WASHINGTON – Senior Biden officials say they believe the next four weeks will shape the end result of Russia’s war in Ukraine with long-term consequences that will affect the map of Europe for decades to come.
While officials still expect the war to be long and hard, they say it is imperative that Ukraine rush in with as many new weapons as possible – especially long-range and anti-artillery radar artillery – to repel Russia’s new offensive in the eastern Donbass region. .
Reflecting a renewed sense of urgency, President Biden announced on Thursday that the United States would send an additional $ 800 million in military aid to Ukraine, the second such package in just over a week.
Mr Biden said the latest aid package had sent an “unmistakable message” to Russian President Vladimir Putin: “He will never be able to dominate and occupy all of Ukraine.”
Speaking at the White House, Mr. Biden said that while the United States has released many details about the weapons it supplies to Ukraine, some of the weapons will be kept secret. The president borrowed and modified a famous remark by Theodore Roosevelt that the United States would “speak softly and carry a large spear,” a reference to the anti-tank weapons that Ukrainians used effectively against Russian armor.
Determined to act quickly, Defense Minister Lloyd J. Austin III and General Mark A. Millie, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, spoke with allies around the world this week and identified next month as key.
If Russia manages to break through to the east, Mr Putin will be better positioned at home to sell his so-called “special military operation” as a limited success and claim to have secured the protection of Ukraine’s pro-Russian minority. said US officials. He could then demand a ceasefire, but would be encouraged to use Donbass as a lever to influence any negotiations, they said. Officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss operational issues.
But if the Ukrainian military manages to stop Russia’s offensive in Donbass, officials say Putin will be faced with a clear choice: to devote more fighting power to a battle that could drag on for years, or to negotiate seriously in peace talks.
The first option could mean full national mobilization, officials say, and is politically risky for the Russian leader.
The next phase of the war “will be extremely important,” said Peter Maurer, president of the International Committee of the Red Cross, which visited Ukraine in March. “The escalation of hostilities in Donbass and all areas affected by the armed conflict is of great concern.
This week at the Pentagon, both Mr. Austin and General Millie had ongoing phone calls and meetings with allies on one topic: weapons. Mr Austin spoke with his Romanian counterpart on Monday and with the Spanish defense minister on Tuesday. On Wednesday, he met with Poland’s defense minister, and on Thursday he met with his Czech counterpart.
President Biden with Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III, center, and General Mark A. Millie, right, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, at the White House on Wednesday. On Thursday, Mr Biden announced an additional $ 800 million in military aid to Ukraine. Credit … Sarabet Manny / New York Times
All four discussions were the same, officials said: how to deliver more powerful weapons to Ukraine in the coming weeks.
After weeks of focusing on anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons such as Javelins and Stingers, new supplies last week include long-range artillery, tactical vehicles and mobile radar systems to help Ukrainians find and destroy Russian artillery positions.
Other countries are sending tanks, more artillery and anti-ship missiles.
General Millie’s phone diary this week looks like a roll call to countries with heavy artillery and armaments: Australia, Britain, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Sweden and Turkey.
A senior Defense Ministry official has identified next month as a crucial turning point for both Russia and Ukraine. This phase of the battle seems to favor Russia to some extent, as Russian troops move in more open terrain instead of sinking into cities.
But the official said the Pentagon believed that with the right weapons and continued high morale and motivation, Ukrainian forces could not only stop Russia’s offensive but repel it.
“The Russians are in a weakened state from which they can recover, given enough time and new recruits,” said Evelyn N. Farkas, a senior Pentagon official for Russia and Ukraine during the Obama administration when Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula. “That is why it is of the utmost importance to strike at them now with everything we can give to the Ukrainians.
Current and former US military commanders with experience in Ukraine and Europe have agreed.
“For Ukraine, it is good or broken, as they must stop Russia’s offensive to take over the whole of Donbass,” said Major General Michael S. Repas, a retired former commander of the US Special Operations Forces in Europe who served in Ukrainian defense issues since 2016, writes in an email.
If Mr Putin succeeds in capturing the east and creating a land corridor to Crimea, General Repas said Moscow would have a stronger position in any negotiating agreement.
“After another month, I expect exhaustion on both sides without a military decision / result anyway,” wrote General Repas. “The stalemate means that Putin is winning, and if Putin” wins “, we will have a hard time.”
To try to prevent such an outcome, current and former US commanders say Ukraine’s military will seek to disrupt Russia’s military build-up around the eastern city of Izyum and other important areas with long-range artillery and armed drones.
“It’s also about destroying the Russians while they’re still in recovery and training before they can really get back on their feet,” said Lt. Gen. Frederick B. Hodges, a former senior U.S. military commander. Europe, which is now with the Center for European Policy Analysis.
Although Moscow is narrowing its targets and consolidating its army in southern and eastern Ukraine, the outcome of the war remains unclear at best, military analysts say. In fact, the main weaknesses in Russian forces that were uncovered in the first weeks of the conflict did not necessarily have disappeared, they said.
For example, thousands of Russian reinforcements pouring into Ukraine – including mercenaries, conscripts and troops withdrawn from far-eastern Russia and Georgia – have not trained together, analysts say.
This month, Ukrainian troops towed a captured Russian tank to Nova Basan, Ukraine. As Russian forces enter Donbass, they will extend their supply lines and may face the same logistical problems that plagued them before, officials said. Credit … Ivor Priket for The New York Times
The battered units that withdrew from northern Ukraine will also need time to regroup. Some will be filled in and sent back into battle. But others are so damaged that the rest will be patched up in a new unit, analysts said.
“They don’t have much opportunity to generate new forces if the current units are facing too much depletion,” said Rob Lee, a Russian military specialist at the Philadelphia Institute of Foreign Affairs and a former U.S. Marine officer.
“Once this offensive starts in earnest, Russia will suffer more losses,” Mr Lee said. “At some point, the exhaustion will be too great and will limit the ability of the Russian military to conduct effective offensive operations.
As Russian forces enter Donbass, they will extend their supply lines and face the same logistical shortcomings that plagued them before, officials said.
“We will see in the next few weeks how much they have learned and how much they have improved,” said General Hodges.
Even if Russian forces prevail over the next month or so, the specter of this army, which was then advancing on western Ukraine or beyond Ukraine’s borders – a real fear at the start of the war – now seems overwhelmed, several officials said.
“Win, lose or draw, the Russian military is likely to be expended after this next phase,” said Michael Coffman, director of Russian research at CNA, a research institute in Arlington, Virginia. “Russia will be under a lot of pressure to support any campaign outside Donbass.
But a senior Defense Ministry official warned that for Mr Putin, the whole of Ukraine – not just Donbass – has always been the biggest reward.
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