Samples of monkeypox were tested in the University of Minnesota Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory. Photo: JUDY GRIESEDIECK / Star Tribune (Getty Images)
The cases of monkeypox continue to rise worldwide, with more than 200 confirmed and suspected cases documented in more than 20 countries. Scientists are beginning to gather their first clues about these outbreaks, including how the virus may have spread further than ever before.
According to a tracker from the group Global.health, as of Tuesday afternoon, there were 174 confirmed and 93 suspicious cases from 21 countries. The United Kingdom and Spain have reported the most cases, and at least seven have been reported in the United States, including one in New York. No deaths have been reported so far; The type of monkeypox virus associated with these cases is known to have a mortality rate of about 1%.
The viral disease tends to cause large uneven rashes all over the body, along with flu-like symptoms. It may take up to three weeks after exposure for symptoms to begin and two weeks for the disease to go away. The virus is spread mainly by direct contact, although it can also spread through contaminated surfaces as well as respiratory droplets and aerosols. Infected people are not considered contagious until they begin to show symptoms.
Monkeypox, closely related to the now extinct smallpox virus, is endemic to parts of Africa and is thought to infect rodents. Since its discovery in the 1950s, it has occasionally jumped from animals to humans, causing localized outbreaks with limited transmission between humans. This makes these recent cases far different from past virus outbreaks. But we may have some early indications of what is happening.
Electron microscope image of a single monkeypox virus. Photo: Cynthia C. Goldsmith, Russell Regner / CDC via AP (AP)
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Some researchers have succeeded in genetically sequencing virus samples collected from patients. These results suggest that the strains in these cases are closely related to strains recently collected from Nigeria, where outbreaks have continued since 2018. At least for now, there seems to be no evidence that the virus has mutated in any significant way since then, which is reassuring . But further research will be needed to rule out the possibility that it has somehow become more inherently transmissible between people.
“In the past, human-to-human distribution has existed, but it has been quite limited. We still don’t know that it spreads more easily from person to person. That’s one possible explanation, but I still don’t know any evidence to support this idea, “Andrew Pavia, an infectious disease doctor at the University of Utah, told Gizmodo last week.
If the virus has not changed substantially, then these outbreaks may be the result of other factors, including how it is now being captured. Many cases have been found in young gays and bisexual men who have recently been sexually active. A World Health Organization adviser said its spread may have been boosted by two recent raves in Spain and Belgium, where casual sex was common.
However, even if this is true, it does not mean that gays or bisexual men are the only ones at risk, as the virus can be spread through direct contact between each sexual partner. It is also possible that these cases were discovered for the first time simply because these people tend to be more aware of the risk of sexually transmitted infections in general and are more likely to see a doctor regularly as a result. On Tuesday, the popular dating app Grindr sent a report of monkeypox to its users, advising them to seek medical help if they or a recent sexual partner develop unusual sores or rashes.
Other experts say the virus may be spreading more now due to reduced immunity to the associated smallpox virus since its eradication in 1980. Poxviruses often cause cross-immunity to other poxviruses, but that protection has faded over time. population for a variety of reasons, according to Joe Walker, an infectious disease epidemiologist and modeler at Yale School of Public Health.
“This ‘diminishing immunity’ is due less to weakening immunity on an individual level and more to dying people with immunity and giving birth to people without immunity and then remaining without immunity,” Walker told Gizmodo last week.
The risk of monkeypox to the general public is still considered low. And for now, Pavia says, there is no reason to panic or most people to have any worries. “But it’s early, so that can change,” he said.
In fact, health officials in Europe have warned that if these outbreaks are not controlled quickly and effectively enough, the virus could spread to new parts of the world and cause outbreaks on a regular basis. And while smallpox can be managed with preventative vaccines and treatments, the last thing the world needs right now is the problems of another emerging infectious disease.
This article has been updated with comments from Andrew Pavia and Joe Walker.
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