As much as the British and their elected representatives wanted to break away from politics during the platinum anniversary celebrations, the question of the country’s political leadership has emerged at many street and garden parties.
“I would say that in all the events I’ve been to – and there are many – the vast majority have politely tried to avoid it where they can,” said a Tory MP from the southern constituency.
“But about half a dozen people searched me to talk about Boris, and everyone told me he had to go. These were Tory people. They said they trusted me to do my duty in the coming days. “
The same MP, who did not say publicly that Johnson should be ousted, although he was critical of him, said he had received about 400 emails on the leadership issue in the last few days, only four of which were in support of Prime Minister. “This is quite striking from the people who usually vote for the Tories,” he said, pointing out his line of thinking.
The feeling that support is gradually declining from Johnson is confirmed by stories of anniversary parties involving other Conservative MPs.
“People are not involved in politics because it’s all about the queen, aren’t they?” Said a former cabinet minister who is known to want to remove the prime minister from Downing Street as soon as possible. “But those who mentioned him in the circle said, ‘Well done for saying what he said,’ and everyone was of the opinion that he should leave.”
It was also widely noted among voters, he added, that Johnson was booed by a crowd full of royal enthusiasts in front of St. Paul’s Cathedral on Friday when he arrived with his wife Carrie: “His whole opinion is that he is popular and that he is winner. The reaction showed that he was no longer very popular. That will happen again. “
Boris Johnson was whistling when he arrived at Queen’s anniversary service – video
Another Tory MP from the northern seat said his constituents’ reaction was more mixed and less predictable, defending Johnson as much as they wanted him to leave, although he had also garnered enough discontent to made him write to Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Bench Committee, to ask for a vote of confidence. He had concluded that his efforts to survive as an MP on the ground with a small majority would be much better served by opposing the prime minister on the doorstep than by continuing to try to “protect the completely defenseless.”
It is not entirely impossible this weekend – as the country is celebrating the Queen’s throne’s seven decades – it could be Boris Johnson’s last as prime minister.
If that happened, he would have served less than three years on Downing Street, even less than his predecessor: Theresa May, whose short tenure he did so much to bring about a painful end to the controversy. their Brexit raged, lasted three years and 11 days.
MEPs return to Westminster on Monday. The issue of leadership will be on everyone’s mind. The tension will be almost unbearable for Johnson and his supporters, on the one hand, and those who want him to leave, on the other.
The focus will be on both Brady and Johnson himself. For the past few days, Brady, from his constituencies of Altrincham and Sale West, has been monitoring the number of letters and emails coming from conservative lawmakers asking for a vote of confidence in the prime minister.
Even before the anniversary break, about 30 Tories were in the public domain and called for the prime minister to leave, and more than a dozen were highly critical. Some of Johnson’s detractors said they felt the magic number was almost reached, even before they left for their constituencies 10 days ago.
After reaching 54, Brady should contact the prime minister as soon as possible to break the bad news and organize a secret ballot of the 359 Tory MPs. A senior Tory source said: “If we reach the figure, then it happens as soon as realistic. Obviously, if the Russians invade the East of England, there will be some leeway, but unless there are unforeseen events, the vote will be in a day or two.
Theresa May won a no-confidence vote in 2018, but resigned within six months. Photo: Andy Buchanan / PA
It may be that their number has reached 54 in the last few days and that Brady – aware of the need to prevent the political crisis from overshadowing the anniversary – has been slow to say so until the parties and concerts are over. Brady won’t say.
Only he knows the numbers. None of its employees has access to letters and emails. The rules state that if there is a vote of confidence, Johnson must win a majority (180) to remain as Conservative leader and remain prime minister. If he wins, the rules state that there can be no new vote of confidence for at least a year. But Johnson and every Conservative MP know it’s not just about winning: other factors also determine whether a leader will survive to run in another election.
It is also about the victory margin and the number of rebels. When Theresa May was put to a vote of confidence in December 2018, she won with 200 MPs who expressed their confidence in her, and 117 said the opposite. So almost twice as many of her deputies and ministers supported her than not. But without a conservative majority in municipalities after the 2017 general election, she was severely weakened at a time when she desperately needed numerical strength to get her Brexit deal through parliament, and she resigned within six months.
Johnson’s starting position seems far stronger. It has a working majority of 75 in the municipalities, taking into account the non-voting chairman and his deputies, as well as the incumbent Sinn Fein MPs. But while he is likely to win a simple majority, the big question many of his critics and defenders are asking this weekend is how much they can turn against him once the competition is announced.
“That’s the key,” said a Tory rebel. “If somewhere between 75 and 100 people voted against him, I think there will be big problems. It would go on, but it would be much harder for him to govern in times of economic hardship and much harder to pass legislation. “
That’s why some rebellious conservatives – including a number who have already sent letters to Brady – now think it would be best to postpone the vote of confidence until after two critical by-elections on June 23, in Tiverton and Honiton, where the Tories are endangered in the normal safe place of the Conservatives by the Liberal Democrats and in Wakefield, where Labor is expected to regain one of the traditional strongholds it lost to the Conservatives in 2019.
If the Conservatives lose both races in a fit of rage against Johnson over Partygate, then the party as a whole has a feeling that all bets can be rejected.
“At this point, the message will really reach colleagues that instead of winning the election, our leader has become a loser in the election,” the Tory rebel said. “So for those of us who want him out, it may be best to wait until the moment of maximum danger, which is probably around June 24.
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