- The chance of reviving the Iran nuclear deal appears slim
- The failure of the talks could trigger another regional war
- Tehran wants to keep the diplomatic ball rolling
- Israel and the Gulf states share concerns about Tehran’s nuclear work
- Disagreements remain over assurances, sanctions
DUBAI, July 1 (Reuters) – The specter of an emerging Arab-Israeli bloc that could tip the balance of power in the Middle East even more than Iran has the Islamic Republic pursuing nuclear talks with world powers with renewed determination, officials and analysts said. .
Indirect talks in Qatar between Tehran and Washington to salvage a 2015 nuclear pact ended on Wednesday without progress. Iran has questioned the United States’ resolve, and Washington has called on Tehran to back down from additional demands.
But the difficulty of negotiations has not deterred Iran, two officials and a politician, all Iranians, told Reuters, adding that the hardline Iranian establishment was keen to pursue diplomacy.
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A deal would see the lifting of sanctions that have shackled its economy, eventually reviving oil exports to roughly 2.8 million barrels per day (bpd) delivered before sanctions were reimposed, from under one million now.
For Iran, the unfavorable alternative could be war in a region where geopolitical changes could translate into a US-led alliance hostile to Tehran, officials and a politician said.
Growing concerns about warming relations between Israel and its former Arab enemies, including normalization agreements between Israel and some Arab nations known as the Abraham Accords, have kept Tehran’s diplomatic ball rolling.
“The region is changing, alliances are changing. Israel is normalizing ties with Arab countries and the Americans support all these developments,” said a senior Iranian official close to Iran’s top leadership.
“These are serious threats that must be thwarted. Our enemies are praying to God for the end of the nuclear talks. But that is not going to happen.”
To keep talks alive, almost two weeks before US President Joe Biden visits Israel and Saudi Arabia, Iran has agreed to hold talks in Doha aimed at finding a diplomatic solution to the impasse. Read more
“The message of the Doha meeting to the Gulf states was simple: contrary to what Israel claims, Iran believes in diplomacy as a solution to all issues, from nuclear to regional and beyond,” said another Iranian official.
After talks in Doha collapsed, diplomats said there would be more “talks about negotiations”.
UNION FOR AIR DEFENSE
“There is a real cost to declaring failure. And that price inevitably rises with each attempted (and failed) diplomatic foray, as prospects for a deal narrow and the temptation for a risky, confrontational alternative grows,” said Ali Vaez, senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group.
Israel is building a US-sponsored regional air defense alliance, Israel’s defense minister said this month, adding that the apparatus has already thwarted attempted Iranian attacks.
Drawing closer in recent years to US-allied Arab states that worry Iran could become a new regional hegemon hostile to their interests, Israel has offered defense cooperation.
Washington hopes that more cooperation will further integrate Israel into the region. It could also precede more normalization with Israel, including from Saudi Arabia, following Abraham’s agreements with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain in 2020.
Widely believed to possess the only nuclear weapon in the Middle East, but which sees Iran as an existential threat, Israel has threatened to attack Iranian nuclear sites if diplomacy fails to curb Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.
Iran, for its part, will seek to weaken any regional anti-Tehran bloc, said Sanam Vakil, an analyst at Britain’s Chatham House, adding that it will seek “opportunistic ways to divide regional states and penetrate this alliance if it develops.” .
Iran has long said its uranium enrichment program, a potential path to nuclear weapons, is for peaceful purposes only and has vowed a “crushing response” to any Israeli aggression. Under the 2015 agreement, Iran curbed the program in exchange for relief from economic sanctions.
“DO NOT RUSH”
After all, Tehran wants a “good” deal. But emboldened by high oil prices since Russia invaded Ukraine, Iran’s hardliners are betting that Tehran’s rapidly developing nuclear capabilities can pressure Washington into offering concessions.
“We are in no rush. With or without the deal, the Islamic Republic will survive. Our nuclear program is advancing every day. Time is on our side,” the second official said. “But we want a deal that 100% serves our national interests. We want a good deal.”
Then-US President Donald Trump pulled out of the agreement in 2018 and reimposed US sanctions. In response, Tehran violated the deal in several ways, including by restoring stockpiles of enriched uranium.
The general outline of the revived deal was essentially agreed in March after 11 months of indirect negotiations in Vienna.
But the talks then broke down, largely because of Tehran’s demand that Washington remove its Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from the US terrorist list and the US’s refusal to do so, arguing that it was outside the scope of reviving the agreement.
The IRGC is Iran’s most powerful military force and answers to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Republicans in the United States have argued that removing the FTO label would show that the Democratic administration is soft on terrorism, a charge that US officials deny.
IRGC SANCTIONS
One Iranian and one European official told Reuters the request had already been dropped, but two issues, including the sanctions, were still unresolved.
“We have sent messages to the Americans through intermediaries that the lifting of sanctions against the construction headquarters in Hatam al-Anbiya is essential to reaching an agreement,” said a hard-line Iranian security official, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The IRGC’s economic branch, Khatam al-Anbiya, controls a vast network of businesses ranging from oil and gas to construction.
Asked for comment, a State Department spokesman said: “We do not negotiate publicly and will not respond to speculation about Iran’s positions.”
Vaez said such demands are the clearest sign of Tehran’s inability or unwillingness to understand US political constraints. He said: “Tehran’s request for IRGC-related sanctions relief faces the same hurdle that delisting the Guards from the FTO faced.”
Iran also wants assurances that no US president will walk away from the deal, the same way Trump did. But Biden can’t promise that because the nuclear deal is a non-binding political agreement, not a legally binding treaty.
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Additional reporting by Arshad Mohammad and Defne Psaledakis in Washington; Written by Parisa Hafezi Editing by Michael Giorgi and William McLean
Our standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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