More than two months after they were revealed, changes to government student loans have already been reviewed and analyzed in detail, with experts concluding they will change the game of higher education in England – but not in the way ministers hope.
The long-awaited response to Augar’s 18-year review of education and funding, published in February, included 40-year payback periods and longer payback periods. While this is unlikely to prevent middle-class teenagers from seeking a degree, those from less favorable backgrounds may refrain from jeopardizing the supply of graduates in key sectors such as teaching and nursing, experts say.
An analysis by the Institute for Fiscal Research’s (IFS) think tank found that lower- and middle-income graduates would be hardest hit, paying £ 30,000 more than current graduates, with the payout spread over 40 years. But those with the highest incomes will pay £ 20,000 less as the progressive elements of the existing loan package are removed.
IFS also found that the proposals under consideration to limit loans to those with minimum exam grades could have a dramatic effect on who goes to university.
The requirement to pass the GCSE in English and Mathematics may have stopped 10% of recent students from accessing loans – effectively barring most of them from entering campus. The IFS found that the majority would be from disadvantaged families or ethnic minorities, precisely the groups that successive governments have encouraged to consider higher education.
Claire Crawford of the University College London Institute of Education said the government and taxpayers would “massively reduce the amount of investment they provide” by reimbursing more graduates. The share of graduates who repay their loans in full could increase from 25% to nearly 75%, according to IFS.
But whether the new repayment regime will deter future students in England depends on their calculations of whether they will be better or not.
“Those who might expect to continue and have relatively high incomes would think they would be even more encouraged to go to university as a result, because their payouts are projected to decline,” Crawford said. . “If you’re at the bottom of the spectrum, I guess that’s a more marginal solution. But it’s not very obvious. “
Crawford noted that many students have chosen subjects and courses that have low returns in terms of income, which suggests that there are reasons behind their decision other than income. “What we can conclude is that [existing] the price of the sticker doesn’t seem to deter people. So whether they are paying enough attention to this kind of major change affecting future payments is not clear, “she said.
Sheffield Hallam Vice-Chancellor Chris Husbands said there were two views among his colleagues on the potential effects. “The first view is that none of this will have any impact, that the cultural predisposition to go to university as a way to improve yourself is so deeply rooted that changes in the loan regime will not significantly affect the demand for places.
Opinion 2 is that this cultural predisposition is much stronger among the middle class than among the poorer households, and that although none of these interventions are decisive in themselves, drop by drop, drop by drop it is likely to have an effect on families in places like East Barnsley [reinforcing historically low rates of participation]”
The couple say ministers are less interested in expanding participation, “because they think the job is done” and are more concerned about costs, with current estimates of a 26% increase in student numbers over the next decade. As a result, the couple say politicians are like hotel guests in an unfamiliar shower, alternating between too hot and too cold as they nervously adjust the taps.
What worries me about all this is that the deteriorating conditions of trade in student loans, the minimum eligibility requirements and so on are a series of interventions that have the effect of bringing us back to the world of the 1940s or 1950s. those years where universities are essentially full of middle class people and poorer people don’t come in, “he said.
The couple said they could accept the case as minimum eligibility requirements, but they could act as barriers to the most disadvantaged because of Britain’s highly unequal performance at school level. “But I don’t think the sector has figured it out yet.”
While the government is improving its financial situation, it has done little to help students whose maintenance loans are declining in real terms. Funding for the university through tuition fees, which remains at £ 9,250 as of 2016, has also been eroded by inflation, although the government is increasing tuition subsidies for some high-priority subjects, such as healthcare.
Robin Mason, vice-chancellor at the University of Birmingham, said a prolonged freeze on fees could lead to a rebalancing between more selective universities and the rest of the sector, reversing a trend over the past decade that has led to more universities.
“I think you can bet on more selective universities that don’t want to expand their local students,” Mason said. “One part of government policy restricts supply at the upper end, and another part says it doesn’t want lower-value courses. And there will be a clash between the two, but it is a clash that is forced by different branches of politics. “
A spokesman for the Russell University group said frozen fees, rising costs and demand for places “will inevitably start to affect the quality and choice of students, especially for those subjects with the highest tuition costs” such as nurses and engineering.
“To protect the flow of high-level skills and jobs that will be crucial to our economic recovery, we would call on the government to work with the sector and find a long-term, financially sustainable approach to funding higher education that continues to expand. access to the university, “the spokesman said.
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