Ontario computers see lead reduction with election campaign: poll

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Ontario Liberals break away from seemingly eternal two-way tie for second place with NDP

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May 5, 2022 • 3 hours ago • 4 minutes reading • 54 comments Left: Ontario’s Progressive Conservative leader Doug Ford, Ontario NDP leader Andrea Horvat and Ontario Liberal leader Stephen Del Duca. Photo by The Canadian Press / Files

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As the June provincial election campaign begins, new figures suggest support for Ontario’s current computers may be waning.

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The results of a new Leger / Postmedia survey show a 14-point lead previously enjoyed by the Tories, halved as the Ontario Liberals broke away from the seemingly eternal tie for second place with the NDP.

“This month we have seen (this lead) tighten, largely because the Liberals have picked up a little speed,” said Andrew Ens of Leger.

Taking into account the intentions to vote, voters in Ontario ranked first among respondents with 36 percent support, Liberals were second with 29 percent, and the NDP had 25 percent support.

In fourth place with five percent was the Green Party, followed by two percent for the New Blue Party, and all other parties caught three percent.

Support for personal computers in Ontario in April was 36 percent, with the Liberals at 25 percent and the NDP at 24 percent.

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Of those whose decisions are decided, 59 percent voted for the Tories, 45 percent voted for the NDP, 34 percent said they would support the Liberals, and 27 percent promised to vote for the Greens.

What is interesting about the figures for this month, Jens said, is the number of voters who are not so sure – with about half of the respondents saying they have not yet decided who they will vote for.

“It’s a little higher,” Jens said.

“For strategists in the back room, this is where campaigns really become important.”

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The Green Party represented the largest number of voters – 65 per cent – who said they could change their minds from now until election day.

This is compared to 59% of undecided Liberal voters, 57% of New Blue Party supporters, 51% for the NDP and 35% for the RS.

This indecision under the radar also manifests itself when respondents are asked who they think will win the election.

Forty-five percent of voters say they believe Doug Ford will win a second term, with “I don’t know” coming in second with 28 percent, Liberal Party leader Stephen Del Duca 15 percent and NDP leader Andrea Horvat with 12 percent.

While determined voters naturally believe their party leader has the best chance of winning, Ontario PC supporters believe Ford will return as prime minister with 91 percent.

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That’s compared to 44 percent of NDP voters who believe Horvat will win and 40 percent of liberals who believe Ontario’s next prime minister will be Del Duca.

Among determined PC voters who do not think their party will win, three percent believe Del Duca will win, less than one percent say Croatians, and six percent have refused to answer or have not.

Of the determined NDP voters who do not believe their party will win, 21 percent said Ford will win, followed by 12 percent for Del Duca and 23 percent did not.

Among liberal voters, 28% say Ford will win, followed by 6% for the NDP and 26% have not decided.

“Whether they really haven’t decided at the moment or are voting for a party but are lukewarm in their support for that party, the launch and these few early weeks will be important as people start to adjust and start thinking seriously about it.” which they will do, “said Ens.

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Most seem to be interested in election observation, with 60% of respondents saying they are closely monitoring the coverage – with men over 55 being most interested in the campaign.

Supporters of computer computers were the most engaged, with 72 percent focusing on election coverage several times a week.

Seventy percent of NDP supporters say they are watching closely, followed by 61 percent of Liberals and 39 percent of Greens.

While last month Horvat and Ford were tied for the most favorable leader by 39 percent, figures for this month are ahead of Horvat by 41 percent.

Del Duca increased by four points to 31 percent, while Greens leader Mike Schreiner remained at 20 percent.

However, the inconvenience outstripped the favor, with 53 per cent reporting an unfavorable impression of Ford, 42 per cent for Horvat and Del Duca and 36 per cent for Schreiner.

Fifty-two percent or respondents say they are unhappy with the Ford government, and only 22 percent approved the provincial election budget last week.

The Leger poll was conducted from April 29 to May 2 with the help of 1,000 randomly elected voters in Ontario, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent, 19 times out of 20.

bpassifiume@postmedia.com | Twitter: bryanpassifiume

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