Democrats and Republicans are divided over how much the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, the iconic 1973 abortion case, will affect Senate race, but early research suggests it may led to change in several key countries.
Republicans feel confident in early November that President Biden’s low approval rating will help Republican candidates. But the court’s decision to take away a constitutional right that has existed for 50 years gives Democrats a powerful topic of conversation.
A poll of 800 voters in the states on the Senate battlefield, conducted on behalf of Demand Justice, a progressive group that supports Supreme Court reform, found that Democrats are more court-focused than Republicans, 69 percent to 60 percent. liberals are more involved in court than conservatives, 73 percent to 63 percent.
A poll conducted by Hart Research Associates from June 7-11, ahead of Roe’s annulment decision and published on Tuesday, found that 56 percent of voters wanted the court to support Roe, while 27 percent wanted it overturned.
Here are six states where the Supreme Court ruling could tip the scales in November:
Wisconsin
The Planned Parenthood Action Fund launched an advertising campaign in Wisconsin on Tuesday, highlighting the achievements of incumbent Senator Ron Johnson (R) on abortion rights. Recent polls show that he is essentially tied to his Democratic rivals.
Johnson was one of a group of Republicans in the Senate who signed an amicus protocol in July calling on the courts to review and repeal Rowe, in whole or in part. The second-term senator has been criticized for saying people should relocate if they don’t like abortion laws in their state.
Abortions in Wisconsin were banned due to a law from 1849, which remained in force and came into force again due to the decision of the Supreme Court on Friday in the case of Dobbs against Jackson Women’s Health Organization.
Democratic Gov. Tony Evers said he would pardon anyone charged under the 1849 law.
However, state clinics stopped abortions on Friday after the ruling, and experts say the risk of prosecution will significantly worsen abortion services, as patients and doctors could face prosecution after Evers leaves office.
Johnson’s opponent in the general election will not be known before the state election on August 9.
North Carolina
Representative Ted Bud, the Republican candidate for the Senate, praised Friday’s court ruling as a “historic victory.”
He also signed the amicus document, calling on the courts to review and overturn Rowe v. Wade, and praised the “creativity” of a Texas law that bans six-week abortions and gives private citizens the right to enforce the law.
Bud called the Texas Heart Rate Act a “monumental step forward in the unborn life movement.”
North Carolina is among the states in the south with the strongest support for abortion rights, and abortion is legal there during the first 20 weeks of pregnancy.
Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper has the right to veto new restrictions on abortion by Republican-controlled lawmakers.
A Meredith College poll in North Carolina in April found that nearly 53 percent wanted to keep abortion legal until the 24th week of pregnancy, and 62 percent said it should be allowed until at least the 15th. week of pregnancy.
Democrats’ higher turnout due to interest in abortion rights could help Senate Democratic nominee Cherry Beasley.
Pennsylvania
Gov. Tom Wolfe (D) promised earlier this year to veto six different abortion bills introduced by Republican members of the General Assembly, giving the battle for abortion rights high credibility in the upcoming elections in November.
Republican Senate candidate Mehmet Oz is campaigning as 100% against abortion, but supports access to abortion in cases of rape, incest and when the mother’s life is in danger.
Conservatives in Pennsylvania are also pushing for a constitutional amendment by the state to ensure that the right to abortion is not enshrined in the U.S. Constitution, and Republican Gov. Doug Mastriano has introduced a bill on heart rate in the U.S. Senate in 2019 that will ban abortions after six weeks.
Lt. Gov. John Feterman, the Democratic nominee for the Senate, said in a statement: “The right to abortion will be on the ballot this November in Pennsylvania.”
Currently, abortions are legal in the country for up to 24 weeks.
Arizona
The three leading Republican candidates running against incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly (D) backed the annulment of the Rowe v. Wade trial, giving Democrats ammunition in the fall.
Arizona has a 1901 law banning abortion unless it is necessary to save a mother’s life. Gov. Doug Ducy signed a law banning abortion in 15 weeks in March, creating some confusion about which law will set a precedent.
Abortion protesters rallied in Phoenix, Flagstaff and Tucson after a court ruled in Dobbs.
Police use tear gas against protesters in front of the fenced state of Capitol in Phoenix.
An OH Predictive Insights survey of more than 900 registered voters in Arizona in May found that 41 percent said abortion should be legal under all circumstances, 46 percent said it should be legal under certain circumstances, and 13 percent said that it must be illegal in all circumstances.
Three out of five Arizona voters said they would be strongly or somewhat influenced by the position of an abortion candidate.
Georgia
Gov. Brian Kemp signed a six-week abortion ban in 2019, one of the most restrictive in the country.
This law was delayed while courts waited to see the outcome of the Dobbs case, and now Georgia’s Attorney General Chris Carr (R) is pushing for it to take effect.
An Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll in January found that more than two-thirds of voters in Georgia and half of Republican voters were against Rowe’s ouster.
Republican Senate nominee Herschel Walker said in May that she wanted to ban abortion without exception.
Senator Rafael Warnock (D) voted last month to improve legislation to codify abortion rights.
“In general, we are talking about many competitions where the contrast is clear. See voters in Georgia. Nearly 70 percent of voters in Georgia opposed the abolition of Roe, and this is even stronger among black voters. Eight or seven [percent] from black voters in Georgia opposed the abolition of Roe. Seventy-four [percent] are against the abortion law in Georgia, “said Sam Lau, a spokesman for Planned Parenthood Votes.
Nevada
Senate Republican nominee Adam Laxalt said “Rowe v. Wade has always been wrong” and called the cancellation of the iconic abortion case a “historic victory”.
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However, abortion rights are strongly protected in Nevada, which codified them in law more than three decades ago.
Nevada residents voted in a referendum in 1990 allowing abortions in the first 24 weeks of pregnancy.
A survey of 770 registered voters in Nevada in October found that 69% were in favor of abortion, while 31% were against abortion.
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