In recent days, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukrainian advisers have said they do not want to cede any territory to Russia in the ongoing war in Ukraine. And although this view is widespread in Ukraine, they can dig into the political sand.
Zelenski’s position, which he and his advisers have repeated countless times, is, of course, well supported throughout the country. For the most part, Ukrainians do not want to give any land to Russia – 82 percent of Ukrainians are against it, according to a survey conducted by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology in May.
Zelensky said that Ukrainian fighters are able to repel Russian forces and even suggested that they want to return Russia not only to the borders before February 2022, but also to return the clock until before the Russian invasion in 2014.
But if Zelensky and his advisers have to face the realities of war one day and actually get closer to the negotiating table once more and consider – or make – territorial concessions, that could leave Zelensky on the brink of political turmoil, according to Stephen Pifer, and former US Ambassador to Ukraine.
“Zelensky will have to make some really difficult decisions between what concessions to make against the defense of principled positions and what concessions he may want to make that could be acceptable to the Ukrainian public,” Pifer told The Daily Beast. . “I think this will be a really, really difficult decision if they get to the point in the negotiations.
Smoke rises from a Russian tank destroyed by Ukrainian forces near the road in Luhansk region on February 26, 2022.
NATOLIY STEPANOV / AFP via Getty
Still, Zelenski knows it is a matter of when, not whether he will return to the negotiating table. Zelenski said last week that he believed the war would be resolved on the battlefield, but acknowledged that he would eventually try to strike a deal again.
“Victory must be achieved on the battlefield,” Zelenski said. But “every war must end at the negotiating table.”
At the beginning of the war, Ukrainian authorities sat down at the negotiating table with the Russians to see if any peace or deal could be reached. But Zelensky’s choice to accept the idea that Ukraine could reach an agreement with the Russians was met with criticism from Ukrainians, who questioned his assessment.
As the war rages and Ukrainians fall victim to Russian atrocities, Ukrainians are probably just killing each other.
“Attitudes have hardened in Ukraine, both in the government and among the people, so even if Zelensky wanted to make some of the concessions he could have considered 10 or 11 weeks ago, I’m not sure the Ukrainian population would accept that now.” said Pifer.
The consequences for Zelensky can develop in different ways. Zelenski’s political position has changed since the beginning of his rule. Before Putin invaded Ukraine in February, his internal approval ratings were undermined. Even as the invasion escalated, world leaders questioned his judgment when he tried to deny the seriousness of Putin’s plans for Ukraine and did not quickly withdraw his reservations.
But when the war broke out, Zelenski met the moment by exploding in the streets and fighting alongside his citizens. He became people’s president.
And although he keeps his finger on the pulse of the Ukrainian people and the state of their determination to repel Russia, it is unclear how long the brilliance of a political hero will carry him, especially when he has to start making decisions that are politically motivated. achieving true peace. And if Zelensky even approaches the negotiating table, his political future could be shot, according to Orisia Lutsevich, head of the Ukrainian forum on the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House.
“This could actually be the beginning of the end of Zelenski’s popularity if he enters negotiations,” Lutsevich said. “He has a very fine line when there is a negotiated agreement.
Residential building damaged by a rocket on February 25, 2022 in Kyiv, Ukraine.
Pierre Chrome / Getty
Entering political negotiations with Russia at this time would be like political suicide, agreed Elena Lennon, an associate professor of political science and national security at the University of New Haven.
“If Zelenski starts making concessions now, he knows very well where public opinion is and that there will be a backlash. This will be the end of his career, “said Lennon, suggesting that a veteran class could emerge to challenge Zelensky. “If he makes any concessions, there will be a mass social movement against it.”
In addition to any social or political movement against the negotiations, given how much Ukrainian fighters were invested in the war and how laser-focused they were on pushing Russia out if concessions were on the table, some kinetic battles could continue, although Zelensky decided to make it political, Lennon said.
“Guerrilla warfare could become a real possibility if the political leadership starts making concessions to Russia,” Lennon told The Daily Beast. “A large number of Ukrainians have either joined the Territorial Defense Forces or enlisted in the army. They are much more armed and have military experience. So there is a very high probability that Zelensky’s administration will be threatened with a military coup if it starts making concessions to Russia.
The Biden administration, for its part, is trying to stay away.
“We will not insist that Ukraine make concessions, and we have consistently stated that sovereign states have the right to choose their own alliances and make their own decisions about their security,” a State Department spokesman said. “We believe that Ukraine must determine what it considers a success.”
“We are focused on giving Ukraine the strongest possible hand on the battlefield and at the negotiating table,” the spokesman said.
Zelenski hinted that success in this war must first come to the battlefield – victories that have not yet materialized. Only last week, Russian and Ukrainian troops fought for the disputed and strategically important city of Severodonetsk, only the latest match that could determine the future of the war.
A poster of Russian President Vladimir Putin was used as a target exercise in a trench on the front line with Russian-backed separatists near the village of Zolote in the Luhansk region on January 21, 2022.
ANATOLIY STEPANOV / AFP via Getty
Zelenski is probably in a safe space politically now, as talks on ending battles and concessions are not yet on the table, said Andrew Losen, a former monitoring officer at the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). on the special monitoring mission to Ukraine.
“We are not at a time when any Ukrainian territorial concessions are planned,” Losen, a former State Department analyst, told The Daily Beast. “Until we get to the point where Ukraine is really facing growing logistical problems or the inability to put in a competent, defensive force, I don’t think we will talk much about territorial concessions.
Ukrainian officials are unlikely to push for talks in the near future because they still believe they could push the Russians back and are still worried about giving Putin something that may seem like a reward for the invasion, according to former ambassador Bill Taylor. of the United States in Ukraine, who was interim interim ruler in Ukraine from 2019 to 2020.
“They don’t sound like they’re ready to negotiate right now,” Taylor told The Daily Beast. “They know that part of Ukrainian territory can be won back on the battlefield, and they also know that some Ukrainian territories, perhaps Crimea, will take much longer and they are ready to accept, I think it will take time. longer.”
“Negotiations at this point would conclude Russian control over parts of southeastern Ukraine,” Taylor said. “So the Ukrainians – Zelensky and the people – still do not want to have this, because they do not want, A, to give up the request and B, they do not want to reward the Russians for their invasion.
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