The second – and final – round of voting sees incumbent centrist Emmanuel Macron facing nationalist and far-right candidate Marine Le Pen.
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French citizens go to the polls on Sunday in the presidential election amid the war in Ukraine and the crisis with the cost of living.
The second – and final – round of voting sees incumbent centrist Emmanuel Macron facing nationalist and far-right candidate Marine Le Pen. The same couple was also in the final runoff of the 2017 elections, but political commentators believe that Le Pen has improved his chances this time.
“While Macron is likely to be re-elected on Sunday, about 13-15% of voters remain undecided. Therefore, there is still room for surprises, “said Antonio Barroso, deputy director of research at Teneo on Thursday, in a research note.
Barroso said a potential path to Le Pen’s victory would be if a significant number of voters who chose hard-line candidate Jean-Luc Melanchon in the first round suddenly switched to the radical right instead of staying home or running for office. .
A poll on Thursday predicted that Macron would win the second round with 55% of the vote and Le Pen with 45%. However, this is a smaller difference compared to the final result of the elections in France in 2017. Then Macron crushed the party of Le Pen (National Front, which has since been rebranded at the National Rally) with 66.1% of the vote to 33.9 %.
“Opinion polls now give Macron a 55% to 45% advantage over Le Pen. In the last five years, research has not underestimated the support for Le Pen. But with up to 25 percent of voters still undecided earlier this week, we can’t drive a disappointing victory for Le Pen, analysts at Berenberg said in a research note Friday, adding that “many are at stake.” for France and the EU. “
Le Pen has softened his rhetoric on the European Union since 2017. She is no longer campaigning for France’s exit from the EU and the euro, saying she wants to transform the bloc into a union of nations – fundamentally changing the way it works. She also wants French troops to withdraw from NATO military command.
“Le Pen’s narrow approach to ‘France first’ and its desire to put its own French rules above EU rules would provoke constant struggles with the EU, damage the business climate and frighten foreign investors. France will retreat, “Berenberg analysts said.
They added: “It wants to preserve outdated economic structures through subsidies and regulations. She is toying with the idea of lowering the retirement age from 62 to 60 after 40 or 42 years of service, while Macron wants to raise the retirement age to 65. “
Television debate
In the last days of the campaign, Le Pen’s old ties with Russia and President Vladimir Putin resurfaced. In a key televised debate Wednesday against Macron, Le Pen was accused of being “dependent” on Russia.
Macron told Le Pen during the two-hour conversation: “When you talk to Russia, you talk to your banker,” according to a translation. In 2014, Le Pen’s party reportedly asked for loans from Russian banks, including the First Czech Russian Bank, a lender allegedly linked to the Kremlin. Le Pen dismissed the allegations Wednesday, saying “I am a completely free woman.”
Jim Shields, a professor of French politics at the University of Warwick, told CNBC on Wednesday that Macron had the difficult task of defending his five years in power, but also of presenting a new vision for the future.
“Le Pen can play the card of change much more this time than Macron,” he said. “What he has to do is show empathy, get off his high horse, try to show that he cares about the daily care of the people, that he is not the president of the rich that many blame him for.” , he added, citing rising inflation in France, which has become a pillar of Le Pen’s election campaign.
“Each of the two candidates must try to correct their perceived weakness. For Le Pen, lack of trust, for Macron, lack of connectivity, lack of empathy to attract new voters,” Shields said.
If Macron is re-elected, he will become the first incumbent president in two decades to return for a second term. Yields on the 10-year French government bond rose on the eve of the election, crossing the 1% threshold in early April amid broader fears about inflation and the war in Ukraine.
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