When relations between the West and Russia were bad, but not so bad: Russian President Vladimir Putin arrives in Switzerland for the 2021 US-Russia summit.
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The rattling of swords and the rhetoric between Moscow and the West have become significantly more aggressive this week, raising fears that a direct confrontation between the two power blocs may be more likely.
In the last few days alone, for example, Russia has cut off gas supplies to two European countries and warned the West several times that the risk of nuclear war is very “real.”
In addition, Russian President Vladimir Putin said any foreign intervention in Ukraine would provoke what he called a “lightning-fast” response from Moscow, while his foreign ministry warned NATO not to be patient.
Western officials, meanwhile, have rejected Russia’s “bravado” and “dangerous” rhetoric about nuclear war, with the United Kingdom urging Western allies to “double” their support for Ukraine.
CNBC asked strategists about the likelihood of a direct confrontation between Russia and the West. Here is what they said.
A nuclear attack?
Earlier this week, Russia’s foreign minister warned that the threat of nuclear war “cannot be underestimated” and said NATO’s arms supplies to Ukraine were tantamount to a military alliance involved in a proxy war with Russia.
Putin doubled his militant rhetoric on Wednesday, threatening “lightning” revenge against any country that intervened in the war in Ukraine and creating what he called “strategic threats to Russia.”
At the time, he seemed to be alluding to Russia’s arsenal of intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons when he warned that Russia could boast “response tools” that no one else can boast of now … we use them if necessary. “
But strategists told CNBC that Putin was playing on the West’s reluctance to take risks and that the chances of a nuclear war were slim.
“I think it’s currently out of the question of a nuclear war or a third World War that will really spill far beyond Ukraine’s borders,” Samuel Ramani, a geopolitical analyst and contributor to the Royal United Services Institute, told CNBC.
“If there is a border overflow at the moment, we are probably still looking at something like Moldova to be vulnerable to invasion,” he said.
US infantryman during a combined fire combat exercise at the Al-Galail range in Qatar, November 14, 2018.
Spc. Job Prevo US Army
He noted that Russia has a long history of using the “nuclear edge” as a way to prevent the West from pursuing security policies it does not like, with an escalation of hostile rhetoric aimed at deterring NATO members from delivering heavy weapons in Ukraine.
Moment of danger
However, Ramani noted that the threat from Russia could become more acute if he feels humiliated on the battlefield. In particular, military setbacks in Ukraine around 9 May could pose some danger. This is Russia’s Victory Day, the anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany by the Soviet Union in World War II.
“Putin has had a history of escalating unpredictability if he feels that Russia is humiliated in some way … and if there are major failures, especially around the 9th [of May] then there is a risk of indomitable action, “he said.” But there is also the logic of mutually guaranteed destruction, which we hope will overwhelm everyone. “
The threat of nuclear attacks is part of Putin’s “game book,” said William Alberke, director of strategy, technology and arms control at the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ think tank.
“Putin likes to take risks and believes he has a much greater appetite for risk than the West,” he told CNBC on Thursday. “He’s trying to use the old book for, ‘If I terrify you enough, you’ll back off,'” he said.
“Ultimately, if he uses nuclear weapons, even a demonstration strike, it would make Russia a global pariah,” Alberke said. He advised Western leaders: “We just need to be able to manage our risk and keep our nerves and not panic when he does something we might not expect.”
There are no indications that there will be a direct confrontation, Liviu Horowitz, a nuclear policy researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told CNBC.
“And the governments of the United States and Western Europe have repeatedly said they have no interest in escalating this conflict outside Ukraine, and I see nothing to suggest that NATO troops will be fighting in Ukraine any time soon.”
However, if a wider war breaks out, “NATO’s overall conventional capabilities exceed those of Russia,” he said. What is important now is that “all countries must avoid any steps that could create misunderstandings,” he said – steps that could lead to accidental and potentially catastrophic warfare.
Economic war
As NATO withdrew from providing any assistance to Ukraine that could be misinterpreted as a direct attack on Russia, Western allies continued to put pressure on Moscow.
In fact, the economic penalty against Russia is increasing day by day in the form of more sanctions against its business, key sectors and employees close to or under the Putin regime. Russia’s own economy ministry expects the economy to shrink by 8.8% in 2022 in the baseline scenario or 12.4% in the more conservative scenario, Reuters reported.
Russian forces patrolled Mariupol, Ukraine, where the Russian army took control, on April 22, 2022. “There is no end in sight to the Russian war in Ukraine and relations with the West are likely to continue to deteriorate,” said one analyst.
Leon Klein Anatolian Agency Getty Images
For its part, Russia is trying to inflict its own pain on European countries, which are awkwardly relying heavily on Russian natural gas imports. This week, it cut off supplies to Poland and Bulgaria because they refused to pay for gas in rubles. Russia’s move has been denounced as “blackmail” by the EU, but protected by Moscow.
Although direct confrontation between Russia and the West remains unlikely, a close Russian observer said Western governments must fill their populations with a “military mentality” to prepare them for the challenges they may face while economic consequences of the war continue. These include rising energy costs and disrupted supply chains and goods from Russia and Ukraine, among the world’s largest bread baskets.
“We will probably see a further escalation of the economic war, because in a sense this is a rational and logical move by both sides, which have a very difficult time fighting each other directly because of the risks of nuclear escalation,” said Maximilian Hess. from the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told CNBC on Thursday.
Russia will stop gas for more countries, will increase its demand for rubles, because it wants to ensure that the convertibility of the ruble remains open, and the West must prepare for this with a full military mentality, making the Western population understand that it will there are real economic costs and a real impact on the price of goods, the cost of living and inflation in the coming years. “
“If we do not accept this military mentality and apply it to the economic war, then it will be much easier for Putin to win and succeed there,” Hess said.
Other observation points
After more than two months of war, Russia has expanded its control over territories in eastern and southern Ukraine in an attempt to build a land bridge from Russia across the Donbass to its annexed Crimea. But it also suffered heavy losses in terms of manpower and weapons.
Meanwhile, the West continues to promise more and more support for Ukraine, and the country’s forces are strongly resisting Russian troops, signaling a protracted and bloody conflict. NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg warned on Thursday that the war in Ukraine could last for years.
Andrius Tursa, Teneo Intelligence’s adviser on Central and Eastern Europe, said that “there is no end in sight to Russia’s war in Ukraine and relations with the West are likely to continue to deteriorate.”
“Russia’s rhetoric is already shifting from anti-nationalist statements in Ukraine to an alleged (proxy) war with NATO. Numerous hotspots could further escalate tensions with the West,” he said. They include recent explosions in the breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria (which could serve as a pretext for a stronger Russian presence in the region) that could bring the conflict “dangerously close to NATO’s borders,” Tursa said in a note Wednesday.
“Moscow may also step up threats to NATO over arms supplies to Ukraine, especially since it is alleged that many military and energy facilities in Russia have been hit by Ukraine. Finally, Finland’s and Sweden’s decisions to join NATO will be seen by Moscow as another security threat to Russia and could increase military tensions in the Baltic region.
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