During the 1997 general election, Roy Jenkins compared Tony Blair to a man carrying a Ming vase on a slippery floor, walking cautiously on his toes to win Labor.
The same description corresponds to Sinn Féin, as he approaches Thursday’s election to the Northern Ireland Assembly, cautiously heading for a potentially important victory. The reward is to become the largest party in the region and claim the post of prime minister – a symbolic and psychological breakthrough for Irish nationalism, given that Northern Ireland is destined to have a permanent union majority.
Sinn Fein’s response to this dizzying prospect was to run an over-nourished, disciplined campaign that minimizes blunders, surprises, or spontaneity — anything that could risk slipping.
“I’ve never seen Sinn Fein so cautious here, they’re really determined not to scare the horses,” said John Tonge, a professor of politics and authority in Northern Ireland at the University of Liverpool. “Their last big argument was two years ago. They had one every two months. They take it to new levels so as not to upset anyone. “
The party, which once acted as a mouthpiece for the IRA, has belittled its efforts for a united Ireland and focused on the cost of living, the health crisis and other bread and butter problems. During Easter, the leaders of the Republican Remembrance paid tribute to the victims and martyrs of the movement, without mentioning the name of the IRA.
Tactics are one of the reasons why the entire election campaign so far has been calm, with few sparks or memorable moments. Experts called him “dumb” and “boring.” The modest atmosphere undermines attempts by some unions to portray this as an existential battle for Northern Ireland’s place in the United Kingdom.
In a televised debate on Sunday night, Michelle O’Neill, the party’s leader in Northern Ireland, adhered to familiar remarks that seemed intended to allay any fears of becoming prime minister. “There was nothing terrible about Michelle O’Neill’s performance, but there was nothing memorable about it,” the Belfast Telegraph said.
Michelle O’Neill (second from left) with other party leaders and host Mark Mallet (right) at UTV’s election debate on Sunday. Photo: Press Eye / PA
For Sinn Fein, that would be a good result, given that O’Neill was under pressure to reveal that her party was seeking political engagement with Saoradh, a Republican party allegedly linked to the New IRA. “No gang involved in crime, armed action should exist today,” she said.
O’Neill’s debate was another example of Sinn Fein’s soft approach, said Deirdre Hienan, a professor of social policy at the University of Ulster. “They believe that the first ministerial post is in their hands. It is important for them not to make a mistake, not to get involved in controversy. “
That’s why the party has given John Finucaine, a high-profile lawyer and his Belfast North MP, an important role in the campaign, Hyann said. “I think this is a clever strategy. He is a middle-class professional, an articulated professional with experience in various communities. It was erected to attract non-aligned voters. “Mary Lou MacDonald, the Dublin-based party leader and other capable media performer, was also known.
Opinion polls suggest Sinn Fein will be the largest party, but far from a majority in Stormont’s 90-seat assembly, which will be elected by proportional representation in 18 five-member constituencies. The latest poll puts Sinn Fein at 26%, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) at 20%, the centrist Alliance at 14% and the smaller nationalist and unionist parties, which make up the majority.
Sinn Féin hopes that the prospect of O’Neill becoming prime minister will revive his base and that disregard for the DUP will encourage Alliance and Social Democratic and Labor (SDLP) voters to give transfers to Sinn Féin’s candidates. Avoiding traditional Irish Republican tropes, the party also hopes to encourage some unionists to abstain or at least not transfer votes to the DUP, which was crushed by Brexit and the Northern Ireland Protocol.
If common levels of support are replicated in places, the rules of power-sharing would make O’Neill eligible as prime minister and DUP leader, Jeffrey Donaldson, deputy prime minister, with equal power at the helm of the executive. all major parties.
Shin Fein has been in the executive branch since the Good Friday Agreement of 1998 and has served as deputy prime minister since 2007. In practice, overtaking the DUP and taking over as prime minister will not change the balance of power. Nor would it signal an increase in support for a united Ireland. Most voters support staying in the UK.
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But the symbolism will matter, Tonge said. “It would be huge. The stakes are really high. ” Sinn Fein will not insist on an immediate border survey – not least because it will almost certainly lose – but will use its victory to encourage momentum for a referendum, further supported by the party’s growing influence in the south, Tonge said.
Donaldson declined to say whether he would work in the executive branch with O’Neill as prime minister, which has fueled expectations for weeks or months of post-election controversy before a new chief executive is formed.
In addition to the Northern Ireland Protocol, which the trade union parties want removed or diluted, there will be disputes over the rules on compulsory power-sharing. The request helped conclude the Good Friday agreement, but is accused of locking the parties into dysfunctional leaders who quarrel, collapse and neglect services, especially healthcare. Critics say Stormont is not a vase for Ming, but rather a cracked vessel.
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