This overturned, injury-ridden series between the Boston Celtics and the Miami Heat was so bizarre that the scale of tonight’s Game 5 in Miami is almost creeping up on you.
Marcus Smart, Kyle Lowry, Al Horford, Jimmy Butler, Tyler Hero, Jason Tatum and Robert Williams III have missed part or all of at least one game. This deprived this series of any rhythm. Each game was its own unit. It’s almost as if the real series hasn’t started, but one team tonight will have two chances to win a game and qualify for the NBA Finals.
Any chance at this late stage is valuable. Miami has already made one of the greatest instant reconstructions in the history of modern sport, chasing its second finals in three years, even though it has almost zero flexibility or marketable assets only half a decade ago. His two most successful veterans, Butler and Lowry, are 32 and 36, respectively, and are suffering from leg injuries.
The Celtics are in their fourth final of the conference in six seasons; they have not yet won one in this era of Tatum-Smart-Jaylan Brown. The performances in 2017 and 2018 were fascinating – young teams exceeded expectations and (in 2018) pushed LeBron James and Cleveland Cavaliers to the limit.
Then drama and almost omissions. Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward recovered in 2019, but the paper jaggernaut fell apart in the second round amid struggles and Irving’s wandering eye. The Celtics met Miami in the conference finals next season in the bubble, losing a six-game heartbreaker that is inwardly considered a painful missed opportunity. They then fell so far that they became boyfriends in the first round for the Brooklyn Nets. More upheavals followed. Another loss and regret creeps into the tissue of this nucleus.
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Both teams are as well prepared as any other to defend Warriors’ noisy machine, suggesting that Golden State is up against the Dallas Mavericks. In particular, Boston played well with Golden State during the Steve Kerr / Stephen Curry era. Next season the circle of contenders will be fuller.
And while the Celtics seem to have the advantage – they have a plus of 28 in four games and are the best team in the league since January 1 – Miami has a home ground. Funny things happen in discreet games. One or two variables change Miami’s path tonight – Butler’s return to form after 14 points in 6 of 22 shots combined in Games 3 and 4, Hero Burning (if healthy), a random foul on Tatum or Brown – and Miami can lead the team 3-2, with two cracks in the finals. The Heat reminded us in Game 3 that they are tough enough, strong enough in defense to win even with Butler out after half time. Finish another one tonight and all the pressure is shifting to Boston.
The Miami defense gives him a chance almost every night. Lowry’s return — switchable, motionless on the block — strengthened that defense against Boston’s search for discrepancies. Max Strus is the only real target in Miami’s starting five and is big, smart and furious. Miami may limit the time it takes to include two of Strus, Gabe Vincent, Duncan Robinson and Hero. (Any ingredient in Miami without Both PJ Tucker and Butler are making some nervous moves against Tatum and Brown.)
Against the backdrop of all the chaos in the squad, the series may have reached a turning point in Boston’s victory in Game 4: The Celtics seem to have understood their favorite defenses and managed to perform.
The Miami Heat and Boston Celtics tied 2-2 with a trip to the NBA Finals online. You can capture the whole action of ESPN.
Game 5: Wed, Celtics in Heath (ESPN) Game 6: Fri., Heat in Celtics (ESPN) Game 7 *: Sunday, Celtics in Heath (ESPN)
* If necessary All games at 20:30 ET
The biggest question in the series was whether Heath could break through the Celtics’ defense to half the court. So far, they have mostly failed. Miami is scoring 90.9 points per 100 possession on the half-court against Boston, according to Cleaning The Glass, an estimate that would rank 27th in the regular season.
The Heat only won when they forced loads of revs to ignite their transition game. (Miami’s ability to generate revs was a very predictable factor.) Boston has 39 turnovers in Miami’s two wins and 18 in its two wins.
Throughout the season, Lowry was the driving force behind Miami’s transition game in the air and his return to Game 3 – his forward blows and relentless dedication to pace in the name of pace – as if he caught Boston unprepared.
Half the court is a different story.
Four games later, the Celtics decided to give up almost any action game with two, including Tucker and Bam Adebayo as screenwriters. This keeps Boston’s biggest defenders and bouncers close to the glass. The goal is to stay in front of the ball, barricade the paint, stick to outside shooters and force floating and long 2s. (Nearly half of Miami’s attempts in Game 4 were a mediocre, giant share.)
