Senate Republicans downplayed the impact of the House of Representatives hearing on Jan. 6, which shed new light on former President Trump’s actions to incite a mob to storm the Capitol in a bid to halt Joe Biden’s victory.
In general, Senate Republicans feel confident that harmful revelations will not have a big impact on the by-elections, citing economic factors such as inflation as much more important for voter turnout.
But Republican senators are less sure what testimony to the commission, which received widespread media coverage, means about Trump’s viability as president in 2024.
There are signs that Trump’s popularity among Republican voters is waning, but Republican lawmakers are reluctant to rule out his chances of winning in 2024, given how he defied forecasts in 2016.
“To the extent that there are people who have not decided or have an opinion in one way or another, maybe something that will change will come out of it,” Sen. Minority Sen. (RS.D.) said when he was asked what impact he thought the January 6 hearings could have on voters. “But it just seems like it’s mostly copying right now.”
“It simply came to our notice then. Who knows if I will run again, “he added.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), Who along with Thun called on Republican Senate colleagues not to support objections to the Electoral College’s calculations, told reporters last week that he was not focused on the House hearings. of representatives.
“I’m focusing on what we’re doing in the Senate, and I think the most important thing we’re doing right now is the Veterans Bill and the issue [going] forward on these violent crimes that we have witnessed, “he said, referring to the negotiations on a weapons safety bill.
However, McConnell also said in December that it would be important to find out more about what caused the attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021.
“I think the fact-finding is interesting. We will all watch it, “he said six months ago. “It was a terrible event and I think what they want to know is something the public needs to know.
Many Senate Republicans are skeptical that the hearings will damage Trump’s popularity among the base, which is a big reason why they avoid commenting on what Trump knew and did before and during the attack.
Senator Shelley Moore Capito (RW.Va.), an adviser to McConnell’s leadership team, said she had followed some of the hearings but “learned nothing too new”.
“Yes, they are significant, but I’m not sure that will change anyone’s opinion,” she said.
Asked what it means for Trump if he runs for president in 2024, Capito said: “Let 2022 pass.”
Recent polls show that support for Trump among Republican voters is waning, although he remains a great political force.
A poll by NBC News last month found that Republican voters are beginning to see their party as more important than Trump himself. A study by Hart Research Associates and Public Opinion Strategies found that 58 percent of Republicans described themselves as greater supporters of the Republican Party than Trump, compared with 38 percent just before the 2020 election.
Political experts say Republican lawmakers should not ignore the impact of the hearings on voters.
“Hearings are unlikely to move the needle among Republicans, but Republican senators need to worry about independent voters. These people are often influenced by new information, and there is a lot of evidence here, and this group of voters can change enough to make a difference in the upcoming election, “said Darrell West, director of governance research at the Brookings Institution.
“Trump has dealt a blow to the country as a whole, and even among Republicans, his numbers have dropped slightly,” West said.
“It may not be enough to deny him the nomination if it is a crowded field, but if he ends up in a one-on-one primary battle, his declining condition could be problematic,” he added.
Democrats believe that Trump’s efforts to undermine the results of the 2020 elections will be a problem in the interim mandates and in 2024, especially if he is on the ballot.
“I think people who look at it really see it as an ongoing criminal conspiracy. Not only on January 6, but we certainly see in Michigan that they are trying to replace opinion workers and are doing things to create real chaos in the vote, so that people have no confidence in the vote, “said Senator Debbie Stabenow. Mich.), Chairman of the Committee on Democratic Policy and Communications.
But Republicans say the testimony doesn’t seem to be breaking through among voters at home.
“No one has ever told me anything about this at home,” said Senator Kevin Kramer (RN.D.). “I do not know if I know anyone who has watched it. No one has ever posed it as a problem. “
Kramer said he could not speculate on what the hearings meant about Trump’s political future, because “to be honest, this is not a very high priority in my life or for anyone in the life of my universe.”
“Most people see it as a television production based on something that’s not really a high priority, given what’s going on in the world,” he said. “I really haven’t watched the news.”
Senator Mike Rounds (RS.D.) said he watched the first day of the hearings and parts of the second day.
“I think they made a very good production. They spent their time effectively, “he said, but added that” they didn’t tell me anything I didn’t already know. “
Senator Lisa Markowski (Alaska), one of seven Republican senators who voted to condemn Trump in his second impeachment trial for inciting the uprising, said Republicans who did not support the group’s creation “basically say it’s a reconsideration of everything there. “
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“I’m sure there are many who have not paid any attention to this, and there are those who were simply absolutely and perhaps traumatized by the events of January 6 and so were glued to him after that and through the impeachment procedure.” she said.
Murkowski said various senators were trying to contact senior officials in the Trump administration to end the January 6 violence, and that it was interesting to learn more details about the day. But she doesn’t know if it matters much to Trump’s political future.
She said she would think immediately after Jan. 6 that Trump’s influence in the Republican Party would be greatly reduced, but “a year later he clearly has a level of political influence that has not diminished in many areas.”
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