Kurdish-led forces have long been a pillar of Western efforts to defeat Islamic State militants in Syria. But Turkey’s antipathy to these groups threatens not only peace in Syria but also plans to expand NATO.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has threatened to block Finland and Sweden from joining the Western military alliance over their ties to Kurdish extremists, whom Ankara sees as a threat to internal security.
Ethnic Kurds live in Turkey, Syria, Iran and Iraq, but do not have a state of their own. Erdogan has threatened a new invasion of Syria to deal with the Syrian Kurdish People’s Defense Forces (YPG), which he considers synonymous with Turkey’s Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK), which took up arms against Ankara in 1984.
But the YPG’s crucial role in the fight against ISIS in northeastern Syria, where a ceasefire has been largely observed since 2019, means that Western allies such as the United States and even, some analysts say, Erdogan himself would not want to completely limit their operations in Syria.
The abandonment of Kurdish forces in Syria is likely to cause collapse and chaotic violence on a par with what we saw in Afghanistan last year. I think it’s completely implausible for the United States to make that kind of choice right now, “said Sam Heller, a Century Foundation staffer.
Ankara has long objected to Western support for the YPG, given its close ties to the PKK. The alliance has been deteriorating relations between Turkey and its NATO partners since its inception in 2014.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan © Turkish Presidency / AP
The United States has sought to make the YPG more acceptable to Turkey by creating the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led organization. Western countries, including Sweden and the United States, have backed the group. Supported by air strikes by the US-led coalition, he helped ISIL win in 2019.
The United States continues to rely heavily on the SDF to conduct operations against ISIS, stabilize post-ISIS areas and prevent its resurgence, Heller said.
On Tuesday, the United States warned Erdogan not to launch any operations in Syria, while the SDF said Turkey was “showing strength. . . is an attempt to destabilize the region and revive the remnants of ISIL. “
Experts largely agree that ISIL is not strong enough to restore its former “caliphate”. But the febrile atmosphere in northern Syria and complex geography mean dormant cells still carry out occasional rebel attacks.
The US-led coalition estimates that between 8,000 and 16,000 fighters are still operating in Syria and Iraq. About 10,000 alleged members of ISIL and thousands more of their families are in prisons and camps run by the SDF. Senior Kurdish officials have warned for years that these detention facilities are inadequate and vulnerable to attacks. But national governments are largely reluctant to repatriate their citizens for trial or rehabilitation, despite calls from the SDF to do so. In January, Islamic State escaped from the Hasaka prison, the group’s most serious attack in Syria in years, sparking a 10-day battle with coalition forces.
In a bid to boost economic activity, Washington last month allowed some foreign investment in SDF-controlled areas. US officials said they had consulted with Ankara on the move. But while it is unclear how much this has contributed to the tension, “I know the Turks are unhappy about this. “They said that to Americans and others,” Heller said.
Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) fighters leave the Turkish city of Akcakale to the Syrian border town of Tal Abiad © AFP / Getty Images
Turkish forces have made several incursions into northern Syria since 2016, targeting the SDF, and both countries have suffered casualties in attacks that continue despite the ceasefire. The threat of a new invasion could be a bluff by Erdogan, or he could step up his hand to negotiate other issues. But you can’t rule out an invasion, “said Daryn Khalifa, a senior Syria analyst at the International Crisis Group. She said such an attack would lead to chaos.
Erdogan is unlikely to bring his troops into direct conflict with the United States, analysts say, but will instead seek to hurt the SDF and make the US-SDF partnership less resilient. U.S. forces are “unlikely to intervene against their ally in the treaty,” Heller said. In addition, it is unlikely that the United States will launch such an attack in exchange for Turkey agreeing to Sweden’s and Finland’s NATO proposals, the caliph added.
The question remains, what does Erdogan hope to win.
Some analysts have suggested that Erdogan may want to pressure the United States to approve their request to buy new F-16 fighters. Others suggest it is a domestic move to boost nationalist support ahead of next year’s election.
For Erdogan, “foreign policy is always linked to his internal calculations to consolidate power,” said Gonul Tol, director of Turkey’s program at the Middle East Institute in Washington. By pushing the SDF out of the Turkish border, it could create enough space for a so-called “safe zone” to return Syrian refugees.
On Wednesday, Turkey said it would not rush to lift its veto following a meeting between Turkish, Swedish and Finnish negotiators in Ankara. Turkey first expects “concrete steps” from the two Scandinavian countries on its demands, which include recognizing the YPG as “terrorists”.
However, this is allowed, and the issue of Western support for the YPG will continue to harass NATO partners. “This is an ongoing vulnerability that will need to be addressed,” said Khalifa, whom Erdogan may continue to exploit.
Additional reports from Ayla Jean Yakli in Istanbul
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