One thing not many people are talking about with all the drama with the Brooklyn Nets is how much the Rockets will benefit. Houston owns Brooklyn’s first-round picks in 2024 and 2026, as well as the right to trade first-round picks to the Nets in 2023, 2025 and 2027. If the Nets deteriorate, that seems certain after Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving to be traded, those photos Houston owns suddenly become much more valuable.
That makes Houston just one of many offseason winners as we head into Day 4 of free agency. We’ll slowly factor in draft scores as we compile this complete list of 2022 offseason winners and losers. This post will continue to be updated. Here’s what we have so far.
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Winner: Boston Celtics
After coming within two wins of the NBA championship, the Celtics went out and picked up Danilo Gallinari, who cleared waivers after being released by San Antonio, and Malcolm Brogdon in a deal with the Pacers, who brought back Daniel Theis, Aaron Nesmith, Nick Stauskas, Malik Fitts , Juwan Morgan and a 2023 first-round pick from Boston.
All of those pieces are very costly for Boston, which essentially got Brogdon for a first-round pick that will likely land in the mid-to-late 20s. Brogdon is really good. He adds to Boston’s ridiculously stacked defense and is another ball-handler and scorer who lives well in a fluid, egalitarian offense. Shocker: Another Celtic who can shoot, create and defend. Good luck finding a hole in this team.
Winner: Atlanta Hawks
Trading Kevin Huerter, a good player, for a draft pick that may very well not be dealt until 2027 is questionable to me. Now, if that pick ends up being attached to, say, Clint Capela or John Collins, and the Hawks turn to another All-Star player (along with the Dejounte Murray move), then we’ll reevaluate. But right now, losing Huerter just because you have a position jam is tough. The Hawks would almost certainly prefer to keep Huerter over Bogdan Bogdanovic, but the latter doesn’t have the trade value to return a first-round pick, protected or otherwise.
Still, getting Murray from the Spurs makes this offseason a win for Atlanta. It can still get better, but Murray alone is a really nice addition. There are pessimistic points about pairing with Trae Young. Both thrive on the ball. Young is a more natural option to play without the ball, but he needs to be committed, and by committed I don’t mean just stand somewhere off the floor while Murray runs a pick and roll.
Young needs to move. Cut Moving. Become a Steph Curry-like fly to watch. I have my doubts about his willingness to do this. I envision more of him moving once off the screen without getting the ball, then standing around or at best running to the dribble-handoff driver. But even in that environment, the Hawks are the better team. Murray is a second guy who can get two feet in the paint, and he’s really improved his mid-range shooting.
Defensively, Murray is a long, athletic monster. He is a nightmare on the ball and a hawk, so to speak, off the ball. You’re playing with fire, even trying to run a DHO with his tracking. He’ll reach out with those hands on the inspector gadget and push that thing away in an instant. The Hawks already have two high-level guards in Murray and De’Andre Hunter. Onyeka Okongwu can be quite big on defense. If they do trade Collins or Capela, it should be for another two-way player to keep Young as the only real target in the starting lineup. Here’s how Trae Young’s team can survive on defense. No other weak links. Atlanta is taking steps to make that reality.
Winner: Houston Rockets
First, Jabari Smith slipped to Houston at No. 3 in the draft. Most mocks had Smith going No. 1 to Orlando and Paolo Banchero ending up with the Rockets. But Banchero went first, and Smith filled a big need in Houston with potential as an elite defender.
Banchero, an NBA-ready scorer who doesn’t perform as well as a defender, would have some overlap with Alperen Sengun, another highly skilled, offensive-minded big man. With Jalen Green emerging as the leading scorer, Houston is now on the offensive. Smith, who is also a great shooter and athlete, balances that out and it wouldn’t surprise anyone if he ends up being the best player in this class.
