Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s lead over Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke has shrunk to just six percentage points, according to a new poll, as the race appears to tighten after the state’s mass shooting.
“As of right now, this (governor’s) race is shaping up to be more competitive than any race we’ve seen this century,” said pollster Jim Henson of the Texas Politics Project, which released the findings Tuesday.
The Lone Star State hasn’t seen a Democratic governor in nearly 30 years.
The new poll shows Abbott on 45% of the vote and O’Rourke on 39%. Another 10% are undecided or haven’t given enough thought to the race.
Abbott led O’Rourke by 11 points in April when the same group polled voters.
Between the two elections, the state experienced the horrific mass shooting on May 24 in Uvalde, Texas, where 19 elementary school children and two teachers were killed.
Texas Governor Greg Abbott has 45% of the vote and O’Rourke has 39%. AP/Joel Martinez
The latest poll was also conducted between June 16 and 24, when Texas voters were aware of the likelihood that the US Supreme Court would overturn Roe v. Wade.
Voters’ attitudes about abortion and the Uvalde shooting are reflected in the poll, Henson said. But he warned that current attitudes among voters may not be the same on Election Day.
“There is movement in the race and there will continue to be movement in the race,” Henson said, pointing to the 10 percent of voters who say they are undecided.
Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke speaks at a town hall event in Dallas, Texas. The Washington Post via Getty Images
“Many Texans are still not paying attention to the race for governor. Independents will continue to move through the October election.”
“If the focus remains on issues like gun control and abortion, that will benefit O’Rourke,” Henson predicted. “It’s a more competitive environment for Republicans if border security is the focus.”
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