Russian officials are learning from their mistakes as they launch a new offensive in eastern Ukraine, senior US officials warn.
The early stages of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s attack on Ukraine were marked by a series of embarrassing failures that raised questions about Russia’s military capabilities and whether it was equipped to actually win the war. The failures, which were numerous, surprised military analysts at every turn. Russian forces failed to take Kyiv and instead wandered outside the Ukrainian capital for weeks before withdrawing, blocked by fuel and supply shortages. Russian troops are abandoning weapons and vehicles across Ukraine as they withdraw. Some surrendered. And in the latest humiliation, Ukrainian missiles sank the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, Moscow.
But after regrouping, Russian forces appear to be better prepared for a ground offensive in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine, according to a senior US defense official.
Experts say the logistical problems plaguing Russia outside of Kyiv may not hinder the Donbass offensive so much. “They are trying to learn from their mistakes,” the official said during a conversation Tuesday. “The supply lines will be shorter and easier to operate than the Russians.”
However, there is no guarantee that Russia will win in the east, said Michael Coffman, director of the research program at the CNA-based National Research Program of the Russian National Security Research Organization.
“It remains to be seen … whether the Russian military has learned significantly from all the mistakes it made in the first month of the war,” Coffman told The Daily Beast. “You still see them operating without intelligence, you still see them driving only on open roads, and they don’t integrate support fires as they progress.”
The Pentagon added that a renewed offensive in the east could play to the advantage of the Ukrainians.
“There’s a real possibility that this will continue for a while, because both sides can be pretty much dug in here.”
This is “an area that Ukrainians know well. This is their country and they have been fighting for this area for eight years, so they know the terrain, “said the senior US defense official.
And Russian forces may fail to win a long and grueling battle – they have already lost a quarter of their troops, weapons and military equipment sent to Ukraine, according to an analysis by the Defense Ministry shared this week.
“It is very likely that the Russian military will be exhausted after this set of offensives,” Coffman said. “Even if they succeed in Donbass, they will hardly have the military capacity to continue the offensives in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the Pentagon is preparing for a prolonged confrontation. “There is a real possibility that this will continue for some time, because both countries can be quite dug in here,” said the senior US official.
As the battle enters a long game, the aid and equipment will have to continue to withstand the Ukrainians, military analysts told The Daily Beast.
While the Biden administration is providing aid – just days before Russian forces launch a new offensive in Donbass, the United States has announced a $ 800 million package for Ukraine – Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called for more aid.
Part of the aid package was aimed at helping Ukraine defeat Russia in the east, the Pentagon said this week, adding that flights continue to arrive in the region for Ukraine with US help on board. The senior defense official also noted that howitzers were arriving in the country, although the United States would not finish training Ukrainians in these artillery systems for another week.
Some parts of the package are expected to expire in just a week: Biden has sent only 40,000 artillery shots, for example, which will decrease in the coming days.
And while Ukrainian authorities warn that major battles are already under way, this could only be the beginning of an offensive in the east, according to a US military analysis, which could pave the way for more sustainable military aid.
“This is a prelude to larger offensive operations,” the senior U.S. defense official said Tuesday.
Ukraine needs both short-term aid and supplies for this long-term war, warned Coffman, a CNA researcher.
“Both Ukraine needs weapons in the immediate phase and must arm a large mobilized reserve – and must begin to develop capabilities to sustain the war. “No matter what happens in Donbass, the war may not end,” Coffman said.
Even Congress believes that the Biden administration needs to be strengthened at this crucial time, while creating a basis for long-term assistance to Ukraine. Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) called on the administration on Wednesday to move with more military aid.
“As long as Ukraine wins the battle for Kyiv, we must not become complacent,” Portman told The Daily Beast. “Russia’s renewed offensive still poses an existential threat to Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence, and we must act quickly to cut red tape, synchronize our efforts in interdepartmental organizations and provide Ukraine with the tools it needs to win this war.
Portman and several senators, including Senators Dick Durbin (D-IL), Jean Shahin (D-NH) and Roger Wicker (R-MS), urged Biden last week to appoint a Security Assistance Coordinator for Ukraine to increase the pace at which the administration is sending aid to Ukraine.
“Our calls for more defense would be much more effective with an American security coordinator for Ukraine,” Wicker told The Daily Beast. “We need to introduce modern weapons in Ukraine – tanks, missiles, Javelins and others. ”
“As Ukraine holds the line against Putin’s unprovoked invasion, delivering military equipment to our partners as quickly as possible is crucial, especially as Russian forces fight in key regions,” said Shahin, who is working to pass the Defense Law. of democracy in Ukraine, leasing. to speed up aid deliveries, told The Daily Beast.
The administration is expected to announce more aid to Ukraine soon, Biden suggested on Tuesday. And Matt Miller, a special adviser to the White House National Security Council, said Tuesday that another, broader package of aid would be announced soon.
However, Zelenski seems increasingly angry that help is not coming faster.
“Russia will not stop. “Arm us with enough heavy weapons and we will end this war sooner rather than later, with fewer Ukrainian civilians and soldiers maimed and killed,” Zelensky said. “Heavy weapons are the tools we need now to protect our civilians from air and artillery bombardment, to preserve our infrastructure and our cities.
Terry Wolfe, a retired three-star general, is joining the White House National Security Council to help coordinate security aid to Ukraine, The Daily Beast confirmed after the story was published.
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