And Sir Keir Starmer, reflecting on the less huge yet significant Labor victory in Wakefield (whose last Tory MP is in prison for pedophilia), said: “If they had any decency, they would be out of the way for the next Labor. government. His victorious candidate, Simon Lightwood, touched a stern nerve when he said, “Boris Johnson, your contempt for this country is no longer tolerated.
Decoding the resignation letter of Oliver Dowden, a former party chairman, reveals similar sentiments. He sent him into what seemed like a mixture of rage and disgust at 5.35 in the morning. It did not contain Mr. Johnson’s approval. It states that “our supporters are concerned and frustrated by recent events” – a reference to “Partygate” – “and I share their feelings”. In a particularly prominent reference to the cabinet’s role as a council, not as a seal for its leader, he added: “We cannot continue with our usual business. Someone has to take responsibility. “
Wakefield, which won Labor in the Red Wall, was routine for a midterm election in a government-held margin. However, the Tiverton crash was not a typical medium-term defeat. Rather, it was an indication of how much conservatives had lost their support in places whose loyalty had once been taken for granted.
Among conservative voters in 2019, support and respect for the party have declined since the beginning of the pandemic in early 2020. According to YouGov, 81% of these voters believe their party is best to deal with defense then; it is now 60 percent. In dealing with Brexit, support fell from 86% to 59%. Approval of his economic behavior is even worse, falling from 87 to 54 percent; from its tax policy, a decrease from 78 to 49 percent; from its educational policy, a decrease from 71 to 43 percent; its policy for law and order decreased from 85 to 57 percent; and immigration and asylum policy from 75 percent to 51 percent.
Other findings are even worse. In 2020, 85% of Conservative voters believe their party is competent; it is now only 35 percent. Only eight percent believe that Tories participate on their own; now 40 percent do. Then seven percent think the party is out of touch; now 48 percent do.
YouGov’s findings for conservative voters in the south of England outside London – the Blue Wall – are even worse. There, only 28% believe that the party is best prepared to deal with the consequences of Brexit; 27% value their economic competence over other countries; 25% prefer its management to taxation, the same proportion that they think has a sense of purpose.
Also in the Blue Wall, 61 percent of conservative voters believe that the party is in it for itself, the same proportion considers it unreliable. Sixty-six percent think there is no connection. For a Conservative party that has to hold its heart if it wants to have a chance of winning a new term, those numbers are appalling. If Labor gained a charismatic leader and vision, the Tories would cross the line without a return.
Traditional conservative voters have some idea of conservatism and the seriousness and fairness with which MPs and especially ministers must behave in public life. They expect them to abide by the constitution, the written and unwritten rules of parliamentary and political conduct, and to keep the rule of law sacred. These assumptions and expectations were shattered, and Tiverton’s Tory candidate was overwhelmed when he tried to defend Mr. Johnson’s integrity. He and his chancellor broke the law, but saw no reason to resign. In this they were supported by the whole cabinet and almost the whole government, none of whom thought that this violation of the law was worth worrying about. Only one junior colleague, the Minister of Justice, Lord Wolfson, felt unable to remain in government because of the attitude he showed towards the rule of law.
In this, whether they realized it or not – and it is no secret that some, probably including Mr. Dowden, did – these leading conservatives were madly lost in ordinary feelings. The Tiverton result suggests that even the “wild” can be an understatement. The values of “decent” conservative voters preclude the approval of violations of the law, especially laws that so many of them strictly adhered to, despite the sometimes heavy personal cost. They also do not include simply bending, breaking and ignoring the rules in the way that led to the resignation of Lord Hyde, a former government ethics adviser, the penultimate week.
However, it was not only moral and ethical shortcomings or the tactical voting that took place in both by-elections that caused the vote to fail. Her main voice believes that the party is performing quite poorly as a conservative. This is despite the rhetorical boom for party favors such as high schools and the imperial measurements that followed the prime minister’s poor performance in the no-confidence vote three weeks ago, when 148 of his deputies rejected him. Economic governance is particularly irritating to the main vote. Pandemic or not, the Conservatives were chosen to cut taxes and the size of the state and failed.
The business community, whose support for the Tories is crucial, is outraged by the planned increase in corporate tax from 19 to 25 percent. In a repeat of Heath’s era in the 1970s, the government blamed unions for the sharp rise in inflation – which, as wrong as the current waves of industrial action are, are not responsible for printing money and expanding the money supply. The government is and, as in the 1970s, when Heath also corrupted the currency, it remains the main cause of inflation. It’s just that public spending is still too high; if the economy is to recover, the non-productive sectors of the economy must be reduced and the money they are currently absorbing must be redirected to the productive sectors. Real growth cannot be achieved in any other way, and many key Tory voters, especially those working in the private sector, know this.
What seemed to be a commendable start to the pandemic in 2020 has become not only a violation of the law, but also an accusation of corruptly awarding contracts for often useless personal protective equipment, borrowing huge sums of money to pay people to be unproductive, engaging in a level of government intervention in people’s lives, which, despite the dangers of Kovid, many conservatives find unacceptable and wasteful. A public investigation has been promised; there are no signs of starting, which raises suspicions that ministers want to avoid responsibility for their behavior in the crisis for as long as possible. In many other areas, there is rhetoric rather than action and deviation, rather than real determination.
With his resignation in principle – albeit perhaps too late – Mr Dowden has shown character and is likely to secure his long-term career at the front with a new leader. If his party wants to retain power, others must do the same.
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