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PARIS – The polls began in the run-off to the French presidential election, which is being closely monitored around the world for its potential to redefine France’s position in the Western world, the country’s approach to immigration and Europe’s relations with Russia.
The latest average poll on Friday before the election suspension showed that incumbent President Emmanuel Macron is 10 percentage points ahead. A victory by far-right contender Marine Le Pen seems unlikely, though still possible.
Among the sources of uncertainty: Macron’s victory would mean a rare re-election of an incumbent president in a country where voters are known not to forgive their leaders. He has almost the same level of enthusiasm for him as when he first ran in 2017, starting his own centrist political movement and becoming France’s youngest president.
In addition, the final polls missed the result difference of nearly nine percentage points in 2017. This time, turnout could be critical. And after the surprising success of the Brexit referendum in 2016, few in Europe are ready to count the unexpected.
Macron v. Le Pen 2022: What to know about the run-off in the French presidential election
This election has brought the far right closer to the French presidency than ever before. In the first round of voting on April 10, Macron received 28 percent of the vote and Le Pen 23 percent.
French President Emmanuel Macron is trying to repel the victory of far-right candidate Marine Le Pen in the April 24 presidential election. (Video: James Cornsillk, Rick Noak, Alexa Juliana Ard / The Washington Post, Photo: Jackie Lay / The Washington Post)
Winning the 53-year-old Le Pen run-off will put an anti-immigrant populist at the helm of the European Union’s second-largest economy and its only nuclear power. This will replace an ardent defender of the EU with a longtime critic of the bloc. Le Pen’s past admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin and her recent calls for NATO-Russia reconciliation have also raised fears that a victory for the far-right will enable a leader who shares Putin’s worldview and could become a key obstacle to Western support for Ukraine.
Most of the candidates who failed to qualify for the second round begged their supporters not to vote for Le Pen. Her hopes are now largely based on the potential for a high abstention rate among Macron voters.
Le Pen cast her vote at the far-right fortress of Henin-Beaumont in northern France on Sunday morning, taking the opportunity to mingle with the crowds waiting for her in front of the polling station and take a selfie with supporters. Macron was expected to vote in Le Touquet, a seaside town where he often stays on election weekends.
During his first term, the 44-year-old Macron repeatedly bet his future on risky political gambling with mixed results – imposing tax cuts on the rich, which offended many of his left-wing supporters, but also managed to successfully introduce a vaccine pass in one of the most vaccine-skeptical nations in Europe.
Macron focuses on Le Pen for Russia, Putin joins final debate on French elections
His re-election strategy seemed like another bet. He hardly campaigned before the first round, instead focusing on the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. It is not uncommon for French incumbents to avoid the traces of the election campaign, but his decision allowed Le Pen to argue as he traveled the country that he was more adapted to the economic concerns in the minds of French voters.
If Macron’s last-minute campaign ends with a convenient re-election, it will boost a president who has sometimes been underestimated.
But depending on the difference in his victory, Macron could face a tough second term – marked by resistance in the streets and in parliament – which could further polarize the country and promote the periphery of French politics.
Almost 60 percent of voters voted for far-right or far-left candidates in the first round.
“There will be very little enthusiasm if he is re-elected,” said Vincent Martini, a political scientist at the University of Nice. “The legitimacy of his mandate will depend on how big the difference is – and also how he reacts to victory.
“The question is, will he hear the feeling of malaise that exists in the French electorate?” Martini said. – Will he be able to change?
When Macron faced Le Pen five years ago, he beat her by more than 30 percentage points. The fact that the difference was single-digit at certain points in this cycle suggests that Le Pen was able to normalize his party and moderate his image.
How Marine Le Pen moderated his image and approached the French presidency
The support of the far right was unthinkable for many in France at the time when Le Pen took over from his father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, who was known for xenophobia and calling Nazi gas chambers a “World War II detail”.
Le Pen renamed the National Front party a National Rally in 2018. She downplayed her family ties, calling the campaign posters “Marines” or simply “M.”
But much of the party’s DNA has remained intact. In this campaign, Le Pen called for a referendum to end immigration in France, for women to be fined for wearing headscarves in public, and for a first-come, first-served approach in France to policies that would confront her directly. the laws and values of the European Union.
Europe fears a possible presidency of Le Pen in France as a threat from within
However, her campaign focuses on capturing public disillusionment with Macron’s economic and social policies. She also encouraged Macron, a former investment banker, to be a “president of the rich” who could be outspoken and arrogant.
In Hénin-Beaumont, where Le Pen voted on Sunday, Joel Vivil said on Saturday that he would vote for Le Pen “for change”.
“Five years of difficult times for Macron is enough,” said 57-year-old Vivil, who is unemployed.
But Jean-Philippe Diane, 56, said he was not convinced by Le Pen’s proposals. “I want to allow it [Macron] he has another mandate to continue what he has introduced, “he said, citing a series of crises that disrupted Macron’s presidency, including the coronavirus pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
Macron hopes that for all voters who do not like him, more people are strongly opposed to Le Pen.
“April 24 is a referendum on the future of France,” Macron told BFM in a final interview Friday night, comparing bets – and potential risks of abstention – to the 2016 US election and the Brexit vote. “This is a choice between leaving Europe or not … choosing between abandoning the environment or not, choosing between abandoning or not abandoning the secular republic,” he said.
Macron’s approval rating has been around 45% in recent months. His two most recent predecessors, center-left Francois Hollande and center-right Nicolas Sarkozy, both had lower ratings at the end of their one-year presidency, with Hollande at around 20 per cent and Sarkozy at around 35 per cent. Sarkozy was not re-elected until Hollande ran for a second term.
Birnbaum reports from Riga and Petit reports from Hénin-Beaumont, France.
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