In earlier games, Adebayo beat some Boston switches with hard slips to the edge; The Celtics seemed determined to correct this in Game 4, even at the risk of finding other hits:
The Boston return scheme relies on security guards throwing themselves around kicks without being too far behind the Miami players. Every delay has a cascading effect: this ball leader has more daylight, Celtic, who protects the shielder, has to rise higher and higher to control it, and suddenly Adebayo plunges you into oblivion – or sucks help that reveals open 3s.
Every inch counts. Even an extra meter of track can be the difference between Adebayo raising a 14-foot floater and raging in a shot from a closer range:
Miami needs to unlock Adebayo again and Adebayo needs to push the problem. Adebayo had 31 points in Game 3; he has 25 combined in the other three games. There must be something between them.
The Celtics had hermetically circled the screens in Game 4. In any case, their big boys dared to take an extra step in action involving Strus. But even the best protection with heavy falls is given by a few open jumpers to dial. The Heat missed them in Game 4. To win this game and this series – and maybe to push Boston out of this scheme – they need to make a few punches like this:
These are difficult blows. It takes a lot to make a bunch of them. The NBA requires a lot at this stage.
Note that Peyton Pritchard is the target in both plays. The heat didn’t affect Pritchard or Derrick White enough in Game 4. (White is a very good defender, but Butler and Adebayo can harass him.) This probably had a lot to do with Hero’s absence, and Butler looked like a shell to himself, but they must swear by Boston’s rare vulnerabilities. (One favorite: whoever guards White or Pritchard should set up a back-off outside the ball for Butler – designed to provide him with a favorable switch while crashing into a post-climb position.)
Miami will insist at every opportunity, but will have to be more creative with a counter in the half. Vanilla high pick and roll will not do that.
It was no coincidence that Miami discovered the second half of Game 4 with this gem – a pick-and-roll that turns into a pindown for Strus:
Such games turn back schemes against themselves. The initial pick-up roll is a lure to make the defense withdraw so that no one is in a position to jump against Strus.
Screen-shielding actions – in which a third Miami player kills Adebayo’s defender while Adebayo is on his way to a pick-up role – have the same effect of tearing down the defense behind the game. Heat can mingle in pick-and-roll with Adebayo as the ball’s leader and try to surprise Boston with half-court screens – opening a long track – or low spikes around the foul line. Turning the corner of the choice at the last second can fool Boston here and there.
Miami could use Butler more as a screening if the Celtics put Williams on him again – mimicking a gambit that the Philadelphia 76ers tried with Joel Embeid. (Boston has more balls for Butler than in Game 1, and this tactic has worked.) It can displace a larger pick-and-roll attack by heading to Adebayo’s next game – using it as a catalyst for a Miami complex action game. outside the ball.
Quickly moving from one side to the other is always a convenient way to lure defense – and then attack elsewhere. Miami experienced more than that when Game 4 was out of control:
Heat could open some quick post-ups for Adebayo with similar actions, including cross-screen under the basket. Miami is an ingenious team with an ultra-high IQ. The heat makes magic in tight spaces. They need all the ingenuity they can muster now.
Boston selectively changes many of Miami’s other actions, sometimes as part of a plan and sometimes as improvisation. The Celtics are designed to switch all kinds of Lowry-Butler actions. They are experts in double switches – in rescuing younger boys from the stand before the attacker enters the ball.
Miami can beat some of these switches with the usual tricks: slipping hard, throwing ball and jet screens away from them, and overall high-speed creativity.
Miami is a little more adept at these things than Boston. The Celtics were perhaps the most effective this postseason, looking for discrepancies for Tatum and Brown. This can lead to blows to Boston stars or drive-and-kick series when the Boston offensive sings.
The strongest of those in Game 4 started with a double screen for Tatum by White (protected by Lowry) and Williams III (protected by Strus.) Lowry diagnosed the game early and ordered Strus to switch to Tatum’s first screen saver, White. Lowry wanted to be last in the chain so he could move to Tatum.
But Tatum outscored Lowry, which is hard to do. Tatum saw the first switch, leaving Strus white, and waved to Williams III. Tatum wanted Strus alone.
Tatum got the switch. Adebayo slipped from Horford into the corner to help. Tatum waved the ball at Horford. Horford struck past the closure of Adebayo and built a street for Williams III. Boom.
The NBA75 celebration continues with the NBA playoffs, which take place …
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