Ukraine’s protection is not enough. Russia’s victory on the battlefield is not enough. We must ensure – using all the means at our disposal – that Vladimir Putin may never again commit the atrocities that marked his two decades in power.
Fortunately, it became clear this week that the Biden administration recognized this need and made it a strategic center of its foreign and national security efforts.
On Monday, after visiting Ukraine with Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Defense Minister Lloyd Austin said: “We want to see Russia weakened to the point that it cannot do the things it did when it invaded Ukraine.
Although a high-ranking American official admitted to me (somewhat uneasily) that “Austin said the quiet part of the voice,” it soon became clear that the United States was publicly ready to take on the new goal of reversing Russia’s unprovoked, brutal escalation from its eight-year … the old war in Ukraine in a lasting and significant defeat for the Kremlin.
On Tuesday in Germany – at a meeting of the “Defense Advisory Group of Ukraine” (gathering of countries around the world committed to supporting Ukraine’s military efforts) – Secretary Austin said the United States believes Ukraine can win war with Russia. Austin’s spokesman, John Kirby, said: “We do not want Russia to be able to exert this kind of malicious influence in Europe or anywhere in the world.
Secretary Blinken – who said a month ago that the war in Ukraine would lead to a “strategic defeat” for Russia, and earlier this month said Russia had already suffered such a defeat – told Congress on Tuesday that he needed to fully fund the budget of the State Department in order to ensure Russia’s “strategic failure.” Senior National Security Council (NSC) officials reiterated that this is a new, explicit goal for the United States and its allies.
US statements are not just rhetoric. Talks with senior US State Department officials, the Pentagon and the White House emphasize that these goals are supported by multi-layered, intensive efforts by senior officials.
Providing all the necessary support to Ukraine is at the heart of the West’s efforts, and the coordination of these efforts will be the goal of the multinational advisory group, which will meet monthly in the future.
The effort is supported, of course, by the fact that Russia continues to make decisions that are not only morally reprehensible but also detrimental to its military and country.
The losses suffered by Russian forces are catastrophic. Estimates of those killed in the first two months of the war range from 15,000 to more than 20,000 – with tens of thousands more wounded or deserted. The Minister of Defense of the United Kingdom Ben Wallace estimated that these figures represent a 25% reduction in the combat capabilities of the Russian invasion.
Russia’s economy has been hit hard by sanctions. Forecasts suggest that the crisis will wipe out more than a decade and a half of Russian growth. Russia’s economy ministry estimates that the economy could shrink by between 8.8% and 12.4% this year.
Senior US officials have noted that Russia suffers from deep self-inflicted wounds in other ways. The failures of the battlefield and the clear commission of war crimes have made it increasingly difficult – even for those countries with which it has close ties or which sought to remain neutral at the start of this war – to gain any significant international support.
A senior US national security official said Russia’s disastrous performance has so far affected Moscow’s relations with China, India, Turkey and Israel. The official added that, as noted by the defeat of the Russian-backed far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen, those “who were linked to Russia” were not politically supported by Russia’s actions.
It should be noted that this did not prevent Senator Rand Paul from repeating Russian speaking points during the Senate hearings on Tuesday with Secretary Blinken. Paul claims that the explanation for the Russian invasion is related to the pressure of the Biden administration to accept Ukraine into NATO (a lie) and the fact that Ukraine is “part of Russia”.
Russia has intensified the damage to its international situation and its own economy this week by cutting off gas supplies to two European NATO countries – Poland and Bulgaria – because they refused to pay for energy supplies in rubles, as Moscow has demanded.
“Vladimir Putin started this war. He did so because in the past, world leaders were too weak, gullible or corrupt to oppose him – to deny him the chance to complicate previous aggression with further brutality.
At the same time, the Biden administration is actively working diplomatically to strengthen ties with both its allies and those countries that have been uncomfortable choosing a country in the conflict in Ukraine. The President, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, Secretary of State Blinken, Secretary Austin and their deputies hold regular, frequent meetings (virtual and live) with their counterparts in the G7, NATO, the EU, the Quartet, including the Indo-Pacific Partnership, including India. Japan, Australia and the United States) and through mechanisms such as the Advisory Group mentioned above. The effort will continue over the next six weeks with a series of high-level events, including an ASEAN summit in Washington, a trip to Japan and South Korea, a NATO summit and meetings with European leaders in Spain in June.
The United States is coordinating closely with Finland and Sweden, as well as with NATO partners, to help ensure that the two Scandinavian countries can quickly join the alliance – if they eventually choose to do so. The United States is also working to improve NATO’s capacity on the border with Russia.
In particular, a special initiative was taken to find areas of common interest with the “new non-aligned” countries.
According to the officials involved, this effort was not marked by a desire to challenge the decision of some countries not to support Ukraine’s military efforts, but instead to focus on ways in which the United States can provide assistance or address specific bilateral issues. . This will not only strengthen US ties, but also help to gain an advantage in what emerges as an era of strategic rivalry – not only with Russia but also with China.
These imperatives – consolidating Russia’s defeat in Ukraine and strengthening American alliances and friendships for an impending period of potential competition and periodic tensions – have largely displaced US counter-terrorism diplomatic priorities over the past two decades.
Thanks to Russia’s own mistakes and the efforts of the United States and its allies, the picture of Moscow and Putin seems bleak with each passing day – regardless of the final settlement of the war in Ukraine and without an American or NATO soldier firing.
When this war is over, NATO will be bigger. Russia’s border with NATO will grow by nearly a thousand miles, and if Finland and Sweden join NATO, its position on the Baltic Sea and the Arctic will be significantly weakened. NATO’s investment in defense will certainly increase, and NATO’s resources closer to Russia’s border will certainly increase. The United States alone has already provided more than $ 4 billion in security for Ukraine since President Biden took office, and a major new funding initiative is expected “very soon,” according to a senior State Department official.
Russia’s economy is in ruins and its future looks bleak as Europe seeks to end its dependence on Russian energy. Even sometimes lagging Germany is accelerating significantly.
Ukraine will certainly come out stronger with big promises of help, and a quick entry into the EU is already on the way.
Vladimir Putin started this war. He did so because in the past, world leaders were too weak, gullible or corrupt to oppose him – to deny him the chance to complicate previous aggression with further brutality. Now, finally, he has faced opposition from Ukraine via Brussels to Washington, which has decided not to repeat the mistakes of the past.
Their goal is as ambitious as it is worthy. But it deserves our support because it is the only path to lasting peace on Europe’s borders with Russia.
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