Probably to the chagrin of the rest of Ontario, much of the provincial election race will take place – and will be won – in and around Toronto.
You can expect to see the leaders of the three major parties spend most of their time in and around the provincial capital, sociologists say, and for good reason: the Greater Toronto area, plus the Hamilton area, make up more than half of the 124 places are ready for grab on June 2.
“They will all spend a lot of time in the GTA,” said Eric Grenier, a survey analyst at TheWrit.ca who leads the Ontario poll follow-up to CBC News. “It really will be the place that will decide the election, as it always has been.”
But different parties are likely to take different approaches to the region.
Progressive Conservative leader Doug Ford hasn’t spent too much time campaigning in downtown Toronto in 2018, and he probably won’t either.
Progressive Conservative leader Doug Ford came to power by winning a ride in the suburbs of Toronto and the surrounding 905 communities. Computers must be held to these seats. (Chris Young / Canadian Press)
Computers moved to the majority last time, holding on to most rural riding (the party’s traditional stronghold), while seizing seats in the inner suburbs of Toronto and the surrounding area.
“They will always be fighting in urban areas – so if they don’t win the suburbs, they can’t win the seats they add to their rural base to form a government,” Grenier said. “So for computers, I think they’re going to stay there for a long time.”
This does not mean that the new Democrats and Liberals will give up without a fight.
NDP leader Andrea Horvath and Liberal leader Stephen Del Duca spent much of the first few days of their respective campaigns in Toronto.
And the NDP will work to maintain its seats in Brampton, a fast-growing city that has been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, something that has made healthcare a top priority in the election for many voters there.
The NDP and the Liberals will be in a fierce battle for many places in downtown Toronto – and even the Greens may be fighting for the core, as leader Michael Schneiner hopes to add at least a second MPP to Queen’s Park.
In the 2018 elections, the NDP took the seats in the core of the provincial capital – a ride that the Liberals hope to win this time.
Both parties will spend the first few weeks fighting “progressive primary elections” in search of an anti-Ford, progressive vote, said Darrell Bricker, chief executive of Ipsos Public Affairs.
Ontario NDP leader Andrea Horvat must also retain the seats her party won in 2018. In the last election, she took advantage of the mood of everyone but Ford of progressive voters. It is unclear whether there is a mood this time. (Tiana Martin / Canadian Press)
Last time, the NDP took advantage of getting the vote of everyone but Ford from the Ontario, hoping to prevent a PC government. This type of strategic vote is believed to have helped the NDP win so many seats in downtown Toronto, among other rides, such as the Ottawa Center, in 2018.
But this time, sentiment against Ford does not exist, at least as much as it did for former Liberal Prime Minister Kathleen Winn, sociologists say.
According to Frank Graves, president of EKOS Research, “there are a lot of people who don’t particularly like Ford” but are still willing to vote for the PC party, which has a solid lead in research at this early stage in the campaign.
Graves said the “visceral contempt” that haunts Win in 2018 “is not a factor at this time in this election. Ford is not suffering from this.”
The Ontario Liberal Party was wiped out in the 2018 election. The relatively unknown leader Stephen Del Duca must make a good first impression on voters, many of whom will see and hear him for the first time. (Cole Burston / Canadian Press)
Other viewing areas
Although the Toronto area is where the main action will take place, this does not mean that there are no other interesting competitions elsewhere in the province.
Parts of northern and southwestern Ontario may also take some action, especially by the NDP, which has held most of the seats in those regions for several terms, and the PC. Sociologists say workers in these rides can swing between new Democrats, with whom they agree on labor issues, and progressive conservatives, who tend to reflect their social values.
“It’s more about who people think they can connect with,” said Bricker of Ipsos, suggesting Ford could have an advantage there.
For Horvat, Grenier said, it could mean giving up riding where the NDP is not very competitive, focusing on keeping the seats her party already owns.
Here are just a few of the areas outside of Toronto to follow:
Peterborough-Cavarta: This ride has been a leader since 1977, so you should always watch for hints of where the political winds are blowing. Del Duca was already on Wednesday.
Hamilton East-Stone Creek: Four of the five rides in and around Hamilton, the hometown of NDP leader Horvat, are solid orange by the new Democrat. However, incumbent President Paul Miller was expelled from the party for “a pattern of anxious behavior.” Several high-ranking candidates are now vying, including a Hamilton Order holder, city councilor and former CFL player.
London-North Center: Although the NDP won a solid victory in 2018, it is largely due to disgruntled liberal voters in the ride, which was previously held by prominent Liberal Cabinet Minister Deb Matthews for 15 years. Computers now see this ride as something they can take, so the area can see some visits from leaders.
Ottawa West-Nepean: Riding was the narrowest race in the 2018 election. It was a stronghold of the Liberals for 15 years until 2018, when the PC candidate defeated the new Democrat by 175 votes. Liberals are pushing for the seat back, while the new Democrats are struggling to win it for the first time.
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