PARIS (AP) – French President Emmanuel Macron is in the best position to win Sunday’s re-election for president, but his lead over far-right rival Marine Le Pen depends on a great deal of uncertainty: voters who could decide to stay at home.
Macron’s victory in this vote – which could have far-reaching consequences for Europe’s future direction and Western efforts to end the war in Ukraine – will make it the first French president in 20 years to win a second term.
All opinion polls in recent days have come close to victory for the 44-year-old pro-European centrist – but the difference over his nationalist rival varies considerably, from 6 to 15 percentage points, depending on the poll. Polls also predict a record high number of people who will either vote empty or not at all.
Overseas French territories have allowed voters to start casting ballots on Saturday in polling stations that range from the Caribbean coast of the Antilles to the savannas of French Guiana on the South American coast.
Back on the French mainland, workers gathered on Saturday under the Eiffel Tower, where Macron is expected to deliver his post-election speech, win or lose.
Voting in the first round in France on April 10th eliminated 10 other presidential candidates, and who will become the country’s next leader – Macron or Le Pen – will largely depend on what supporters of these losing candidates do on Sunday.
The issue is difficult, especially for left-wing voters who do not like Macron but do not want to see Le Pen in power. Macron has made numerous appeals to left-wing voters in recent days, hoping to secure their support.
“Think about what British citizens said a few hours before Brexit or (the people) in the United States before the Trump election: ‘I’m not going, what’s the point?'” I can tell you they were sorry the next day. Macron this week on France 5 TV.
“So, if you want to avoid the unthinkable … choose for yourself!” He urged hesitant French voters.
The two rivals fought in the last days before Sunday’s election, clashing in a one-on-one televised debate on Wednesday. No campaign is allowed on weekends and voting is prohibited.
Macron claims that the loan that Le Pen’s far-right party received in 2014 from a Czech-Russian bank made it unsuitable for working with Moscow amid its invasion of Ukraine. He also said that her plans to ban Muslim women in France from wearing headscarves in public would provoke a “civil war” in the country, which has the largest Muslim population in Western Europe.
“When someone explains to you that Islam is equal to Islamism, equal to terrorism is a problem, it is clearly called the far right,” Macron told France Inter radio on Friday.
In his victory speech in 2017, Macron promised to “do everything” during his five-year term, so that the French “no longer have a reason to vote for extremes.”
Five years later, this challenge has not been met. Le Pen consolidated his place on the French political scene after rebranding himself as less extreme.
This time, Le Pen’s campaign seeks to attract voters who are struggling with rising food and energy prices amid the aftermath of Russia’s war in Ukraine. The 53-year-old candidate said cutting living costs would be a top priority if she is elected France’s first female president.
She criticized Macron’s “disastrous” presidency in her latest rally in the northern city of Aras.
“I’m not even mentioning immigration or security, which I think every Frenchman can only note the failure of Macron’s policies … his economic record is also disastrous,” she said.
Political analyst Mark Lazar, head of the Historical Center at Sciences Po, said that even if Macron was re-elected, “there is a big problem,” he added. “Many of the people who will vote for Macron are not voting for this program, but because they reject Marine Le Pen.
He said that meant that Macron would face a “high level of mistrust” in the country.
Macron has promised to change the French economy to make it more independent while protecting social benefits. He said he would continue to push for a more powerful Europe.
His first term was shaken by the yellow vest protests against social injustice, the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. In particular, it forced Macron to postpone a key pension reform, which he said he would resume soon after his re-election, in order to gradually raise France’s minimum retirement age from 62 to 65. He says this is the only way to maintain retirement benefits.
The French presidential election is also being closely monitored abroad.
In several European newspapers on Thursday, center-left leaders of Germany, Spain and Portugal called on French voters to choose him over his nationalist rival. They issued a warning about “populists and the far right” who hold Putin “as an ideological and political model reproducing his chauvinistic ideas.”
Le Pen’s victory would be “a traumatic moment not only for France, but also for the European Union and international relations, especially with the United States,” Lazar said, noting that Le Pen “wants a distant relationship between France and the United States.”
In any case, Sunday’s winner will soon face another hurdle in governing France: legislative elections in June will decide who controls the majority of seats in the French National Assembly.
Already the battles promise to be tenacious.
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AP reporters Catherine Gashka and Jeffrey Schaefer contributed to this story.
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Follow the coverage of the French elections by the AP
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