Community transmission of COVID-19 may have peaked, but new modeling from the Ontario Scientific Table warns that hospital employment “is likely to continue to rise for some time” and may approach the levels observed during the height of the fifth wave of last winter’s pandemic.
A group of scientists and epidemiologists advising the Ford government on its response to the pandemic has released new estimates suggesting that the number of Ontarians hospitalized with COVID-19 could exceed 3,000 by May in the most likely scenario.
Researchers say that in a more pessimistic scenario, more than 4,000 people could be hospitalized with COVID-19 by May, approaching the peak reached in mid-January, when 4,183 people with COVID-19 were hospitalized.
The table also predicts that the number of COVID patients in intensive care beds will increase, but says the final peak is likely to be lower than during the fifth wave of the Omicron-powered pandemic.
The most likely scenario is to see about 500 patients in intensive care with COVID by May, according to the table. Meanwhile, the worst-case scenario will see more than 600 people in the intensive care unit with COVID-19 by May. In January, the number of people in the intensive care unit peaked at 626.
“We really have a lot of uncertainty here and we’re not entirely sure how this will develop,” Dr Peter Juni, the scientific director of the table, told CP24 on Thursday afternoon. “We are relatively convinced that the occupancy of the hospital and the intensive care unit should probably be lower this time than last time, and that helps. But there is one caveat. The warning is that you again have a lot of healthcare workers knocked out (by infection) at about the same level as last time during the Omicron wave, and this will increase the strain on the healthcare system. “
Recent estimates paint a much more worrying picture than the model published in last month’s chart, which says there will be about 800 COVID patients in hospital by May, as well as another 300 in the intensive care unit.
However, this was before Ontario repealed the mask’s mandate in most circumstances, along with a number of other public health restrictions.
It also dates from the more infectious sub-variant BA.2, which is becoming dominant in Ontario, which according to the scientific table has now occurred around 10 March.
In a presentation accompanying the latest data, the scientific table states that masking in closed areas “will significantly reduce the risk of receiving and spreading COVID-19” and notes that the benefits to the community of masking are most pronounced when widely accepted. in public spaces, schools and workplaces. “
Although the table does not explicitly call for the return of a direct mandate for a mask, Juni told CP24 that he would like to see masks needed in schools, given the increase in broadcasting.
“Personally, I think that most of my colleagues or all of my colleagues at the science table would probably really welcome a mask mandate at school,” June said. “Why? We’re still in a really challenging situation. Probably about five percent of the population is currently infected with COVID, and that, of course, is reflected in schools. It probably won’t hurt to go beyond strong recommendations. But I know there are and political considerations and that is beyond my role. “
Hospitalizations are increasing by more than 23% of the week
In the last week, the number of people in Ontario hospitals with COVID-19 has increased by 23.6% and is now 1392, which is the highest number since mid-February.
The good news is that the rate of increase, at least so far, is not as pronounced as it was in January, when hospitals were forced to cancel planned operations and procedures for about three weeks.
In a statement issued Thursday afternoon, Health Secretary spokeswoman Christine Elliott said the latest modeling suggested that Ontario would be able to drive the show’s growth without imposing additional public health measures or restoring the mask mandate.
“Hospitalizations are not increasing at the same rate as the fifth wave, and with the extra capacity the province has added since the pandemic, Ontario Health is confident in the system’s ability to manage the current wave’s impact on hospitals,” Alexandra said.
The scientific chart estimates that between 4.5 and six million Ontario residents have been infected with COVID-19 since December 1, representing at least a third of the province’s population.
It says the high number of infections is likely to have some long-term effects on the health system, with conservative estimates suggesting that 10% of unvaccinated individuals who become infected eventually develop long-term COVID.
“This is likely to have an important impact on the economy, the health care system and society for years to come,” the table warns.
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