the war in Ukraine is changing – and with it the weapons Ukraine will need if it hopes to continue to stop the Russian army, which is regrouping and supplying. after its initial failures in the first weeks of the war.
The Biden administration said the new package includes 11 Mi-17 helicopters originally intended for Afghanistan, 18,155 mm howitzers and another 300 Switchblade drones, in addition to radar systems capable of tracking incoming fire and determining its origin. .
This package stands out from previous security aid in part because this tranche includes more complex and heavier weapons than previous shipments.
A U.S. official told CNN last week that this was deliberate, saying that because Russia, which failed to take Kyiv, has shifted its strategy to concentrating forces in eastern Ukraine, the United States is changing its strategy to what it provides. of Ukraine.
“The contours of what they need are very different,” said the US official.
Several of the weapons systems are sophisticated enough that the Pentagon has said it will have to provide training to Ukrainians outside the country, as previously provided for Switchblade drones, with a senior defense official saying howitzer training will begin “in the next few days.” . “
“We will try to get opportunities for a small number of Ukrainians to be familiar with these systems,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told reporters last week. “
CNN’s Oren Lieberman, Jeremy Herb and Caitlan Collins contributed to this report.
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