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Former President Donald Trump’s rally for Ohio Senate candidate JD Vance on Saturday is likely to be the biggest event in a fierce race – and the race could be the biggest test of Trump’s support.
Trump backed Vance for the Republican Senate nomination in Ohio after months of leading candidates vying for his support. Rivals Mike Gibbons, Jane Timken and Josh Mandel – all advised and approved by at least some regular visitors to Trump’s world – have argued with Vance and each other about whose support for Trump is truer.
For most of the race, Mandel and Gibbons seem to be in the lead. They were effectively tied at the top of the Fox News poll of the race in early March, with Vance, Timken and Ohio Senator Matt Dolan gathering in second tier in the race.
Ohio Republican nominee JD Vance at the Up Chaos Conference, hosted by American Moment and The American Conservative. (Fox News)
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But then Trump chose Vance, putting Vance in contention for the nomination.
“This is a case where Trump’s approval can really change everything,” Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Policy, told Fox News. “He was not one of the two leaders. But it seems to me that Trump’s approval could easily lead to Vance’s victory.”
Sabato added: “There is no runoff here. And if you have five candidates splitting the vote, it becomes easier. And if that was part of Trump’s calculation, it was a smart calculation.”
From Vance’s point of view, Trump’s approval eliminates one of the most common attacks on his candidacy: that he was highly critical of Trump during his first presidential election in 2016.
Former President Donald Trump Rally in Selma, North Carolina, April 9, 2022 (Peter Zay / Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
“It’s extremely powerful. “I think this is the only approval in politics that actually drives votes and drives a lot of votes, especially here in Ohio,” Vance told Fox News about Trump’s approval.
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“Especially considering that so many of the advertisements for attacking me focus on the fact that I was critical of Trump in 2016, yes, that’s pretty solid support that the president believes me,” Vance added. “Obviously the president supports me and sees me as the candidate who is most in line with his agenda. And so I think that beats a lot of the negative advertisements for attacks on my candidacy.”
Vance told Fox News that those present at the Trump rally can expect to be treated not only with increased support from the former president, but also with the traditional entertainment of the Trump rally.
“We’re going to have a great speech from Trump, half of which will be written and half of it will be, you know, telling jokes and making everyone have fun,” Vance said.
JD Vance, of the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), spoke to Fox News on February 26, 2022 in Orlando, Florida. (Fox News)
The Ohio GOP race will be a remarkable test of the strength of Trump’s approval, largely because so many candidates are trying to agree with Trump and because it’s so early.
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Other races with similar crowded fields of Trump candidates have yet to take place – including the Pennsylvania and Alabama Senate races and the Nevada governor’s race.
Other cases for Trump’s approval after the presidency include Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin – who was in a general election focused on schools – and the Republican primary in Texas with established holders such as Gov. Greg Abbott.
Senator Ted Cruz, R-Texas, spoke at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) on Thursday, February 24, 2022, in Orlando, Florida. Cruz will campaign for Ohio Senate candidate Josh Mandel ahead of the Republican primary. (AP Photo / John Raoux)
In addition, in Ohio, even non-Trump candidates accept “Trumpism” and have strong support from Trump’s Republican allies.
Gibbons is supported by Representative Kat Kammak, R-Fla., And Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky.
Timken is supported by Senator Rob Portman, R-Ohio, Shelley Moore Capito, RW.Va., Deb Fisher, R-Neb., And Joni Ernst, R-Iowa.
Senator Ted Cruz, R-Texas, supports Mandel and will campaign with him in Ohio in the last days before the May 3 primary.
Dolan, who was the only major contender in the race who did not lobby hard for Trump’s support, won approval from the Cleveland Plain Dealer earlier this month.
Senate GOP candidate Mike Gibbons of Ohio spoke to Fox News at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) on February 26, 2022 in Orlando, Florida (Fox News)
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“America in the first place is more than just the Republican Party or a particular politician. “It’s a movement that seeks to put the interests of the American people back at the heart of the government,” Gibbons said in a statement. “True, authentic conservative leadership is needed to take on the failures of the Biden administration, and conservative voters take responsibility for deciding who is best qualified to represent the party.
“Jane Timken has a proven America First record that no one else in the race can claim,” said Timken spokesman Mandy Merritt. While JD Vance was in Silicon Valley and in the cable news studios, calling President Trump “Hitler of America” and accusing the MAGA of being “racist,” Jane Timken traveled 150,000 miles around Ohio, doing important work to dismantle the facility. Kasich and the transformation of Ohio into pro-Trump, a conservative stronghold. “
Ohio Senate nominee and former Republican Speaker Jane Timken signs Promise Critical Race Theory at her campaign office in Columbus, Ohio, July 12, 2021 (Jane Timken Senate Campaign)
Trump’s approval of Vance did not seem to allay fears about him from at least some Ohio activists. Half of Trump’s Ohio RNC delegates in 2016 signed a letter this week calling Trump’s support for Vance a “betrayal” and asking him to “reconsider.” This was followed by a similar letter last week, in which the GOP Central Committee in Ohio and a group of GOP district chairmen asked Trump not to support the race at all.
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Even if Trump’s support for Vance does not lead to victory for Hillbilly Elegy author and former investment banker, Sabato said, Trump is unlikely to suffer any consequences.
“What Trump is going to say, and it’s really somewhat credible, is that ‘Well, it’s all for me, or at least four of the five,'” Sabato said. “Trump has an easy way out…” They saw what a great job I was doing and everyone lined up and we will all stand behind the nominee. “
“Also, suppose Vance loses, but loses within a few points,” Sabato added. “Well, that’s defensive.… That won’t diminish Trump’s support among Republican voters, because his preferred choice loses by two points if that happens.”
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But Vance said he did not expect to lose and believed Trump’s support would help him rise to the top.
“A lot of people say they believe in America First, but they don’t really have the president’s support and they don’t trust the people who did America First,” Vance said. “A lot of people want votes to say certain things. But I’m the only candidate who actually has the president’s trust and approval.”
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