Local elections are almost always mixed; expressing different points of view in different areas is part of the point of having local elections at all. But each year has its own broad trend.
In 2018, Labor and Conservatives were locked in a stalemate in the 2017 general election; in 2019, both major parties were affected by a wave of voters, and in 2021 the Conservatives put everyone in front of them. The local elections of 2022 were the first significant approval of Keir Starmer from the electorate.
The Labor performance was most spectacular in London, where few had expected Westminster to take over, in addition to Barnet and Wandsworth’s more anticipated gains. The impact was heightened because every seat on the London City Council was for elections and a large number of seats changed hands. Many councils in the rest of the country elected one-third of their members at once, so there was a limit to how much could be changed.
The Conservatives’ strong performance in 2021 will continue to influence these councils until these seats are re-elected in 2024. However, there were sometimes dramas such as the victory of Labor in Southampton or the Liberal Democrats in Hull, which seemed impressive even at this slow pace of change.
However, by-elections allow us to compare the performance of the parties from year to year. The turnout for Labor in May 2021 was about 6-7% in England outside London, which puts the party worthy of respect, but not 3-4 points ahead of the Conservatives, if translated into a national share of the vote. This is the second largest lead of Labor since 2001, after the peak year of Ed Miliband in 2012.
Labor’s advantage in 2022 may be greater than it may seem from the relatively small headline in terms of votes. One reason is that, unlike, say, the local elections in 2016 or 2014, the right is more or less united behind the Conservatives, not parting ways with Ukip. The Tories no longer have this reserve army of voters. The center-left is divided between Labor, Liberals and Greens. While this hinders building a solid lead in popular votes and winning seats on the council in this election, it gives Labor a range of potentially friendly tactical voters to draw from.
The other positive sign for Labor is that, at first glance, votes appear where Labor will find them useful. Labor support for the 2019 general election was very useless; with an equal deviation from this result, a huge vote from 1997 will be needed to give a majority to Labor in the House of Commons. The rather low swing to the north may be enough, given that many of the former places on the Red Wall are still marginal; Labor figures in the southern and eastern margins, such as Ipswich and Southampton Yichen, were stronger, with the biggest fluctuation of 2011 in some parts of the Midlands.
Labor was nearly wiped out in Dudley last year, winning three divisions against 21 for the Tories. But in 2022 he won 12, including two conservative divisions in 2018. Dudley is home to four traditionally marginal seats that brought back the vast majority of conservatives in the 2019 general election. If they return to the game, this parliamentary majority seems less impossible. The party will also take comfort in an (expected) fair in Scotland, where it must also make parliamentary gains.
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Worse Labor results usually come in areas where the party forms the municipal office and causes voters to resign due to local problems. There was no single beneficiary, as the Tories, Liberals, Greens, local parties and independents all benefited: the Conservatives in Tamside, the Liberals in Hull, the Greens in South Tyneside and the local parties and independents in areas scattered across the north. These losses seem serious enough to deny Labor a truly satisfactory net net profit. But this slip-up may not put many parliamentary seats at risk, because it is happening in places where Labor is already leading and focusing on local rather than national issues.
Conservatives, therefore, would be most unwise to take comfort in the small-looking Labor lead. They could also think that in places where voters knew they could send a powerful message – Wandsworth, Barnett, Southampton – they did so quickly, delivering a serious blow to Labor. It was a well-aimed shot in the direction of Downing Street.
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