However, Western officials and analysts believe that this could change on May 9, a symbolic day for Russia, with a formal declaration of war, which will pave the way for Putin to step up his campaign.
May 9, known as “Victory Day” in Russia, marks the country’s defeat of the Nazis in 1945.
It is marked by a military parade in Moscow, and Russian leaders traditionally stand at Vladimir Lenin’s grave in Red Square to watch him.
“May 9 is aimed at boasting in front of the home crowd, intimidating the opposition and pleasing the dictator of the time,” James Nixie, director of the Russia-Eurasia program at Chatham House, told CNN.
Western officials have long believed that Putin will use the symbolic meaning and propaganda value of the day to declare either a military achievement in Ukraine, a major escalation of hostilities – or both.
The Russian president has a keen eye for symbolism after the invasion of Ukraine began the day after Defender of the Fatherland Day, another important military day in Russia.
Preparing for mobilization?
According to Oleg Ignatov, a senior analyst for Russia at Crisis Group, Putin has many options at the table. “Declaring war is the most difficult scenario,” he said.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky – who has not officially declared war on Russia – imposed martial law in Ukraine when the Russian invasion began in late February.
Another option for Putin is to adopt a Russian mobilization law, which can be used to initiate general or partial military mobilization “in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation or a direct threat of aggression, outbreak of armed conflict against the Russian Federation.” “
This would allow the government not only to gather troops, but also to put the country’s economy on a military footing.
According to Niksi, Russian forces have lost at least 15,000 troops since the start of the war and reinforcements will be needed if Moscow is to achieve its goals in Ukraine.
Mobilization could mean extending the number of soldiers currently in the armed forces, recruiting reservists or recruiting men of military age who have undergone military training, Ignatov said.
But this poses a major risk to the Putin government, he said.
“This would change the whole story of the Kremlin,” Ignatov said, adding that the move would force Putin to admit that the invasion of Ukraine did not go according to plan.
“This is a very risky decision,” Ignatov added, explaining that full-scale mobilization would also harm Russia’s struggling economy.
In addition, it could reduce support for Putin at home, as some Russians support the invasion of Ukraine without wanting to go and fight in person, the analyst said.
“If they announce a full-scale mobilization, some will not like it,” Ignatov said.
It is still possible for Putin to pass the mobilization law without officially declaring war on Ukraine, he said.
Putin could also impose martial law in Russia, suspend elections and further concentrate power in his hands, Ignatov said.
This will impose rules such as restrictions on the departure of men of military age, which may also prove unpopular, he added.
What else can happen?
If Putin does not declare war, he may look elsewhere to make a statement marking Victory Day.
Other options include annexing the breakaway territories of Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, imposing a major push on Odessa to the south, or declaring full control of the southern port city of Mariupol.
There are also indications that Russia may plan to declare and annex a “people’s republic” in the southeastern city of Kherson.
“He (Putin) will be able to say that the Russian army has had some victories in Ukraine,” Ignatov said. “He can try to use that date to strengthen his support.”
However, it is difficult to predict what Russia and its president will do, the analyst added.
“All decisions are made by one person and several of his advisers,” Ignatov said.
However, US State Department spokesman Ned Price said Monday that there is “a good reason to believe that the Russians will do everything possible to use” May 9 for propaganda purposes.
“We have seen the Russians really redouble their propaganda efforts, probably almost certainly, as a means of distracting attention from their tactical and strategic failures on the battlefield in Ukraine,” Price said at a briefing at the State Department on Monday.
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