As British Columbia’s independent COVID-19 modeling group predicts another wave of infections will sweep through the province and peak in August, weekly data released Thursday by the British Columbia Center for Disease Control show the beginning on the jump.
For the first time in two months, the number of coronavirus patients in British Columbia hospitals increased this week. There were 369 in hospital, including 36 in intensive care, as of Thursday.
This graphic shows the number of people in hospital with COVID-19 on Thursday in British Columbia since the province switched to a “hospital count” model in January. (CTV)
The BCCDC reports a COVID-related hospitalization as anyone who tests positive for COVID-19 upon admission to the hospital, even if the illness is not the primary reason the patient requires hospital care.
Since the province switched to this “hospital count” model of tracking hospitalizations in January, there were as many as 985 COVID-positive patients and only 255 on Thursday.
The ongoing wave of infections is the third to be driven by a variant strain of the Omicron virus.
The independent modeling group predicts that the BA.5 subvariant – thought to be responsible for the majority of new cases – will fuel the latest surge in infections, although it is unclear how high the wave will reach or what impact it will have. has on BC’s already strained health care system.
The latest BCCDC report on the province’s coronavirus lineages did not isolate BA.5, but showed that the proportion of “other” variants – which includes BA.5, BA.4 and some strains of BA.2 – was increasing.
The “other” category accounted for roughly half of all coronavirus genomes sequenced in the province as of the week of June 19-25.
The BCCDC said BA.5 was increasing the fastest, accounting for about 40 percent of all cases in the week in question, which ended 10 days ago.
CASH AND WASTEWATER
Hospitalizations are usually a late indicator of transmission of COVID-19. They usually don’t start to rise or fall until a week or more after the number of infections starts to rise or fall.
However, this effect is somewhat offset in the BC data, as the number of patients in hospital is the only figure that the BCCDC releases in real time. All other data the center publishes each week is based on the most recently completed “epidemiological week”.
Thursday’s figures for infections and sewage monitoring are from the week of June 26 to July 2, meaning they are five days behind hospital patient numbers.
Still, the number of new cases reported for the period rose – the first time weekly cases have risen since the epidemiological week that ended on April 30.
The BCCDC reported 765 new laboratory-confirmed infections from June 26 to July 2, up from 620 the previous week.
These totals include only “laboratory-confirmed, laboratory-probable and epi-linked cases,” according to the BCCDC. They do not include the results of rapid at-home tests, which are the only type of testing available to most British Columbians, meaning the numbers released each week do not capture the overall spread of COVID-19 in the province.
Sewage data from the Lower Mainland can help approximate the trend in infections among people who do not meet the requirements for laboratory testing.
As of July 2, viral loads at four of the five Lower Mainland wastewater treatment plants showed increasing trends, with only the Lulu Island plant showing modest decreases in coronavirus concentrations, according to the BCCDC’s weekly “situation report.”
At the Lions Gate plant on the North Shore, viral loads increased 115 percent week-over-week, and at the Northwest Langley plant, they increased 251 percent over the past three weeks.
VACCINATIONS AND FUTURE PLANNING
Earlier this week, Health Minister Adrian Dix told reporters at a press conference that the province is preparing for a resurgence of COVID-19 in the fall and said everyone in British Columbia should expect to receive a booster dose of the vaccine at that time.
Dix is scheduled to hold another news conference with Dr. Penny Ballem on Friday afternoon, where he will discuss the province’s vaccination strategy.
Although vaccination has not prevented waves of infections caused by Omicron and its subvariants, it has greatly reduced the risk of severe disease outcomes.
BCCDC data show that a person with three or more doses of the vaccine is half as likely to be hospitalized as an unvaccinated person of the same age and about a third more likely to need resuscitation.
As cases and hospitalizations begin to rise again in British Columbia, the number of health care workers out of work due to illness is also increasing.
About 16,400 health care workers took at least one day off during the week of June 20, according to Dix, up from roughly 15,000 reported a few weeks ago.
Not all of those layoffs are caused by COVID-19, but workers in the industry — already facing burnout after more than two years of the pandemic — say the increased spread of the coronavirus is putting more stress on the system.
Hospital Workers Union policy and planning co-ordinator Mike Auld said healthcare workers were facing a “worrying” situation when it came to COVID-19.
“We’re seeing health care vacancies that we haven’t seen since late January,” he said. “Workers are really, really burned out.”
Old said a survey of their members found that one in four said their employers were not filling sick or other vacancies, and one in three were thinking of leaving health care in the next two years.
“It’s really important that members of our community understand that when they protect themselves from the transmission of COVID, they are also protecting our health care system,” he said. “Our healthcare workers need all the help they can get.”
Dix said the province is continuing efforts to strengthen the health system while hiring and training more workers.
Asked if the government would consider rolling back any of its previous COVID-related restrictions in the fall, Dix declined to rule it out.
“No option has been ruled out,” he said, adding that officials still recommend wearing a mask indoors.
“I am the Minister of Health, I have access to a lot of information about health; I wear masks in indoor public places,” Dix said.
With files from CTV News Vancouver’s Andrew Weichel and Maria Weisgarber
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