Emmanuel Macron’s victory in securing a second term as president of France will allow him to take a more aggressive approach to the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, analysts say.
In the run-up to the presidential election earlier this month, Macron avoided campaigns in favor of shuttle diplomacy, meeting regularly with presidents from both countries: Vladimir Zelensky of Ukraine and Vladimir Putin of Russia.
Although he failed to mediate peace, Macron’s cultivated role as a statesman ultimately worked in his favor.
He secured 58.6 percent compared to far-right Marin Le Pen, his main political rival, who previously had a warm relationship with Putin, who took 41.5 percent.
Samuel Ramani, a doctoral student in international relations at St. Anthony’s College at Oxford University, believes Macron will transform his rhetoric into action – as well as redouble diplomatic efforts.
“Now that Le Pen has lost, Macron will insist on a full energy embargo, as he has already said that France is not dependent on Russian gas,” he told Al Jazeera.
The French president will also “build on the recent transfers of heavy artillery to Ukraine and 100 million euros [$106m] with weapons sent during the first two months of the war. “
Once electoral pressure disappears, Macron “will have more freedom to engage diplomatically with Putin, while making French policy toward Russia stricter,” he added.
As France currently holds the presidency of the Council of the European Union, Macron’s re-election could also strengthen NATO and EU positions against Russia.
“Macron also supports EU integration and is one of the main sponsors of a common defense strategy, and the current conflict is an important test of his vision,” said Pierluigi Paganini, a cybersecurity and intelligence expert in Italy.
“Macron has always maintained EU autonomy and said his operation should complement NATO’s territorial defense.
“Delicate balance”
Macron’s meeting with Putin in the Kremlin in early February, before the invasion began, was ridiculed on social media – with images showing the two world leaders sitting at opposite ends of a long table.
Since then, he has regularly registered with the Russian president, holding long hours of talks that have failed to change the course of the war.
Josephine Staron, director of international relations at the Paris-based think tank Synopia, said Macron would not suspend talks with Putin unless the conflict escalated sharply.
“Unlike other countries, Macron has been a little more careful since the start of the war and has not insulted Putin, for example, as US President Joe Biden did,” she said.
Geographical proximity is one of the reasons for France’s caution, and the fact that it is a nuclear power in dialogue with Russia – also a nuclear member – is another.
“If France says Putin has crossed the red line, then as a nuclear power, what would that mean for France?” What would be his next step? ”She asked.
French President Emmanuel Macron (right) meets with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Moscow on February 7, 2022 for talks in a bid to find a common language for Ukraine and NATO. [File: Sputnik/AFP]
Taking a firmer stance on Russia as the war continues and spreads to neighboring regions, EU countries and Washington are sending more weapons to Ukraine.
On Tuesday, Germany gave the go-ahead for the transfer of armored vehicles equipped with anti-aircraft guns, and last week, days before winning the election, Macron said France was sending heavy artillery – Caesar howitzers, Milan anti-tank missiles and thousands shells – to Ukraine.
Staron warned that open EU support for Zelensky could be interpreted by Putin as a “commitment to war”, saying the bloc should act with caution, especially after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s comments Monday on the conflict escalated into a third world war. war.
“There are two solutions,” she said. “Stay completely neutral or help Ukraine – but not to the point where we will cross the red line, which, as Putin said, will start a war against Russia.
“It’s a delicate balance.”
Oil and gas embargo
Many fear the danger of escalating the conflict if neighboring countries are forced into battle, as the recent alleged bombings in the Russian-backed Transnistrian region of Moldova have shown.
The United States has previously warned that Russian forces could launch operations under a false flag to create a pretext for invading other nations, accusations that Moscow has denied.
If the conflict escalates, the EU could finally give in to what Zelenksiy has been pushing for months: an oil and gas embargo.
A gas dispute erupted on Wednesday after Russia’s Gazprom cut off supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, saying the two nations had not paid in rubles, a move Moscow demanded after being hit by Western sanctions.
Although France is much less dependent on gas from Russia than other European countries, the shutdown of energy pipelines will be devastating for the continent.
In addition, the effects of the oil embargo are likely to lead to a recession in Europe, Paganini said
“While the United States, the EU, the United Kingdom and other countries have sanctioned Russia, Russia’s export earnings have not declined since the invasion,” he said.
“Even if European governments agreed to stop importing Russian coal in August, that is not enough. Oil prices will rise worldwide. “
The use of alternative oil supplies from the Middle East and Africa would take time, which in turn would force European countries to adopt energy policies characterized by austerity, he added.
Given these risks, it is unlikely that the EU will reach a full agreement on such measures, especially knowing that some countries will be disproportionately affected.
“The French oil and gas embargo would be a major step towards isolating Russia, but as other major powers, such as Germany and Italy, hesitate and smaller countries, such as Hungary, oppose it, the EU’s consensus will be very difficult to is achieved. “Ramani said.
Add Comment