The biggest fight will probably be for second place. The SNP has won the most seats in the last 10 Scottish elections, and few expect them to seriously falter here.
Although they continue to oppose the political burden, little room remains for Nicholas Sturgeon’s troops to grow. They will hope to strengthen their grip on the councils they lead and present strong arguments for forming administrations in more evenly divided areas.
The Conservatives achieved a huge result in 2017, more than doubling the number of seats, ahead of Labor.
But that set a high bar for a party that has had no trouble looking for it in recent months. If the Tories manage to keep losses to a minimum and cling to key advice, Douglas Ross can celebrate with a suitcase of wine.
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Scottish Labor leader Anas Sarwar takes campaign trail to Ayrshire ski resort Image caption: Scottish Labor leader Anas Sarwar takes campaign trail to Ayrshire ski resort
Labor, meanwhile, is desperate to regain second place in every measure they can get, whether it’s seats or first-vote votes. Here the bar is lower, given the absolute destruction of Labor in 2017. – Anas Sarwar needs something to gain momentum for his leadership and make his party look like a contender again.
The Liberal Democrats are on such a long road back to relevance, losing more than half of their seats in 2012. Alex Cole-Hamilton is another new leader who could build on some success with ordinary people, but expectations have been dashed after the party fell to four seats in last year’s Scottish Parliament elections.
The Greens, meanwhile, have been inspired by their move to government with the SNP in Holyrood and hope to increase their numbers enough to seal such pacts locally.
And the smaller parties involved, such as Alba and the Family Party, would probably be happy to win anything at all.
Alex Salmond’s outfit had several advisers before the vote, mostly SNP deserters – but each returnee would be the first party member to actually be elected under the Alba flag. After failing in last year’s Holyroy race, this is vital if Alba wants to prove his place in the Scottish political landscape.
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