Day after day, Russia struck the Donbass region of Ukraine with relentless artillery and air strikes, making slow but steady progress to capture its neighbor’s industrial center.
With the conflict in its fourth month, it is a high-stakes campaign that could dictate the course of the entire war.
If Russia prevails in the battle for Donbass, it will mean that Ukraine is losing not only land, but perhaps most of its most capable military forces, paving the way for Moscow to seize more territory and dictate its terms to Kyiv. Russia’s failure could lay the groundwork for a Ukrainian counter-offensive – and likely lead to political turmoil for the Kremlin.
After unsuccessful early attempts to invade Kyiv and Kharkiv’s second-largest city without proper planning and coordination, Russia turned its attention to Donbass, a region of mines and factories where Moscow-backed separatists have been fighting Ukrainian forces since 2014.
Learning from its earlier missteps, Russia has stepped more carefully there, relying on longer-range bombings to soften Ukraine’s defenses.
It seems to be working: better-equipped Russian forces have succeeded in both the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, which make up the Donbass, controlling more than 95% of the former and about half of the latter.
Ukraine is losing between 100 and 200 troops a day, presidential adviser Mikhail Podoliak told the BBC as Russia “threw almost everything non-nuclear on the front lines”. Earlier, President Vladimir Zelensky set the daily death toll at 100.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov described the fighting situation as “extremely difficult”, using a reference to an ancient deity of sacrifice, saying: “Russian Moloch has many means to devour human lives to satisfy his imperial ego.”
When the war was bad for Russia, many believed that President Vladimir Putin could claim victory after some success in Donbass and then emerge from a conflict that severely damaged the economy and expanded its resources. But the Kremlin has indicated that it expects Ukraine to recognize all of Russia’s gains since the invasion, something Kyiv has ruled out.
Russian forces control the entire coast of the Sea of Azov, including the strategic port of Mariupol, the entire Kherson region – a key gateway to Crimea – and much of the Zaporozhye region that could help further drill deeper into Ukraine, and few expect Putin will stop.
On Thursday, he drew parallels between the Ukrainian conflict and the 18th-century wars with Sweden led by Peter the Great. Now, as in those tsarist times, “it is our destiny to reclaim and consolidate” the historic Russian lands, Putin said. Moscow has long considered Ukraine part of its sphere of influence.
Unlike previous battlefield failures, Russia appears to be using more conservative tactics. Many expected him to try to encircle Ukrainian forces with massive pliers from the north and south, but instead used a series of smaller movements to force a retreat and not over-expand its supply lines.
Keir Giles, an expert on Russia at the London think tank Chatham House, said Russia was “concentrating all its artillery on one section of the front line to make its way forward, leveling everything in its path.”
Western officials still praise the ability of Ukrainian forces to defend their country by retaliating fiercely and similarly relying on artillery and retreating in some areas as frequent counterattacks begin.
“Ukraine is pursuing a policy of flexible defense, giving room where it makes sense to do so, instead of holding on to every inch of territory,” Giles said.
A senior Western official, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the sensitive issue in public, said the Russian campaign “remains deeply concerned at all levels”, noting that Moscow’s forces are taking weeks to achieve even modest tactical goals such as the conquest of individual villages. “
Last month, the Russians lost almost an entire battalion in an unsuccessful attempt to cross the Seversky Donets River and build a bridgehead. Hundreds were killed and dozens of armored vehicles were destroyed.
“There is a sense of strategic improvisation or confusion,” the official said, predicting that in the summer the Russian military could reach a “point where it can no longer effectively generate offensive combat power.”
Russia has a clear advantage in artillery in the battle for Donbass, thanks to more heavy howitzers and missiles and an abundance of ammunition. The Ukrainians had to be economical in using their artillery, with the Russians constantly directing their supply lines.
Ukraine has begun receiving more heavy weapons from Western allies, which have provided dozens of howitzers, and now plan to begin supplying volley fire systems.
Putin warned that if the West gave Kyiv longer-range missiles that could hit Russian territory, Moscow could hit targets in Ukraine, which it has spared so far. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also said Russia could respond by seizing more land as a buffer zone for such weapons.
Moscow’s earlier territorial gains in the south, including the Kherson region and much of the neighboring Zaporozhye region, have prompted Russian officials and their local appointments to consider plans to join the regions or declare them independent. called “people’s republics” Donetsk and Lugansk.
Ukrainian officials and Western analysts have expressed concern that Moscow could try to push its offensive into the densely populated and industrialized Dnieper region further north, progress that could potentially cut Ukraine in two and pose a new threat to Kyiv.
“Russia’s goals in the context of this war are changing depending on the situation on the ground,” said Eleonora Tafuro Ambroseti, an analyst at the Milan-based Italian Institute for International Political Studies.
“Their goals are flexible enough to adapt to the context on the ground,” she said, noting that Russia could try to harm Ukraine’s economy by occupying the entire coast to deny access to shipping.
Russia’s top general is already talking about plans to cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea by capturing the Nikolaev and Odessa regions all the way to the Romanian border, a move that would also allow Moscow to build a land corridor to Moldova’s separatist Transnistria region where Russia is located. military base.
All such ambitions depend on Moscow’s success in the east. Defeat in Donbass would put Kyiv in a precarious position, with recruits lacking the skills of battle-hardened soldiers now fighting in the east and supplies of Western weapons insufficient to repel potentially deeper Russian pressure.
Ukrainian authorities have dispelled those fears, expressing confidence that its military can stand up to halt Russian progress and even launch a counterattack.
“Ukraine’s plan is clear: Kyiv is draining the Russian military, trying to gain time for more supplies of Western weapons, including air defense systems, in hopes of launching an effective counter-offensive,” said analyst Nikolai Sunkhurovsky of the Razumkov Center and based in Kyiv. brain trust.
Philip Breedlove, a retired U.S. Air Force general who served as NATO’s commander-in-chief from 2013 to 2016, warned against any ceasefire that would codify Russia’s success on the battlefield.
“It’s like raising a 2-year-old,” he said. “If you allow bad behavior to stay, or worse, if you reward bad behavior, you will get more bad behavior.”
When Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, Washington’s response was inadequate, and when Moscow took over Crimea in 2014, “the response from the West and the United States was insufficient,” Breedlove added.
Now that Russia is back for more, the West has another chance to respond. “How we end this war, I think, will decide whether we will see more than that in the future,” he added.
___
Associated Press writers Lolita S. Baldor in Washington, Juras Karmanau in Lviv, Ukraine, Jill Lawless and Sylvia Hui in London, and Francis D’Emilio in Rome.
___
Connect
Do you have questions about the attack on Ukraine? Send dotcom@bellmedia.ca an email.
- Please provide your name, location and contact information if you would like to speak to a CTV News reporter.
- Your comments can be used in the history of CTVNews.ca.
Add Comment