“All the information to date points to the need to prepare for the possibility of significant transmission in the coming weeks,” Barbara Ferrer, director of the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, warned today.
That’s saying something, given that Los Angeles yesterday reported 6,529 daily Covid infections — nearly the highest total seen in the county since early February — and already has a 7-day positive test rate of 13 .8%. That’s almost a full point in 24 hours from yesterday’s 12.9% and more than double from just over two weeks ago at 6.5%. For a number that is not only a percentage of the total number of tests, but also a 7-day average, these are huge jumps.
Los Angeles film and TV productions must now require indoor masking as Covid numbers reach ‘trigger escalation’ threshold, LA official says
The county’s test numbers are lower, Ferrer said, because they don’t include the results from the over-the-counter kits that many now use.
The increased daily rate of positive tests “likely represents the higher rate of transmission that is associated with the highly contagious sub-variants of Covid and also falls in the routine testing in schools”, which was much more comprehensive than in the community as a whole and thus includes many that would not normally be tested.
The 7-day average number of new Covid-related hospitalizations is now 109 per day. Ferrer called that a “staggering increase” from the 84 new cases a day reported last week. Today’s average for new hospitalizations is also 78% higher than it was just a month ago.
Now there is renewed concern about the growing strain on the health system.
The raw number of new Covid-related cases in area hospitals rose to an effective four-month high (as of February 3) of 808. The 7-day average of such hospitalizations is now 8.1 per 100,000 residents. That’s up from 6.6 new daily Covid admissions per 100,000 residents just yesterday. If that number reaches 10 per 100,000 and stays there for two weeks, Los Angeles public health officials said they will reinstate the mandate for public indoor masks. The current forecast is for this to happen by July 19.
But there are other variables.
“With the more contagious ones [BA.4 and BA.5] options where people are taking less precautions and we’re coming into a holiday weekend, that could really … lead to an increase in cases,” Ferrer said.
“People are not heeding our recommendations for people to put their masks back indoors now,” she continued. “I’m just suggesting that everyone do their part.”
LACDPH
Add Comment