Additionally, the Rockets could be a major beneficiary of the Brooklyn Nets’ demise. Here’s a refresher on all the future draft picks Brooklyn sent to Houston in the James Harden deal:
When Houston made this deal, the belief was that Brooklyn was entering what would be an extended stretch of championship contention. This election, certainly at least until 2025, was reasonably expected to finish in the late 20s range.
Once Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving are traded, which seems like an inevitability, these picks will become much more valuable. Brooklyn has no incentive to give up exactly because they owe those picks to Houston, but even if they bring back established players in a Durant deal, those players won’t be Kevin Durant. Even if the picks end up in the mid-to-late-teens or even the low 20s, that’s still somewhere within 10 draft slots higher than expected for Houston.
The guy has played in 85 career games over three seasons, one of which he didn’t play a second, and just got a five-year contract extension that could be worth up to $231 million. I’m still not sure if this is a win for the Pelicans. If Zion plays and stays healthy for most of this contract, sure, that’s a win. New Orleans has a pretty damn good team.
But if Williamson is in and out of the lineup and the Pelicans never gain real traction in a loaded Western Conference and Zion’s trade value drops because he can’t stay healthy, it could end ugly for the Pels. But for Sion, no matter how it goes, he comes out filthy rich.
Winner: Minnesota Timberwolves
The Wolves gave up enough capital to strangle a hippo, but they got Rudy Gober. After signing Karl-Anthony Towns to a four-year, $224 million contract extension that keeps him in Minnesota for the next six years, it’s time for the Twin Towers in Minnesota, which sent Malik Beasley, Patrick Beverley, Walker Kessler back to Utah , Leandro Bolmaro , Jared Vanderbilt and multiple first-round picks: unprotected first-rounders in 2023, 2025 and 2027 and a protected top-five pick in 2029.
Gobert is a one-man defense, and notions of him losing defensive viability in the playoffs are greatly exaggerated. Given the Wolves’ ability to score the ball with Towns, Anthony Edwards and D’Angelo Russell, this suddenly looks like a really good team. This high price will have to be justified, but the risk is worth it. It’s been ages since the Wolves were actually a team to take this seriously, and I don’t subscribe to the theory that teams have to win a championship to justify this kind of gamble.
Indeed, the Wolves will not win the title next year. It’s probably a good bet they won’t win one during the Gobert era, however long that lasts. You know why? Because only one team wins it all. That doesn’t mean the other 29 did it wrong. For the Wolves, it’s a major boost to franchise energy, building on the momentum they’ve already created with the drafting of Anthony Edwards and last year’s playoff run.
Same as the Hawks trading for Dejounte Murray. They gave up a ton. They probably won’t win it all. But they are in the ring. They try to fight. Fans love this. The energy around the franchise feeds on itself. There’s no way you can’t be excited about Wolves going into next season, and when was the last time you could honestly say that?
The Gobert/Donovan Mitchell tandem had hit the ceiling. Everyone knew it. Jazz didn’t mess around. They cut bait with Gobert and brought back giant assets that they say they will use to build around Mitchell. If Mitchell ever wants out, he’ll bring back an even bigger howie, and Utah will be armed to the teeth for a full-scale rebuild.
Until then, with only Minnesota’s assets, Utah could enter the thick of many trade talks with four additional first-round picks and some nice salary cap space. It’s a win-win. Minnesota needed to make waves with a big move, and Utah needed a fresh start. They both succeeded.
Dallas lost Jalen Brunson and, unless it sparks a sneak attack for Kyrie Irving, shows no signs of replacing him with a high-quality creator. He was the second best player on a team that reached the conference finals and served as a more than capable player at times when Luka Doncic was out. I think Brunson was worth more money in the Mavericks next to Luca than he will be in New York. I’d like to see the Mavericks pursue Brogdon after losing Brunson, or just not lose Brunson in the first place.
Dallas traded for Christian Wood, who should pair well as a pick-and-roll/pop complement to Doncic, but treading water by taking Brunson and adding Wood feels like an effective step back in…
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