Now that Duterte’s successor election is a few days away, analysts say there is a possibility of restarting the Philippines’ relationship with the two great powers – and the result could change the balance of power in Asia.
The way this is being shaped can be reduced to the goals of current presidential leader Ferdinand Marcos Jr. – the son and namesake of the late ousted dictator of the Philippines – who is considered more friendly to China than his closest friend. rival Lenny Robredo, sitting vice president.
Who the Filipinos choose when they vote on Monday will have consequences far beyond the country’s borders.
For the United States, close ties with the Philippines, including the rotation of U.S. troops there under a two-decade agreement, are crucial to their strategy in the region, where Washington is seeking to counter Beijing’s growing footprint. The Philippines is at the forefront of China’s ambitions in the South China Sea, with Manila in recent years accusing Beijing of trying to intimidate its coast guard ships and assembling a “naval militia” to push its fishing boats. Beijing says large tracts of resource-rich water are its own, even after Manila challenged it in an international tribunal and won.
But Duterte did little to argue that the 2016 ruling, analysts say, and the extent to which the next Philippine president is using the ruling to repel an expanding China will send signals not only to leaders in other Southeast Asian nations. who challenge China’s territorial claims – – but also to Beijing.
“The Philippines is of great strategic importance to both (US and China). China is currently engrossed in domestic affairs, but is also continuing to expand in the South China Sea,” said Joshua Kurlantsik, Senior Southeast Asia Assistant to the Council. on Foreign Relations in New York.
“And the United States will definitely make a significant effort to connect with the one who leads the Philippines, simply for strategic reasons – the Philippines is crucial strategically and has just as close long-term ties,” he said.
Balancing act
Manila has long sought to balance its ties with these forces – or downplay them – and any president who comes to power will have to orient himself in relations with both, especially after Duterte’s pro-Chinese leanings.
Marcos, whose incumbent is Duterte’s daughter Sarah, has for years called on Manila to deal with Beijing bilaterally over territorial claims.
Critics see his position as respectful of China, and in recent months Marcos has met with Chinese Ambassador Huang Xilian.
Beijing has praised relations with Duterte since his first visit to China – described by Chinese leader Xi Jinping last month as an “ice-breaking journey marking a milestone in the history of China-Philippines relations”, and Xi also said China was “ready” To “constantly raise” the relationship.
The goodwill also seems to extend to Marcos, who has been building relations with Chinese Ambassador Huang Xilian in recent months. Huang said at an event in October that it was “a great honor” to meet with Marcos and that, like those who support China-Philippines ties, “together we are opening up a brighter future.”
As for the United States, one of the issues is a human rights lawsuit in the United States seeking compensation for the victims of the late, brutal regime of the elderly Marcos.
Analysts suggest that this could complicate any future presidential visit to the United States if Marcos wins. Although Marcos recently described relations with the United States as “special,” perceived White House disregard could push Marcos closer to Beijing.
But the extent to which he can lean toward China may be limited by the public, which wants to see a pragmatic but tougher line on China than Duterte, according to Richard Heydarian, a professor of political science at the Polytechnic University. The Philippines. Marcos will also have to run a military organization that is critical of China, he added.
(And for (Robredo), it also cannot take a confrontational policy towards China, because the reality is that the majority of Filipinos and the Philippine military even recognize the Philippines’ restrictions on opposing China … (and) many Filipinos also expressed their desire to maintain economically productive relations with China, “he said, adding that Robredo was also open to economic commitment, as long as it did not run counter to the sovereignty of the Philippines.
The last years of Duterte’s rule underscored the delicate balance as the president withdrew his own rhetoric against the United States, not only backing away from his promise to end the agreement on US forces’ presence in the country, but also hosting a major military exercise association. with American troops and the repulsion of the Chinese naval presence, amid a growing sense that China has not kept its promises to the Philippines.
“The reality is that China did not respond to President Duterte’s offensive … China’s investment promises, which were largely illusory, led Duterte to make many geopolitical concessions,” Heydarian said, adding that China continued to push for their own claims.
Uncertain future
It is not yet clear whether and to what extent Marcos will try to expand Duterte’s support for China, it is still unclear, experts say, citing a lack of detailed foreign policy – or information on who will run his foreign affairs.
But there are indications that Marcos, unlike Robredo, may be closer to Duterte when it comes to tackling the problems in the South China Sea.
During his campaign, Robredo made it clear that he would engage China in many ways, relying on cash with friendly nations, “to help a small country like the Philippines do what it takes to use the 2016 arbitration award ( The South China Sea) … (to his) national interest, “said Charmaine Misaluca-Willoughby, an associate professor of international studies at De La Sale University in Manila, Philippines.
To allow Robredo to make certain deals with China, such as a joint study of oil in the South China Sea, the “dollar stops” with whether China recognizes the court ruling on the Philippines’ claims, she added.
Marcos, too, in a debate earlier this year, seemed tough on China, saying he would send warships to the South China Sea to defend the Philippines’ territorial claims. But the lack of detail has raised questions about whether this is an empty statement. Instead, analysts cite his longstanding calls for bilateral resolution.
“Marcos has insisted that he will deal with China in a more bilateral way, which Beijing somehow wants … and puts the Philippines in a weaker position again,” said Aries Arugai, a visiting fellow at ISEAS’s Yusof Ishaq Institute in Singapore.
But Arugai also points to the balance issue, adding that even if Marcos pursues deeper relations with Beijing, it may not necessarily be at the expense of relations with the United States.
“Just like any other president of the Philippines, if he wins, (Marcos) will also try to turn to the United States, because whatever happens, the new president will have a chance to restart,” he said.
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