May brings Donald Trump the biggest test of his political influence since the end of his presidency, with candidates he backs running for the Republican primary, which will set the stage for the November midterm elections.
Trump-backed candidates in Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina are facing active and well-funded candidates seeking Republican nominations to run for the US Senate. The former president also backed a rival to Georgia’s incumbent Republican governor, who angered Trump by dismissing his false claims that his defeat in the 2020 election was the result of fraud.
They are among the most prominent – and in the case of the Senate, the most critical for the party – of the more than 150 candidates for federal, state and local contests that Trump backed this year. Their contests will be carefully scrutinized for any signs that Trump’s strong grip on his party may weaken as he flirts with possible participation in the White House in 2024.
“It’s important for him to maintain that perception, and perhaps the reality, that he’s the King he created in the Republican Party,” said Mike Duheim, a Republican strategist, warning: “Trump’s approval is still strong, but not invincible. “
Victories in May from some of Trump’s more controversial Senate elections, including former football star Herschel Walker in Georgia and television doctor Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, will not guarantee success in the Nov. 8 general election, and wrong steps could allow Democrats to keep your razor. a weak majority in the Senate.
Polls show that at least one of Trump’s May candidates, Senate nominee JD Vance in Ohio, is leading in Tuesday’s election. But Oz lags behind rival David McCormick ahead of the May 17 primary in Pennsylvania, and former Sen. David Purdue lags behind Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp in their May 24 game.
The poor performance of Trump-backed candidates may not diminish his support among his main supporters. A Reuters / Ipsos poll last week found that 83% of Republicans view the former president favorably, with 40% saying he is the leader who best represents their party, well ahead of 25% for his closest potential rival. nomination for 2024, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
“He has tens of millions of disgruntled voters across the country,” said Justin Safe of Ballard Partners, a Florida-based lobbying firm linked to Trump. Whatever happens to the candidates he approves, I don’t think it will change the popular opinion that he will still be the favorite for the 2024 GOP nomination.
Trump is expected to finalize a mid-term plan for spending his huge military basket after the Ohio and Pennsylvania races, sources told Reuters last month. Read the whole story
A Trump spokesman did not respond to a request for comment.
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Trump stunned Republicans in Ohio on April 15 by supporting Vance, a venture capitalist and author who was sharply critical of the former president.
More than 40 Republicans have written to Trump urging him not to support Vance, arguing that his story of criticism of Trump will be food for his Democratic opponent.
Following Trump’s approval, a Fox News poll showed Vance jumping 12 percentage points from a previous poll to show the support of 23% of primary voters, while opponent Josh Mandel lost 2 points to the poll by 18%. However, 25% of voters said they had not decided.
In Pennsylvania, Trump’s approval of Oz on April 9 did little to stir up polls, with the latest poll showing a close race with former hedge fund CEO McCormick.
In a poll by the University of Monmouth last week, 61 percent of Republicans in Pennsylvania said they were “very likely” to vote for McCormick, compared with 51 percent for Oz.
In North Carolina, polls show that Trump-backed Senate candidate Ted Bud is a leading rival to former Gov. Pat McCrory, although an overcrowded field in this race could lead to a run-off in July. Read the whole story
In Georgia, Trump opposed the Republican establishment by encouraging Purdue to challenge popular incumbent President Kemp, who angered Trump by certifying the results of the 2020 election, which showed President Joe Biden defeated him in the state.
Perdue lags behind Kemp by about 20 points in a recent study published in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
“Georgia will be the testing ground for what the rest of the country will see: it’s time to turn the page,” said Vice Governor Jeff Duncan, a Republican against Trump.
Even Trump’s belief in Perdue seems to waver. At a rally in Georgia in March, Trump turned to Purdue and said, “I hope, David, you’re going to be governor. Or I just wasted a hell of a lot of time tonight.”
(Report by Alexandra Ulmer in San Francisco and Jarrett Renshaw in Philadelphia; Editing by Scott Malone and Daniel Wallis)
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